1 Seeds- Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wichita St.
2 Seeds- Kansas, Wisconsin, Creighton, Villanova
3 Seeds- Iowa St., Michigan, Duke, St. Louis
4 Seeds- Michigan St., Texas, San Diego St., Virginia
5 Seeds- UMASS, North Carolina, Kentucky, Cincinnati
6 Seeds- Oklahoma, UCLA, Ohio St., Louisville
7 Seeds- New Mexico, Iowa, George Washington, Colorado
8 Seeds- Connecticut, Kansas St., Stanford, St. Joseph
9 Seeds- Baylor, Arizona St., VCU, Pittsburgh
10 Seeds- California, Oklahoma St., Memphis, SMU
11 Seeds- Florida St., Xavier, Richmond/Providence, Stephen F. Austin
12 Seeds- Minnesota/Oregon, Toledo, Harvard, Gonzaga
13 Seeds- Green Bay, NCCU, Belmont, Middle Tennessee State
14 Seeds- North Dakota State, Delaware, Iona, New Mexico St.
15 Seeds- Mercer, UCSB, Boston U, Georgia St.
16 Seeds- Davidson, Vermont, Robert Morris/Alabama St., Weber St./VMI
Last four byes: Memphis, SMU, Florida St., Xavier
Last four in: Richmond, Minnesota, Providence, Oregon
First four out: Missouri, West Virginia, Marquette, Nebraska
Next four out: Dayton, Southern Miss, North Carolina St., BYU
I have a couple of quick notes I would like to share. First I completely recalculated all of my bracket math using my formula today so it is completely up to date. Before today I was using my bracket math from about 4 weeks ago and just adding and subtracting points daily based off of wins and losses on any given day. As you can see from my other brackets this one has some differences for that reason. It takes a very long time to do so I can not do it everyday instead I just generally add onto it. The weekend of conference championships I will do it one more time completely through. Second Minnesota and Oregon are 12 seeds because they could not fit into the bracket as 11 seeds. Lastly, you may notice I have several teams outside of the bracket that other figure in namely (BYU 8th out and St. John 9th out) this is due to me weighing their entire resumes and in my eyes their resumes from game one to today do not matchup with these other teams. We will see how the committee feels but when I looked deep into every teams resume they just didn't have the same value.
On the BYU question, if you look at them vs Southern Miss, which you have ahead of BYU.
ReplyDeleteBYU has 3 top 50 wins vs Sou. Miss's 1, 7 top 100 wins vs Sou Miss's 4....basically BYU just played a much more difficult OOC schedule, and beat Stanford and Texas away from home.
Maybe a better comparison is BYU vs Richmond.....
BYU has 3 top 50 wins vs Richmond's 2........with the big difference being Richmond got those W's at home while BYU's came away from home......both teams have 7 top 100 wins
Thank you for your comment I take that into account obviously but I also have to look at who each team loses to. In BYU's case they have bad losses to Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland and Pacific. On the other hand Southern Miss has three bad losses to UAB, Western Kentucky, and Tulsa and Richmond has bad losses to St. Bonaventure and after last night George Mason. Now in Richmond's case that George Mason loss was killer and in my next projection they will be outside of the field. In regards to Southern Miss and BYU that is just splitting hairs because the four teams on the next four out are extremely close where one big win by any would separate them. Overall though in regards to my projected last teams in and first four out their overall resumes when incorporating the surplus of bad losses by BYU are better. I don't know if the committee will see it that way but having 4 sub 100 losses and 2 sub 150 losses in the past has not been a recipe to receive a bid.
ReplyDeleteI don't have the numbers in front of me but I believe in my bracket math Southern Miss was rated about a 7.50 and N.C. St. was a 7 while BYU was a 6.5 which without going into great detail is not a large difference at all. Richmond though was an 11 before last night because of the overall strength of their resume (incorporating quality wins, who they lost to, road/neutral wins, etc..) but as I said before that George Mason(RPI 150) loss was a big blow to their profile.
ReplyDeleteWhen was the last time a team in the top 35 RPI rankings was left out?
ReplyDeleteBYU's RPI will go down before it goes up any farther because they play San Diego next which will lower it win or lose, then they will play another lower seeded team in their first game in the WCC tournament which will lower it. Now assuming they win those two they will play either San Francisco or Saint Mary's which are top 100 teams on a neutral court and that might give them the bump they would need to make the tournament. Obviously if they win the WCC conference tournament outright it won't matter, they will be in automatically in that case, but all I am trying to say is as of this moment I don't believe their resume is strong enough to be in the tournament that is just my own opinion based off of other teams resumes I have in front of them.
ReplyDelete