February 28, 2014 Bracket

        WEST-Anaheim                                           SOUTH-Memphis
     San Diego                                                       Orlando
  1 Arizona                                                         1 Florida
16 Vermont                                                      16 Robert Morris

  8 VCU                                                             8 Kansas St.
  9 Pittsburgh                                                     9 Stanford

      Spokane                                                         Orlando
  5 Louisville                                                      5 Massachusetts
12 Green Bay                                                   12 Harvard

  4 San Diego St.                                               4 Virginia
13 North Dakota St.                                          13 Delaware

       Raleigh                                                       San Antonio
  6 Oklahoma                                                     6 UCLA
11 Memphis                                                     11 Xavier/Arkansas

  3 Duke                                                            3 Iowa St.
14 Western Michigan                                        14 North Carolina Central

    Milwaukee                                                     Milwaukee
   7 Ohio St.                                                       7 UCONN
 10 California                                                    10 Florida St.

   2 Creighton                                                     2 Wisconsin
 15 Georgia St.                                                 15 Mercer

    MIDWEST-Indianapolis                                    EAST-New York
      St. Louis                                                         Buffalo
   1 Wichita St.                                                   1 Syracuse
 16 Utah Valley/Alabama St.                              16 Weber St./High Point

   8 Arizona St.                                                   8 Iowa
   9 Baylor                                                          9 St. Joseph's

      Spokane                                                        San Diego 
   5 St. Louis                                                      5 Cincinnati
 12 Providence/Minnesota                                 12 Gonzaga

   4 North Carolina                                              4 Texas
 13 Belmont                                                     13 Louisiana Tech

       Raleigh                                                       San Antonio
   6 Kentucky                                                     6 New Mexico
 11 Stephen F. Austin                                       11 Oregon

   3 Michigan                                                      3 Michigan St.
 14 Iona                                                           14 Boston U

      St. Louis                                                          Buffalo 
   7 Colorado                                                      7 George Washington
 10 SMU                                                          10 Oklahoma St.

   2 Kansas                                                        2 Villanova
 15 UC Irvine                                                    15 Davidson

February 28, 2014 Bracketology

   1 Seeds-   Arizona,   Florida,   Syracuse,   Wichita St.

   2 Seeds-   Kansas,   Wisconsin,   Creighton,   Villanova 

   3 Seeds-   Michigan,   Iowa St.,   Duke,   Michigan St.

   4 Seeds-   Virginia,   Texas,   San Diego St.,   North Carolina

   5 Seeds-   St. Louis,   UMASS,   Cincinnati,   Louisville

   6 Seeds-   Oklahoma,   UCLA,   New Mexico,   Kentucky

   7 Seeds-   George Washington,   Ohio St.,   UCONN,   Colorado

   8 Seeds-   Iowa,   Arizona St.,   Kansas St.,   VCU

   9 Seeds-   Baylor,   St. Joseph,   Stanford,   Pittsburgh

 10 Seeds-   California,   Oklahoma St.,   Florida St.,   SMU

 11 Seeds-   Oregon,   Memphis,   Xavier/Arkansas,   Stephen F. Austin

 12 Seeds-   Providence/Minnesota,   Gonzaga,   Harvard,   Green Bay

 13 Seeds-   Belmont,   Louisiana Tech,   North Dakota St.,   Delaware

 14 Seeds-   North Carolina Central,   Iona,   Western Michigan,   Boston U

 15 Seeds-   Georgia St.,   Davidson,   UC Irvine,   Mercer

 16 Seeds-   Vermont,   Robert Morris,   Utah Valley/Alabama St.,   Weber St./High Point

Last four byes:   Florida St.,   SMU,   Oregon,   Memphis

Last four in:   Xavier,   Minnesota,   Providence,   Arkansas

First four out:   Missouri,   Marquette,   West Virginia,   Richmond

Next four out:   Dayton,   BYU,   Southern Miss,   North Carolina St.  

Obviously the Thursday night cap of games was a wild one that caused a lot of movement in the field.  First of all between Wednesday and Thursday's games we had 5 new autobids move into the field due to moving into first place in their respective conferences (High Point, Utah Valley, UC Irvine, Western Michigan, and Louisiana Tech).  Also we saw several serious games play out that caused some big movers up and down in the field.  

Here are the biggest movers:

Richmond  moved from an 11 seed to out after their loss @George Mason.  

Ohio St. and Iowa each moved down a seed line due to their losses. 

Oregon moved safely into the field after their win @UCLA.  

Arkansas moved from off the general radar to the last team in with their win @Kentucky.  

Memphis moved to the last team with a bye after their loss @Houston.  

St. Louis moved down two seed lines after their loss at home to Fordham.        

The #1 Seed Debate

   As we move farther along in the season in most years the one seeds separate themselves.  While  I think Arizona and Wichita St. at this moment are safely in as one seeds if any one of them of the choices were to lose that could quickly change.  Syracuse and Florida on my big board remain as #1 seed currently but my bracket math is starting to make that fourth #1 seed image murky. The team that is competing for that last spot is Kansas.  Now if you look at the bare essentials generally everyone believes that Kansas will be left out of that picture because they have six losses while Arizona, Syracuse, and Florida each have two and Wichita St. has none. That is the only factor that would keep Kansas from being a #1 seed and I will explain why. 

Kansas has arguably played the toughest schedule in at least a decade.  Not only do they play in the Big 12, the best conference in the country this year, but they also had the #1 Non-Conference Strength of schedule.  What does this all add up to?  It means they played an astronomical amount of top 100 opponents so lets break each of the #1 seed candidates by the math. 

                 Kansas   v.s. RPI top 25 7-5                        Arizona   v.s. RPI top 25 4-0             
                                v.s. RPI top 50 12-6                                     v.s. RPI top 50 9-1
                                v.s. RPI top 100 17-6                                   v.s. RPI top 100 14-2

                 Florida     v.s. RPI top 25 2-1                      Syracuse v.s. RPI top 25 3-1
                                 v.s. RPI top 50 5-2                                      v.s. RPI top 50 7-1
                                 v.s. RPI top 100 13-2                                  v.s. RPI top 100 15-1

            Wichita St.    v.s. RPI top 25 1-0
                                 v.s. RPI top 50 2-0
                                 v.s. RPI top 100 6-0

While the numbers obviously show that Wichita St. clearly has an extremely weak resume I just can't imagine a scenario where the Selection Committee would put an undefeated potential 34-0 Wichita St. team anywhere except a #1 seed.  It is important to note though if Wichita St. were to lose it's last regular season game or in the Missouri Valley Tournament they would most certainly not be a #1.  Quite literally the 0 in their loss column is the only thing holding them on the top line. 

Now with the Wichita St. scenario laid out lets move onto Arizona.  I believe they have by far the strongest profile of any of the teams and for that reason they remain my top overall seed.  While they lack the amount of games Kansas has played against the top 25, 50, and 100 their overall quality far surpasses Kansas.  They have won 90% of the games they played against the Top 50 which is mind blowing while Kansas has won 50%.   Their win percentage along with the strength of the PAC 12 leads me to believe that Arizona will be a #1 seed regardless of what happens down the line.

Comparing the other 3 teams is where things get interesting.  While Florida and Syracuse have sterling records against the top 100 Kansas far surpasses both in top 25 and top 50 wins.  They more than triple Florida in top 25 wins and double up Syracuse in the same category.  The question then comes back to where started in this article do the 6 losses matter?  I would argue in most cases having 4 more losses than either team is important but 5 of the 6 losses by Kansas were to top 25 RPI teams.  The other was to RPI 36 Kansas State.  Let me recap that the worst team that Kansas lost to is RPI 36 on the road. If we dig a little bit deeper out of 31 games against division 1 opponents this season Kansas will have played 3 teams ranked outside of the RPI 150.

                                                             v.s. RPI sub 150
                                                             Kansas  3-0
                                                              Florida  9-0
                                                            Syracuse 8-1

  That number may be the most astonishing of all.  We often say every game is a grind for power conference teams but every schedule in the nation pales in comparison to Kansas.  They quite literally decided to play every good team they possibly could and we penalize them with a #2 seed because they lost 6 games when they played top 25 teams 9 more times than Florida and 8 more times than Syracuse?

There is still a lot to play out but figuratively if Kansas is to win out and win the Big 12 tournament with the addition of the quality wins it would most certainly take to do so regardless of what Syracuse or Florida do Kansas would have to be a #1 seed.  There could also be an argument made that if Syracuse or Florida were to lose, with fewer opportunities to improve their resumes that Kansas could achieve a #1 seed that way as well.  Overall we still have more time to evaluate each team but everyday Kansas appears to be making it harder to leave them off of the 1 line. 

February 26, 2014 Bracket

             WEST-Anaheim                                           SOUTH-Memphis
          San Diego                                                     Orlando
   1 Arizona                                                         1 Florida
 16 Davidson                                                     16 Vermont

   8 Connecticut                                                   8 Kansas St.
   9 Pittsburgh                                                      9 VCU

         San Diego                                                      Spokane
   5 Kentucky                                                       5 North Carolina
 12 Gonzaga                                                      12 Minnesota/Oregon

   4 Texas                                                            4 San Diego St.
 13 Belmont                                                        13 Middle Tennessee St.
         
           Raleigh                                                       San Antonio
   6 Ohio St.                                                          6 Oklahoma
 11 Stephen F. Austin                                          11 Xavier

   3 Duke                                                              3 St. Louis
 14 New Mexico St.                                             14 North Dakota St.
     
        Milwaukee                                                      Milwaukee 
   7 George Washington                                         7 Colorado
 10 Oklahoma St.                                                10 SMU

   2 Creighton                                                        2 Wisconsin
 15 Mercer                                                          15 Boston U


        MIDWEST-Indianapolis                                     EAST-New York
         St. Louis                                                           Buffalo
   1 Wichita St.                                                      1 Syracuse
 16 Robert Morris/Alabama St.                              16 Weber St./VMI

   8 Stanford                                                          8 St. Joseph's
   9 Baylor                                                             9 Arizona St.

        Orlando                                                            Spokane
   5 Massachusetts                                                5 Cincinnati
 12 Toledo                                                           12 Harvard

   4 Virginia                                                            4 Michigan St.                               
 13 Green Bay                                                      13 North Carolina Central

        Raleigh                                                          San Antonio
   6 Louisville                                                         6 UCLA
 11 Richmond/Providence                                     11 Florida St.

   3 Michigan                                                          3 Iowa St.
 14 Iona                                                               14 Delaware

       St. Louis                                                            Buffalo
    7 New Mexico                                                    7 Iowa
  10 California                                                       10 Memphis

    2 Kansas                                                           2 Villanova
  15 UCSB                                                            15 Georgia St.

February 26, 2014 Bracketology

  1 Seeds-   Arizona,   Florida,   Syracuse,   Wichita St.
  2 Seeds-   Kansas,   Wisconsin,   Creighton,   Villanova
  3 Seeds-   Iowa St.,   Michigan,   Duke,   St. Louis
  4 Seeds-   Michigan St.,   Texas,   San Diego St.,   Virginia
  5 Seeds-   UMASS,   North Carolina,   Kentucky,   Cincinnati
  6 Seeds-   Oklahoma,   UCLA,   Ohio St.,   Louisville
  7 Seeds-   New Mexico,   Iowa,   George Washington,   Colorado
  8 Seeds-   Connecticut,   Kansas St.,   Stanford,   St. Joseph
  9 Seeds-   Baylor,   Arizona St.,   VCU,   Pittsburgh
10 Seeds-   California,   Oklahoma St.,   Memphis,   SMU
11 Seeds-   Florida St.,   Xavier,   Richmond/Providence,   Stephen F. Austin
12 Seeds-   Minnesota/Oregon,   Toledo,   Harvard,   Gonzaga
13 Seeds-   Green Bay,   NCCU,   Belmont,   Middle Tennessee State
14 Seeds-   North Dakota State,   Delaware,   Iona,   New Mexico St.
15 Seeds-   Mercer,   UCSB,   Boston U,   Georgia St.
16 Seeds-   Davidson,   Vermont,   Robert Morris/Alabama St.,   Weber St./VMI

Last four byes:   Memphis,   SMU,   Florida St.,   Xavier
Last four in:   Richmond,   Minnesota,   Providence,   Oregon
First four out:   Missouri,   West Virginia,   Marquette,   Nebraska
Next four out:   Dayton,   Southern Miss,   North Carolina St.,   BYU

I have a couple of quick notes  I would like to share.  First I completely recalculated all of my bracket math using my formula today so it is completely up to date.  Before today I was using my bracket math from about 4 weeks ago and just adding and subtracting points daily based off of wins and losses on any given day.  As you can see from my other brackets this one has some differences for that reason.  It takes a very long time to do so I can not do it everyday instead I just generally add onto it.  The weekend of conference championships I will do it one more time completely through.  Second Minnesota and Oregon are 12 seeds because they could not fit into the bracket as 11 seeds.  Lastly, you may notice I have several teams outside of the bracket that other figure in namely (BYU 8th out and St. John 9th out) this is due to me weighing their entire resumes and in my eyes their resumes from game one to today do not matchup with these other teams.  We will see how the committee feels but when I looked deep into every teams resume they just didn't have the same value.

Bubble Watch Games of the Week(2/24-3/2)

Xavier @ St. John's 
      Tuesday 7 P.M. ET
With St. John's just outside of the projected field and Xavier sitting in the last four in this is an imperative matchup for both teams.  While Xavier sits in the field currently it is highly unlikely they would stay in the field the rest of this week with a loss here.  On the other hand St. Johns has an opportunity to push themselves most likely back into the field if they can win at home in this top 50 RPI  matchup.  Either way it is most likely that the losing team in this matchup will be on the outside looking in.
Prediction:  Xavier hangs on to pick up a top 50 road win and will get themselves out of the First Four round in Dayton.  St. Johns will slip farther back and need a huge surge to receive an at large bid.

Dayton @ St. Josephs
         Tuesday 7 P.M. ET
At the same time and date as the Xavier/St. John's game another pivotal matchup takes place for these two A10 foes.  While St. Josephs currently sits comfortably in the field and Dayton sits in the last four in the line between the 9-11 seeds is very small and every game down the stretch is imperative.  As the A10 plays out it is hard to imagine 7 A10 teams will ultimately make the field of 68 as I have projected now.  This game is particularly important for Dayton for that reason because as of now they are the last A10 team into the field.  It is important to note that Richmond sits just ahead of Dayton in the field so it could play out that these two may be playing for the 6th and final bid for the conference.

Prediction:  St. Joseph's holds serve at home and we begin to the see the final fall of Dayton that will ultimately keep the A10 from receiving an astounding 7 bids. It is important to note though that even if Dayton can't get the road win they have a huge opportunity at home versus Massachusetts on Saturday.

Georgetown @ Marquette 
        Thursday 9 P.M. ET
With the Big East having a huge log jam in the middle of the league nearly every game that pits these teams is a big opportunity for someone.  With only two locked up bids and Xavier hanging on it seems as if another team will eventually emerge and snatch up a bid.   Marquette as of now sits as the last team in the field and Georgetown sits just a stones throw away from the field.  The most certain thing to come from this game is that the loser will be out of the next projected field.  This should be an interesting matchup because both teams have seen a surge in the second half of the season.

Prediction: Marquette will win at home and begin to solidify their bid while Georgetown falls out of contention to 7-9 in a league that only has two sure fire bids.


     

February 24, 2014 Bracket

        *note St. Joseph's should be in the field as a 8-9 seed.  I somehow missed them in my chart that would also make Marquette out of the field.   This correction will be made in the next projection on Tuesday night. 

       WEST-Anaheim                                                    SOUTH-Memphis
     San Diego                                                                Orlando
  1 Arizona                                                                  1 Florida
16 Davidson                                                              16 Boston U

  8 Connecticut                                                            8 Arizona St.
  9 Pittsburgh                                                              9 VCU

      Spokane                                                                San Diego
  5 San Diego St.                                                        5 North Carolina
12 Xavier/Minnesota                                                  12 Toledo

  4 St. Louis                                                               4 Texas
13 North Dakota St.                                                   13 Belmont

       Raleigh                                                               San Antonio
  6 Oklahoma                                                              6 Louisville
11 Gonzaga                                                              11 Richmond

  3 Duke                                                                     3 Creighton
14 Delaware                                                              14 Georgia St.

     Milwaukee                                                            Milwaukee
  7 George Washington                                                7 Colorado
10 California                                                              10 Oklahoma St.

  2 Michigan                                                                2 Wisconsin
15 Iona                                                                     15 UCSB


     MIDWEST-Indianapolis                                            EAST-New York
       St. Louis                                                                 Buffalo
  1 Wichita St.                                                             1 Syracuse
16 Robert Morris/Alabama St.                                     16 Weber St./VMI

  8 Stanford                                                                 8 Kansas St.
  9 Baylor                                                                    9 Memphis

       Orlando                                                                 Spokane
  5 Cincinnati                                                               5 Ohio St.
12 Stephen F. Austin                                                  12 Harvard

  4 Virginia                                                                   4 UCLA
13 Middle Tennessee St.                                             13 Green Bay

        Raleigh                                                               San Antonio
  6 Kentucky                                                                6 Massachusetts
11 Dayton/Marquette                                                   11 Oregon

  3 Michigan St.                                                            3 Iowa St.
14 New Mexico St.                                                      14 North Carolina Central

       St. Louis                                                                  Buffalo
  7 New Mexico                                                             7 Iowa
10 Florida St.                                                               10 SMU

  2 Kansas                                                                     2 Villanova               
15 Vermont                                                                  15 Mercer

February 24, 2014 Bracketology Seeds

   1 Seeds-   Arizona,   Florida,   Syracuse,   Wichita St.
   2 Seeds-   Kansas,   Wisconsin,   Villanova,   Michigan
   3 Seeds-   Michigan St.,   Creighton,   Duke,   Iowa St.
   4 Seeds-   Virginia,   Texas,   St. Louis,   UCLA
   5 Seeds-   San Diego St.,   North Carolina,   Ohio St.,   Cincinnati
   6 Seeds-   UMASS,   Oklahoma,   Kentucky,   Louisville
   7 Seeds-   Iowa,   Colorado,   George Washington,   New Mexico
   8 Seeds-   Stanford,   Kansas St.,   Connecticut,   Arizona St.
   9 Seeds-   Baylor,   Pittsburgh,   VCU,   Memphis
 10 Seeds-   California,   Florida St.,   Oklahoma St.,   SMU
 11 Seeds-   Oregon,   Richmond,   Dayton/Marquette,   Gonzaga
 12 Seeds-   Xavier/Minnesota,   Stephen F. Austin,   Toledo,   Harvard
 13 Seeds-   Green Bay,   North Dakota St.,   Middle Tennessee State,   Belmont
 14 Seeds-   Delaware,   North Carolina Central,   New Mexico St.,   Georgia St.
 15 Seeds-   Iona,   Vermont,   Mercer,   California Santa Barbara
 16 Seeds-   Boston U,   Davidson,   Robert Morris/Alabama St.,   Weber St./VMI

Last four byes:   Oklahoma St.,   SMU,   Oregon,   Richmond
Last four in:   Dayton,   Xavier,   Minnesota,   Marquette
First four out:   Providence,   Nebraska,   Missouri,   St. John
Next four out:   West Virginia,   North Carolina St.,   BYU,   Georgetown

February 21, 2014 Bracket

           WEST-Anaheim                                      SOUTH-Orlando
        San Diego                                                  Orlando
     1 Arizona                                                    1 Florida
   16 Utah Valley                                             16 Davidson

     8 Pittsburgh                                                 8 Kansas St.
     9 Memphis                                                  9 St. Joseph

        Spokane                                                    San Diego
     5 St. Louis                                                  5 North Carolina    
   12 Stephen F. Austin                                   12 Toledo

     4 San Diego St.                                          4 UCLA
   13 Green Bay                                             13 Belmont

        Spokane                                                  San Antonio
     6 Kentucky                                                 6 Colorado
   11 Oregon                                                   11 Xavier

     3 Iowa St.                                                   3 Texas
   14 UTEP                                                     14 North Carolina Central

      Milwaukee                                                Milwaukee
     7 Connecticut                                              7 UMASS
   10 Baylor                                                     10 Gonzaga

     2 Michigan St.                                             2 Wisconsin
   15 Iona                                                        15 Vermont

      MIDWEST- Indianapolis                               EAST- New York
        St. Louis                                                     Buffalo
     1 Wichita St.                                                1 Syracuse
   16 Robert Morris/Alabama St.                        16 Webet St./Coastal Carolina

     8 New Mexico                                               8 Arizona St.
     9 Stanford                                                     9 VCU

         Raleigh                                                      Orlando
     5 Cincinnati                                                   5 Iowa
   12 St. John/Dayton                                        12 Harvard

    4 Michigan                                                     4 Duke
  13 North Dakota St.                                        13 Delaware

     San Antonio                                                   Raleigh
    6 Ohio St.                                                      6 Louisville 
  11 Richmond                                                  11 Oklahoma St./Minnesota

    3 Creighton                                                    3 Virginia
  14 UC Irvine                                                   14 Boston U

       St. Louis                                                        Buffalo
    7 George Washington                                      7 Oklahoma
  10 California                                                    10 Missouri

    2 Kansas                                                        2 Villanova
  15 Mercer                                                        15 Georgia St.

   

February 21, 2014 Bracketology Seeds

  1 Seeds-   Arizona,   Florida,   Syracuse,   Wichita St.
  2 Seeds-   Kansas,   Wisconsin,   Villanova,   Michigan St.
  3 Seeds-   Creighton,   Texas,   Virginia,   Iowa St.
  4 Seeds-   Michigan,   UCLA,   San Diego St.,   Duke
  5 Seeds-   St. Louis,   North Carolina,   Iowa,   Cincinnati
  6 Seeds-   Ohio St.,   Kentucky,   Louisville,   Colorado
  7 Seeds-   UMASS,   Oklahoma,   George Washington,   UCONN
  8 Seeds-   Arizona St.,   Kansas St.,   Pittsburgh,   New Mexico
  9 Seeds-   St. Joseph,   Stanford,   Memphis,   VCU
10 Seeds-   California,   Baylor,   Gonzaga,   Missouri
11 Seeds-   Oregon,   Richmond,   Xavier,   Oklahoma St./Minnesota(play in as 11 due to fit in bracket)
12 Seeds-   Dayton/St. Johns,   Stephen F. Austin,   Toledo,   Harvard
13 Seeds-   Green Bay,   North Dakota St.,   Delaware,   Belmont
14 Seeds-   UTEP,   North Carolina Central,   Boston U,   UC Irvine
15 Seeds-   Iona,   Mercer,   Georgia St.,   Vermont
16 Seeds-   Davidson,   Utah Valley,   Robert Morris/Alabama St.,   Weber St./Coastal Carolina

Last four byes:   Missouri,   Oregon,   Richmond,   Xavier
Last four in:   Oklahoma St.,   Dayton,   Minnesota,   St. John
First four out:   Florida St.,   West Virginia,   Nebraska,   SMU
Next four out:   Marquette,   Providence,   Tennessee,   Indiana St.

By Conference:
                  A10  (7)
                Big 10 (6)
                Big 12 (6)
                Pac 12 (6)
                  ACC (5)
             Big East (4)
                  AAC (4)
                   SEC (3)
   Mountain West (2)
    American East (1)
        Atlantic Sun (1)
               Big Sky (1)
            Big South (1)
             Big West (1)
                   CAA (1)
Conference USA (1)
               Horizon (1)
                      Ivy (1)
               MAAC (1)
                  MAC (1)
               MEAC (1)
 Missouri Valley (1)
           Northeast (1)
       Ohio Valley (1)
                Patriot (1)
            Southern (1)
          Southland (1)
              SWAC (1)
             Summit (1)
           Sun Belt (1)
               WAC (1)
               WCC (1)

Wednesday Night Recap(2/19)

Boston College 62 Syracuse 59 OT
Syracuse lost a mind boggling game to 7-19 Boston College.  It was apparent that this was coming with how they have been playing but it was hard to imagine it would be at home to Boston College.  Nonetheless, despite probably the biggest upset of the season, Syracuse remains a #1 seed.

Outcome:  Syracuse remains a #1 seed but Arizona takes over as the #1 overall.

Creighton 85 Marquette 70
This game is mostly about what Marquette didn't get done as much as the win for Creighton.  This is just another example of a bubble team on the outside looking in not getting it done against a good opponent.  This does not hurt Marquette but eventually one of the many bubble teams will get a huge win and everyone else will not have much to complain about given everyones opportunities.

Outcome:Creighton continues to move up the bracket and solidify their place as a 3-4 seed.
                Marquette remains outside of the bracket, but within a stones throw.

West Coast Madness
The night's biggest movers and shakers certainly were going to occur out West with a slew of big matchups.

Arizona 67 Utah 63 OT
Arizona faced a scare against a solid Utah team on the road but was able to survive and maintain their place in the bracket.  Utah missed a huge chance to get back into the discussion for a bid.

UCLA 86 California 66
UCLA improved their resume in a rout at Cal and will most certainly move up in the bracket after collecting a top 50 win on the road.  Cal remains the same due to the quality of UCLA.

Oregon 78 Washington 71
Oregon collected a top 100 win at home and all of the sudden the ducks are back to 5-8 in conference play along with their stellar non-conference schedule they are back in the discussion for a bid.

Colorado 61 Arizona St. 52 
In a matchup of two teams that appear to be in the 6-10 range of the tournament picture Colorado collected another big win at home.  Colorado has proven that they are still a solid team without Dinwiddie going 6-4 in their 10 games without him.  Both teams appear to be in good shape for tournament bids.

New Mexico 68  UNLV 56
New Mexico continued to build their already solid tournament resume tonight at UNLV.  This game didn't help them as much as it would have hurt them but nonetheless on a day where many failed to help themselves New Mexico continues to press forward.

Other Games of Note:
Florida 71 Auburn 66;   St. Louis 89 George Mason 85 OT
On a night when the #1 team went down to an inferior opponent credit has to be given to Florida and St. Louis for holding on and not suffering a similar loss as Syracuse.  Both were given a scare but were able to find a way to win.

Illinois 62  Minnesota 49
Minnesota took a big hit at home losing to an Illinois team that had lost 10 of 11 coming into the game. Illinois was an rpi top 100 team so the loss is not as devastating as some believe but with such a huge mash up of teams at the end of the bracket that are deserving it is a body blow.  Minneosta now has a three game stretch of @Ohio St., Iowa, and @Michigan that will make or break their season.

A new bracket prediction will be released tomorrow so until then last nights can hold you over.  There should be a decent amount of change given the volume and importance of games that were played today and that will be played tomorrow.

February 19, 2014 Bracket

        EAST                                                                   WEST
       Buffalo                                                               San Diego
  1  Syracuse                                                            1  Arizona
16  Utah Valley/Alabama St.                                     16  Davidson

  8  Colorado                                                             8  Pittsburgh
  9  New Mexico                                                        9  Memphis

      Orlando                                                             San Antonio
  5  Cincinnati                                                            5  Kentucky
12  Louisiana Tech                                                   12  St. John's/Dayton

  4  St. Louis                                                             4  Texas
13  Delaware                                                            13  Green Bay

       Spokane                                                               Raleigh
  6  Oklahoma                                                            6  Massachusetts
11  Richmond                                                           11  Stephen F. Austin

  3  Michigan                                                              3  Virginia
14  Belmont                                                              14  Boston U

        Buffalo                                                                Milwaukee
  7  Arizona St.                                                           7  Kansas St.
10  Baylor                                                                 10  California

  2  Villanova                                                              2  Michigan St.
15  Mercer                                                                15  Iona


      MIDWEST                                                              SOUTH
       St. Louis                                                                 Orlando
  1  Wichita St.                                                            1  Florida
16  Weber St./Coastal Carolina                                   16  Robert Morris

  8  Connecticut                                                           8  VCU
  9  Stanford                                                                9  Gonzaga

        Raleigh                                                                  Spokane
  5  Iowa                                                                      5  UCLA
12  Toledo                                                                  12  Oklahoma St.

  4  Duke                                                                     4  San Diego St.
13  Harvard                                                                13  North Dakota St.

     San Antonio                                                            San Diego
  6  Ohio St.                                                                 6  Louisville
11  Missouri/West Virginia                                           11  Xavier

  3  Creighton                                                               3  Iowa St.
14  North Carolina Central                                            14  UC Irvine

        St. Louis                                                               Milwaukee
  7  George Washington                                                 7  North Carolina
10  Minnesota                                                             10  St. Joseph

  2  Kansas                                                                   2  Wisconsin
15  Vermont                                                                15  Georgia St.

   

February 19, 2014 Bracketology Seeds

  The seeding differs slightly from the S-Curve due to the inability to place teams on their seed line in the bracket.  Therefore a couple of teams may be a seed line below or above where they belong so that they could fit into the bracket(obviously only affects teams later in the bracket when there are a lot of teams already placed from their conference).  You can see the S-Curve to see where each actually rank.

  1 Seeds-   Syracuse,   Arizona,   Florida,   Wichita St.
  2 Seeds-   Kansas,   Villanova,   Wisconsin,   Michigan St.
  3 Seeds-   Creighton,   Michigan,   Iowa St.,   Virginia
  4 Seeds-   Texas,   Duke,   San Diego St.,   St. Louis
  5 Seeds-   Iowa,   UCLA,   Cincinnati,   Kentucky
  6 Seeds-   Ohio St.,   Oklahoma,   Massachusetts,   Louisville
  7 Seeds-   George Washington,   North Carolina,   Arizona St.,   Kansas St.
  8 Seeds-   Colorado,   UCONN,   Pittsburgh,   VCU
  9 Seeds-   Stanford,   Gonzaga,   New Mexico,   Memphis
10 Seeds-   California,   St. Joseph,   Baylor,   Minnesota
11 Seeds-   Richmond,   Xavier,   Stephen F. Austin,   Missouri/West Virginia
12 Seeds-   Oklahoma St.,   St. John's/Dayton,   Louisiana Tech,   Toledo
13 Seeds-   Harvard,   Green Bay,   North Dakota St.,   Delaware
14 Seeds-   Belmont,   North Carolina Central,   Boston U,   UC Irvine
15 Seeds-   Iona,   Mercer,   Georgia St.,   Vermont
16 Seeds-   Davidson,   Robert Morris,   Utah Valley/Alabama St.,   Weber St./Coastal Carolina

Last four byes:   Minnesota,   Oklahoma St.,   Richmond,   Xavier
Last four in:   Missouri,   St. John,   West Virginia,   Dayton
First four out:   Florida St.,   Oregon,   SMU,   Marquette
Next four out:  Nebraska,   Providence,   Georgetown,   Tennessee      

Tuesday Night Recap(2/18)

Clemson 73 North Carolina St. 56
Clemson ended up beating North Carolina St. by 17 moving them farther outside of the bubble.  This was a game that would have helped North Carolina St. more than Clemson because a road win against a fellow bubble team would have really helped to bolster their profile.  Instead they both appear to be in limbo and will have an uphill climb to make the field.

Outcome:  North Carolina St. will most likely fall out of the first four out category.
                 Clemson receives a minor bump but still remains well outside of the field and still behind N.C. St.

George Washington 73 Richmond 65 
George Washington receives a huge road win in the Atlantic 10 tonight.  Their resume was already very strong but now they have an opportunity, if they finish strong, to potentially move as far as a 6-7 seed if they keep winning.  The goal for them will be to win enough quality games down the stretch to hopefully avoid the 1-2 seed lines in the second round.  Richmond on the other hand, while losing a huge opportunity at home to bolster their profile, does not take a big hit with this loss due to the quality of George Washington.

Outcome:  George Washington receives a bump and will probably appear a seed line higher.
                  Richmond remains in the field for now but lost a great chance to improve their resume.


Other Games of Note:
Kentucky 84  Ole Miss 70
- Kentucky effectively ended Mississippi's small hope for an at large bid.  Mississippi needed several quality wins at this point to reach the field and at this point that seems unlikely with few opportunities remaining.

Iowa St. 85 Texas 76
Iowa St. held serve at home in this one and will receive a small bump but regardless both teams remain in great shape for a 3-5 seed.  The reason Iowa St. only receives a small bump is because the few teams in front of them all still have overall better resumes.

Villanova 82  Providence 79 2OT
Providence missed a huge opportunity to get a defining win that would have put them well into the field at this point.  Instead Villanova survived and records a quality road win.

There are no major games being played in the 9ET time period.  The only potential news will be if one of the top ranked teams(Duke, Virginia, Kansas, and San Diego St.) were to lose to the lesser opponent they play tonight.  Also if Tennessee beats Georgia they will receive a very small bump but with how close they are to the field it may be enough to get them in we will have to see.  Lastly the bracket seeds update will  happen tonight after the San Diego St. game.



               

Bubble Watch: Games of the Week

There are no more important games for bubble teams than those in which they have to play other teams who are searching for the same final spots in the tournament.   These are the kind of games where a team often looks back and can point to  as the reason they made the tournament or missed the tournament.  As we know there is often little separation at the end of the bubble.  These are three games(of many) that will put two teams fighting it out to make the tournament against each other.


North Carolina St. @ Clemson
Tuesday, February 18 at 7:00 P.M. ET

This matchup pits two teams who seem to be on the outside of the field looking in and in Clemson's case several waves back from the field.  It is a huge opportunity for both but maybe no more than N.C. St., who truly appears to be right on the edge, to gain a big road win to send them over the edge.  Clemson has much more work to do but this could completely pop their bubble if they were to lose at home to another bubble team.


Xavier @ Georgetown
Saturday, February 22 at 11:30 A.M. ET

While at this point Xavier appears to be well in the field the jumble that is the middle of the Big East will eventually undoubtedly leave someone at home come March.  Georgetown at this point appears to be the team that is closest to the bubble that is just on the outside looking in.  This is a huge opportunity for Georgetown to knock another middle Big East team down a notch and to propel themselves back into next weeks field.  The stakes are no less for Xavier though as a win on the road at Georgetown would most likely solidify their bid with their stable resume.


Baylor @ West Virginia 
Saturday, February 22 at 1:30 P.M. ET

Baylor and West Virginia are rising quickly back up into contention for bids after rocky stretches in the Big 12.  The winner of this game will have a tremendous opportunity to appear in next weeks bracket.  In their cases their resumes seem eerily similar and this may be a tilting point for one.  While Baylor after their three wins in a row are currently projected into the field they are sitting in the Last 4 in category, a place where no one feels safe.  West Virginia two weeks ago was barely even in the conversation for a bid and now the streaking mountaineers could appear in the projected field for the first time if they win in Morgantown.

Monday Night Recap(2/17)

From here on out until the tournament begins I will do a small recap of the most important games that occur each night and their affects on each teams tournament resume.

North Carolina @ Florida St. 

Probably the most important game to date for the Seminoles who are squarely on the bubble.  They had an opportunity to pick up a quality win and a chance to move safely into the field for the moment.  Instead North Carolina went to Tallahassee and not only knocked off Florida St. but added a quality road win to their resume in pursuit of avoiding the treacherous 7-10 seed range.  The important thing to remember is a loss to North Carolina does not hurt Florida State's resume but rather allows other teams behind them this week to jump the Seminoles if they are able to obtain quality wins.  The big problem for Florida State, and all teams on the edge of the bubble, is that there are a surplus of bubble teams bunched up this year that have very similar resumes.  

Outcome:   Florida St. most likely moves out of the bracket for now.

                   North Carolina stays about the same.  

Oklahoma St. @ Baylor

In a game that was imperative for both teams Baylor continued their recent winning streak and won their third in a row.  Oklahoma St. forced overtime on a last second three after stealing the inbounds pass but fell in overtime and lost their seventh straight.  Baylor continues to climb back into the tournament picture as they have survived their rough stretch in the best conference in the country.  It is important to remember though despite the fact that Oklahoma State is now 4-9 in the Big 12 their overall body of work still remains strong and their losses in the last seven game stretch have been largely to quality opponents who do not hurt their resume (except Texas Tech and Baylor).  As stated above with Florida St. though despite that this loss will not vastly hurt their resume other teams continue to climb above them by beating quality opponents.  On a side note it will be interesting to see if the Selection Committee will weigh this stretch of games without Marcus Smart differently as we have seen in the past.

Outcome:  Baylor moves farther into the bracket and potentially past the play-in game.

                 Oklahoma St. continues to slide but remains in the field for now.  

Delaware @ Towson

A small note here Delaware lost their first conference game tonight at Towson.  Towson sits in second place in the Colonial Athletic Association behind Delaware and is proving that there is a second quality team in the CAA.  The conference tournament should be interesting.

Outcome:  Delaware currently remains the projected CAA auto-bid.  

There will be no updated list of seeds tonight due to the low volume of games.  The seeds will be updated tomorrow night after the games.  

The Baylor and Oregon Dilemma

   As we approach the end of the conference season and tournament time hundreds of people are trying to get inside of the selection committee's heads and figure out who will ultimately be selected for the tournament.  While the tournament itself is austere the selection process is difficult to grasp because of the continuous changing of the guard within the committee.  In particular this season we may be stuck with two teams, in Baylor and Oregon, who have sub .500 conference records but a strong case for the tournament.  Currently each sit at 4-8 in their respective conferences but lets imagine a couple of scenarios for each team.  First of all the reason both, at this point in the mock selection process, receive strong consideration for the tournament is because of their outstanding non-conference strength.  In Baylor's case they have three strong wins against Kentucky(Rpi 13), Colorado(Rpi 27), and Dayton (Rpi 59).  As an added bonus for Baylor all three of those wins were recorded in neutral sites.  In Oregon's case they recorded wins over Georgetown(Rpi 58), @Mississippi(Rpi 68),  and BYU (Rpi 40).  They also added lesser, but still contributing, non-conference wins over Illinois, San Francisco, Pacific, and UC Irvine.   I will skip a scenario where they go 8-10 in conference and receive a bid because that is not hard to imagine especially with teams like Illinois and Minnesota last year receiving bids with 8-10 conference records and similar strong non-conference records.  The question is could either receive a bid with a 7-11 conference record?  It's all fairly relative to who they beat down the stretch, what bids are stolen, and how the rest of the field pans out but could they do it?  The biggest issue I struggle with is will the committee truly only pay attention to the entire body of work or will a teams overall conference record have a determining factor?   While I can't say if a 7-11 conference record could provide the body of work necessary for a tournament bid I just have a hard time imagining despite what the resume may say that the committee would leave out a team from another power conference who went 10-8 with a lesser non-conference resume.  Ultimately despite the selection committee's rules I believe the overall body of work, on selection Sunday, would only go far if you ultimately don't finish at least near .500 in conference no matter what the entire body of work says.  We will see how this plays out in the coming weeks.

February 16, 2014 Bracket

                                       Projected Bracket

     
             EAST                                                                                                   WEST
            Buffalo                                                                                               San Diego
  1 Syracuse                                                                                            1  Arizona
16 Weber St./ Southern                                                                           16  Davidon

  8  California                                                                                            8   North Carolina
  9  New Mexico                                                                                        9   VCU
   
           Spokane                                                                                              Spokane
  5  Ohio St.                                                                                              5   Cincinnati
12  Stephen F. Austin                                                                              12    Toledo

  4  Iowa State                                                                                          4  San Diego St.
13  Harvard                                                                                             13   North Dakota St.

            Raleigh                                                                                            San Antonio
  6  Louisville                                                                                            6  Massachusetts
11  West Virginia/St. Johns                                                                      11  Missouri

  3  Michigan                                                                                             3  Texas
14  North Carolina Central                                                                         14  Belmont

            Buffalo                                                                                             Milwaukee
  7  Kansas St.                                                                                          7  Colorado
10  St. Joseph                                                                                         10  Oklahoma St.

  2  Villanova                                                                                             2  Michigan St.
15  Mercer                                                                                               15  Vermont




         MIDWEST                                                                                                 SOUTH
           St. Louis                                                                                                Orlando
  1  Wichita St.                                                                                           1  Florida
16  Utah Valley/Coastal Carolina                                                                16  Robert Morris

  8  George Washington                                                                               8  Pittsburgh
  9  Stanford                                                                                               9  Memphis

           Orlando                                                                                               San Diego
  5  Iowa                                                                                                     5  UCLA
12  Baylor/Florida St.                                                                                 12  Louisiana Tech

  4  Duke                                                                                                    4  St. Louis
13  Green Bay                                                                                           13  Delaware

        San Antonio                                                                                             Raleigh
  6  Kentucky                                                                                              6  Oklahoma
11  Richmond                                                                                            11  Xavier

  3  Creighton                                                                                              3  Virginia
14  Boston U                                                                                             14  UC Irvine

         St. Louis                                                                                               Milwaukee
  7  Arizona St.                                                                                            7  UCONN
10  Minnesota                                                                                            10  Gonzaga

  2  Kansas                                                                                                  2  Wisconsin
15  Iona                                                                                                     15  Georgia St.