This will be my final projection there is only one thing that is tenative if Kentucky happens to beat Florida they will move from the 7 seed line to the second 6 seed behind Texas and just ahead of Cincinnati. As of now I believe win or lose Michigan will be a #1 seed and that Michigan St. will be a #3 seed. If Kentucky wins I will edit this post before the selection show to move them up where they belong. Otherwise these are my final projections of the field. I would like to thank everyone who has visited me frequently for your support and without further ado here we go! Yellow denotes a team who has won their leagues auto-bid and as always teams appear in true seed order.
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Michigan
2 Seeds- Kansas, Wisconsin, Villanova, Virginia
3 Seeds- Iowa St., Michigan St., Creighton, Louisville
4 Seeds- Duke, Syracuse, San Diego St., UCLA
5 Seeds- Connecticut, Baylor, New Mexico, Oklahoma
6 Seeds- Texas, Cincinnati, Ohio St., VCU
7 Seeds- St. Louis, George Washington, North Carolina, Kentucky
8 Seeds- UMASS, St. Joseph's, Oregon, Providence
9 Seeds- Oklahoma St., Pittsburgh, Colorado, Stanford
10 Seeds- Kansas St., Memphis, Iowa, Gonzaga
11 Seeds- Dayton, Arizona St., California, Nebraska/Tennessee
12 Seeds- Xavier/Florida St., Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, North Dakota St.
13 Seeds- Manhattan, North Carolina Central, Delaware, Western Michigan
14 Seeds- New Mexico St., Tulsa, Eastern Kentucky, Mercer
15 Seeds- UL Lafayette, Wofford, UW Milwaukee, American
16 Seeds- Weber St., Coastal Carolina, Albany/Cal Poly, M. St. Mary's/Texas Southern
Last four byes: Iowa, Dayton, Arizona St., California
Last four in: Nebraska, Xavier, Florida St., Tennessee
First four out: St. John's, Toledo, Illinois, Missouri
Next four out: SMU, North Carolina St., Minnesota, BYU
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Saturday, March 15, 2014
Bracketology
The final bracket will be posted tomorrow afternoon before the SEC tournament is over. I believe at this point Michigan is the final #1 seed regardless of what happens so the only potential movement at that point in the afternoon would be Kentucky if they were to beat Florida would move up. Otherwise everything is set into place. I figured it's a waste of time to post a bracket now when I will have to wait on a couple of things to pan out.
March 15, 2014 Bracketology
The bubble has basically completely shrunk to nearly nothing with basically all bubble teams who could make the tournament with an at large bid losing. Friday saw the elimination of essentially everyone who would not require an auto-bid from contention and leaves us with a much clearer picture of how the field will look. There was a lot of movement with several teams continuing big tournament runs. Yellow denotes a team who has received their leagues auto-bid and as always teams appear in true seed order.
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Wisconsin
2 Seeds- Villanova, Kansas, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Iowa St., Michigan St., San Diego St., Duke
4 Seeds- Syracuse, Connecticut, Virginia, Louisville
5 Seeds- Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
6 Seeds- Ohio St., George Washington, St. Louis, UCLA
7 Seeds- UMASS, New Mexico, North Carolina, VCU
8 Seeds- Oregon, Oklahoma St., Pittsburgh, Kentucky
9 Seeds- St. Joseph's, Colorado, Stanford, Kansas St.
10 Seeds- Providence, Memphis, Iowa, Gonzaga
11 Seeds- Arizona St., Dayton, California, Nebraska/Tennessee
12 Seeds- Xavier/Florida St., Harvard, Toledo, Stephen F. Austin
13 Seeds- Louisiana Tech, North Dakota St., Manhattan, North Carolina Central
14 Seeds- Delaware, New Mexico St., Georgia St., Eastern Kentucky
15 Seeds- Mercer, Stony Brook, Wofford, UW Milwaukee
16 Seeds- American, Weber St., Coastal Carolina/Cal St. Northridge, Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern
Last four byes: Iowa, Arizona St., Dayton, California
Last four in: Nebraska, Xavier, Florida St., Tennessee
First four out: St. John's, Illinois, Missouri, SMU
Next four out: North Carolina St., Minnesota, BYU, Southern Mississippi
Notes: I worked out the bracket and all of the seeds fit properly within the NCAA Principles and Procedures therefore these seeds appear true to actual seed order(S-Curve). Also if you look at the last four out and next four out I rank the teams according to how I see their entire body of works even if they are done playing and can not play their way into the field. The only teams that could steal a bid at this point causing any of the last four in to lose their spots would be St. Bonaventure, North Carolina St., and Georgia. Basically the bracket is set with these teams in it, based on my projections, unless one of those three wins their conferences auto-bid. Seeds are subject to change though based off of Saturday and Sunday's results. Tomorrow I will post the full bracket with projected first round locations and regions. If the Sunday final games do not provide a mess where there could be several scenarios that change the bracket I am going to attempt to put up 2 brackets one based on each scenario for Sunday's games because otherwise it may be difficult to get the bracket in before the Selection Show on Sunday.
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Wisconsin
2 Seeds- Villanova, Kansas, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Iowa St., Michigan St., San Diego St., Duke
4 Seeds- Syracuse, Connecticut, Virginia, Louisville
5 Seeds- Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
6 Seeds- Ohio St., George Washington, St. Louis, UCLA
7 Seeds- UMASS, New Mexico, North Carolina, VCU
8 Seeds- Oregon, Oklahoma St., Pittsburgh, Kentucky
9 Seeds- St. Joseph's, Colorado, Stanford, Kansas St.
10 Seeds- Providence, Memphis, Iowa, Gonzaga
11 Seeds- Arizona St., Dayton, California, Nebraska/Tennessee
12 Seeds- Xavier/Florida St., Harvard, Toledo, Stephen F. Austin
13 Seeds- Louisiana Tech, North Dakota St., Manhattan, North Carolina Central
14 Seeds- Delaware, New Mexico St., Georgia St., Eastern Kentucky
15 Seeds- Mercer, Stony Brook, Wofford, UW Milwaukee
16 Seeds- American, Weber St., Coastal Carolina/Cal St. Northridge, Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern
Last four byes: Iowa, Arizona St., Dayton, California
Last four in: Nebraska, Xavier, Florida St., Tennessee
First four out: St. John's, Illinois, Missouri, SMU
Next four out: North Carolina St., Minnesota, BYU, Southern Mississippi
Notes: I worked out the bracket and all of the seeds fit properly within the NCAA Principles and Procedures therefore these seeds appear true to actual seed order(S-Curve). Also if you look at the last four out and next four out I rank the teams according to how I see their entire body of works even if they are done playing and can not play their way into the field. The only teams that could steal a bid at this point causing any of the last four in to lose their spots would be St. Bonaventure, North Carolina St., and Georgia. Basically the bracket is set with these teams in it, based on my projections, unless one of those three wins their conferences auto-bid. Seeds are subject to change though based off of Saturday and Sunday's results. Tomorrow I will post the full bracket with projected first round locations and regions. If the Sunday final games do not provide a mess where there could be several scenarios that change the bracket I am going to attempt to put up 2 brackets one based on each scenario for Sunday's games because otherwise it may be difficult to get the bracket in before the Selection Show on Sunday.
Friday, March 14, 2014
March 14, 2014 Bracketology
Thursday was a wild day that really helped to shape the landscape of the tournament. It was a day where a lot of bubbles popped and the few who didn't really solidified themselves in the tournament. Overall there was a lot of movement in the bracket today and there almost certainly will be even more tomorrow. The biggest news is we temporarily, at least, welcome Wisconsin to the #1 seed line but that is obviously very likely to change over the next couple of days. Yellow denotes a team who has secured their leagues auto-bid and as always teams appear in true seed order.
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Wisconsin
2 Seeds- Kansas, Villanova, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Syracuse, Iowa St., Michigan St., San Diego St.
4 Seeds- Duke, Louisville, Virginia, St. Louis
5 Seeds- Texas, Cincinnati, Massachusetts, Connecticut
6 Seeds- Oklahoma, Baylor, North Carolina, Ohio St.
7 Seeds- UCLA, Oklahoma St., New Mexico, Oregon
8 Seeds- George Washington, VCU, Colorado, Kentucky
9 Seeds- Stanford, Kansas St., Pittsburgh, St. Joseph's
10 Seeds- Memphis, Iowa, Gonzaga, Providence
11 Seeds- Dayton, Arizona St., California, Nebraska/Tennessee
12 Seeds- Xavier/Florida St., Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, Southern Mississippi
13 Seeds- Toledo, North Dakota St., Manhattan, North Carolina Central
14 Seeds- Delaware, Georgia St., Eastern Kentucky, UC Irvine
15 Seeds- Mercer, Stony Brook, Wofford, Utah Valley
16 Seeds- UW Milwaukee, American, Weber St./Mount St. Mary's, Coastal Carolina/Alabama St.
Last four byes: Providence, Dayton, Arizona St., California
Last four in: Nebraska, Xavier, Florida St., Tennessee
First four out: Illinois, St. John's, Missouri, SMU
Next four out: Minnesota, BYU, Utah, Arkansas
Holding onto a prayer: North Carolina St., LSU, Richmond, Middle Tennessee St., Louisiana Tech, Clemson
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Wisconsin
2 Seeds- Kansas, Villanova, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Syracuse, Iowa St., Michigan St., San Diego St.
4 Seeds- Duke, Louisville, Virginia, St. Louis
5 Seeds- Texas, Cincinnati, Massachusetts, Connecticut
6 Seeds- Oklahoma, Baylor, North Carolina, Ohio St.
7 Seeds- UCLA, Oklahoma St., New Mexico, Oregon
8 Seeds- George Washington, VCU, Colorado, Kentucky
9 Seeds- Stanford, Kansas St., Pittsburgh, St. Joseph's
10 Seeds- Memphis, Iowa, Gonzaga, Providence
11 Seeds- Dayton, Arizona St., California, Nebraska/Tennessee
12 Seeds- Xavier/Florida St., Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, Southern Mississippi
13 Seeds- Toledo, North Dakota St., Manhattan, North Carolina Central
14 Seeds- Delaware, Georgia St., Eastern Kentucky, UC Irvine
15 Seeds- Mercer, Stony Brook, Wofford, Utah Valley
16 Seeds- UW Milwaukee, American, Weber St./Mount St. Mary's, Coastal Carolina/Alabama St.
Last four byes: Providence, Dayton, Arizona St., California
Last four in: Nebraska, Xavier, Florida St., Tennessee
First four out: Illinois, St. John's, Missouri, SMU
Next four out: Minnesota, BYU, Utah, Arkansas
Holding onto a prayer: North Carolina St., LSU, Richmond, Middle Tennessee St., Louisiana Tech, Clemson
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
March 12, 2014 Bracketology
With another light slate of games last night there is not much new to report. We did add four new auto-bids into the tournament which were Gonzaga, North Dakota St., UW Milwaukee, and Mount St. Mary's. Gonzaga did move up a seed line in the bracket and BYU is now out completely of the projected field. Yellow denotes teams who have secured the auto-bid from their conference and teams appear in true seed order
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Villanova
2 Seeds- Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Syracuse, Iowa St., Michigan St., San Diego St.
4 Seeds- Duke, Louisville, St. Louis, Virginia
5 Seeds- Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Texas, Massachusetts
6 Seeds- North Carolina, Baylor, Ohio St., Connecticut
7 Seeds- Oregon, VCU, New Mexico, George Washington
8 Seeds- Oklahoma St., Iowa, Kentucky, UCLA
9 Seeds- Kansas St., St. Joseph's, Colorado, Memphis
10 Seeds- Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Arizona St., Dayton
11 Seeds- Stanford, California, Nebraska, Providence/Tennessee
12 Seeds- SMU/Xavier, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, Toledo
13 Seeds- Southern Mississippi, North Dakota St., Manhattan, Delaware
14 Seeds- North Carolina Central, Boston U, Georgia St., Eastern Kentucky
15 Seeds- UC Irvine, Mercer, Stony Brook, Wofford
16 Seeds- Utah Valley, UW Milwaukee, Weber St./Mount St. Mary's, Coastal Carolina/Alabama St.
Last four byes: Dayton, Stanford, California, Nebraska
Last four in: Providence, SMU, Xavier, Tennessee
First four out: Florida St., St. John's, Arkansas, Minnesota
Next four out: BYU, West Virginia, Illinois, Georgetown
Living on a prayer: Missouri, Marquette, Utah, Indiana, Maryland, North Carolina St., LSU
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Villanova
2 Seeds- Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Syracuse, Iowa St., Michigan St., San Diego St.
4 Seeds- Duke, Louisville, St. Louis, Virginia
5 Seeds- Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Texas, Massachusetts
6 Seeds- North Carolina, Baylor, Ohio St., Connecticut
7 Seeds- Oregon, VCU, New Mexico, George Washington
8 Seeds- Oklahoma St., Iowa, Kentucky, UCLA
9 Seeds- Kansas St., St. Joseph's, Colorado, Memphis
10 Seeds- Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Arizona St., Dayton
11 Seeds- Stanford, California, Nebraska, Providence/Tennessee
12 Seeds- SMU/Xavier, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, Toledo
13 Seeds- Southern Mississippi, North Dakota St., Manhattan, Delaware
14 Seeds- North Carolina Central, Boston U, Georgia St., Eastern Kentucky
15 Seeds- UC Irvine, Mercer, Stony Brook, Wofford
16 Seeds- Utah Valley, UW Milwaukee, Weber St./Mount St. Mary's, Coastal Carolina/Alabama St.
Last four byes: Dayton, Stanford, California, Nebraska
Last four in: Providence, SMU, Xavier, Tennessee
First four out: Florida St., St. John's, Arkansas, Minnesota
Next four out: BYU, West Virginia, Illinois, Georgetown
Living on a prayer: Missouri, Marquette, Utah, Indiana, Maryland, North Carolina St., LSU
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
March 11, 2014 Bracketology
With a light slate tonight I am going to just list the seed lines and not the entire bracket since there was not much movement today. The only movement was BYU who moves into consideration but again I still believe they need to win against Gonzaga tomorrow to guarantee a bid. On the Gonzaga front I think unless something wild happens they should be in now win or lose tomorrow. We also add Manhattan, Wofford, and Delaware to the auto bid list. Yellow denotes a team that has officially claimed the auto-bid for their conference and as always the teams appear in true seed order.
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Villanova
2 Seeds- Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Syracuse, Iowa St., Michigan St., San Diego St.
4 Seeds- Duke, Louisville, St. Louis, Virginia
5 Seeds- Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Texas, Massachusetts
6 Seeds- North Carolina, Baylor, Ohio St., Connecticut
7 Seeds- Oregon, VCU, New Mexico, George Washington
8 Seeds- Oklahoma St., Iowa, Kentucky, UCLA
9 Seeds- Kansas St., St. Joseph's, Colorado, Memphis
10 Seeds- Pittsburgh, Arizona St., Dayton, Stanford
11 Seeds- California, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Providence/Tennessee
12 Seeds- SMU/Xavier, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, Toledo
13 Seeds- Southern Mississippi, Manhattan, North Dakota St., Delaware
14 Seeds- North Carolina Central, Boston U, Georgia St., Eastern Kentucky
15 Seeds- UC Irvine, Mercer, Stony Brook, Robert Morris
16 Seeds- Wofford, Utah Valley, Weber St./Alabama St., Coastal Carolina/Wright St.
Last four byes: Dayton, Stanford, California, Nebraska
Last four in: Providence, SMU, Xavier, Tennessee
First four out: Florida St., St. John's, Arkansas, Minnesota
Next four out: BYU, West Virginia, Illinois, Georgetown
Living on a prayer: Missouri, Marquette, Utah, Indiana, Maryland, North Carolina St., LSU
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Villanova
2 Seeds- Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Syracuse, Iowa St., Michigan St., San Diego St.
4 Seeds- Duke, Louisville, St. Louis, Virginia
5 Seeds- Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Texas, Massachusetts
6 Seeds- North Carolina, Baylor, Ohio St., Connecticut
7 Seeds- Oregon, VCU, New Mexico, George Washington
8 Seeds- Oklahoma St., Iowa, Kentucky, UCLA
9 Seeds- Kansas St., St. Joseph's, Colorado, Memphis
10 Seeds- Pittsburgh, Arizona St., Dayton, Stanford
11 Seeds- California, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Providence/Tennessee
12 Seeds- SMU/Xavier, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, Toledo
13 Seeds- Southern Mississippi, Manhattan, North Dakota St., Delaware
14 Seeds- North Carolina Central, Boston U, Georgia St., Eastern Kentucky
15 Seeds- UC Irvine, Mercer, Stony Brook, Robert Morris
16 Seeds- Wofford, Utah Valley, Weber St./Alabama St., Coastal Carolina/Wright St.
Last four byes: Dayton, Stanford, California, Nebraska
Last four in: Providence, SMU, Xavier, Tennessee
First four out: Florida St., St. John's, Arkansas, Minnesota
Next four out: BYU, West Virginia, Illinois, Georgetown
Living on a prayer: Missouri, Marquette, Utah, Indiana, Maryland, North Carolina St., LSU
Monday, March 10, 2014
Do or Die: First Round Conference Tournament Match-ups
With bubble teams galore meeting up in the first round of all of the major conference tournaments some will have their fates sealed while others will begin magical runs through March. In this post I intend to outline the biggest first round match-ups in which the loser will fall permanently on the outside of the bubble.
Maryland v.s. Florida St.
Thursday @ 12:00 P.M. ET
While Maryland would clearly need to win the ACC tournament to make it into the field Florida St. still has an opportunity to get an at large bid with 2 wins in the ACC tournament. This is the case because the winner of this game will play 1 seed Virginia in the next round. The combination of wins over a top 100 Maryland and a top 15 RPI Virginia would give Florida St. a very good chance to make the field.
Prediction: Florida St. will hold off Maryland in the first game in what I expect to be a low scoring very tight game. That will set up an opportunity for Florida St. to control their own fate against Virginia.
St. John's v.s. Providence
Thursday @ 2:30 P.M. ET
We could not ask for a better first round Big East matchup than this. With these two teams both so near a bid this game should have an incredible amount of tension. One thing we know for sure is the loser will most certainly be completely eliminated from contention for an at large bid. The winner will have a massive opportunity though v.s. Villanova in the next round to solidify a bid. This game is a must watch.
Prediction: Providence, who sits ahead of St. John's on the bid board, wins knocking St. John's out of contention. If this scenario plays out there is still an outside shot that if they lost to Villanova that they could receive an at large bid if several bids are not stolen.
Marquette v.s. Xavier
Thursday @ 9:30 P.M. ET
If the tension in the first Big East matchup is not enough this one certainly will fill the void. While Marquette is well outside of the field at the moment either team could potentially work their way into an at large bid without winning the conference tournament if they were to advance far enough. Xavier, as of this moment sits in the projected play-in game so just as before the loser of this game will be eliminated from bubble contention. If you have not figured it out yet Thursday will start to give the bubble picture a lot more clarity.
Prediction: Xavier slips by Marquette keeping them in the projected field and giving them a potential bid sealing chance against Creighton(if they can get by Georgetown first).
Illinois v.s. Indiana
Thursday @ 12:00 A.M. ET
Indiana will most likely have to win the Big Ten tournament to get a bid but Illinois with a couple of wins stunningly may be able to steal a bid. Illinois' has been tremendous down the stretch winning four of their last five games. Illinois' resume is much stronger than most people realize because they get caught up in the 7-11 conference record(which the committee does not use as a factor). The stat that may help Illinois the most is that they have 5 true road wins and 3 neutral site wins including wins @Michigan St., @Minnesota, @Iowa, and a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Missouri. We know how much the committee cherishes road and neutral site wins so they may not be as far out as some expect if they were to win at least 2 in the Big Ten tournament.
Prediction: Illinois' defensive resurgence over the last month will provide them just enough to slip by Indiana. After that the theme continues as they will have a chance to play #1 seed Michigan potentially for an at large birth.
One quick side not as well is that the Big 12 and Pac 12 tournaments will set up some huge games in the second round among bubble contenders but we will have to wait and see how the first round pans out in those tournaments before we know what is at stake.
Maryland v.s. Florida St.
Thursday @ 12:00 P.M. ET
While Maryland would clearly need to win the ACC tournament to make it into the field Florida St. still has an opportunity to get an at large bid with 2 wins in the ACC tournament. This is the case because the winner of this game will play 1 seed Virginia in the next round. The combination of wins over a top 100 Maryland and a top 15 RPI Virginia would give Florida St. a very good chance to make the field.
Prediction: Florida St. will hold off Maryland in the first game in what I expect to be a low scoring very tight game. That will set up an opportunity for Florida St. to control their own fate against Virginia.
St. John's v.s. Providence
Thursday @ 2:30 P.M. ET
We could not ask for a better first round Big East matchup than this. With these two teams both so near a bid this game should have an incredible amount of tension. One thing we know for sure is the loser will most certainly be completely eliminated from contention for an at large bid. The winner will have a massive opportunity though v.s. Villanova in the next round to solidify a bid. This game is a must watch.
Prediction: Providence, who sits ahead of St. John's on the bid board, wins knocking St. John's out of contention. If this scenario plays out there is still an outside shot that if they lost to Villanova that they could receive an at large bid if several bids are not stolen.
Marquette v.s. Xavier
Thursday @ 9:30 P.M. ET
If the tension in the first Big East matchup is not enough this one certainly will fill the void. While Marquette is well outside of the field at the moment either team could potentially work their way into an at large bid without winning the conference tournament if they were to advance far enough. Xavier, as of this moment sits in the projected play-in game so just as before the loser of this game will be eliminated from bubble contention. If you have not figured it out yet Thursday will start to give the bubble picture a lot more clarity.
Prediction: Xavier slips by Marquette keeping them in the projected field and giving them a potential bid sealing chance against Creighton(if they can get by Georgetown first).
Illinois v.s. Indiana
Thursday @ 12:00 A.M. ET
Indiana will most likely have to win the Big Ten tournament to get a bid but Illinois with a couple of wins stunningly may be able to steal a bid. Illinois' has been tremendous down the stretch winning four of their last five games. Illinois' resume is much stronger than most people realize because they get caught up in the 7-11 conference record(which the committee does not use as a factor). The stat that may help Illinois the most is that they have 5 true road wins and 3 neutral site wins including wins @Michigan St., @Minnesota, @Iowa, and a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Missouri. We know how much the committee cherishes road and neutral site wins so they may not be as far out as some expect if they were to win at least 2 in the Big Ten tournament.
Prediction: Illinois' defensive resurgence over the last month will provide them just enough to slip by Indiana. After that the theme continues as they will have a chance to play #1 seed Michigan potentially for an at large birth.
One quick side not as well is that the Big 12 and Pac 12 tournaments will set up some huge games in the second round among bubble contenders but we will have to wait and see how the first round pans out in those tournaments before we know what is at stake.
March 10, 2014 Bracketology
With the final day of the regular season out of the way we had some movement in the bracket where we saw Nebraska join the projected field for the first time. Also we saw a lot of action in conference tournaments with Mercer, Wichita St., and Coastal Carolina clinching the automatic bid. Finally we saw favorites Davidson and Vermont lose adding two new teams into the field. Yellow denotes teams that have secured the auto-bid from their conference and as always seeds appear in true seed order except in this case SMU/Xavier who had to be moved to the 12 line to fit into the bracket.
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Villanova
2 Seeds- Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Syracuse, Iowa St., Michigan St., San Diego St.
4 Seeds- Duke, Louisville, St. Louis, Virginia
5 Seeds- Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Texas, Massachusetts
6 Seeds- North Carolina, Baylor, Ohio St., Connecticut
7 Seeds- Oregon, VCU, New Mexico, George Washington
8 Seeds- Oklahoma St., Iowa, Kentucky, UCLA
9 Seeds- Kansas St., St. Joseph's, Colorado, Memphis
10 Seeds- Pittsburgh, Arizona St., Dayton, Stanford
11 Seeds- California, Nebraska, Providence/Tennessee, Gonzaga
12 Seeds- Xavier/SMU, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, Toledo
13 Seeds- Southern Mississippi, North Dakota St., North Carolina Central, Delaware
14 Seeds- Iona, Boston U, Georgia St., Eastern Kentucky
15 Seeds- UC Irvine, Mercer, Stony Brook, Robert Morris
16 Seeds- Wofford, Utah Valley, Weber St./Alabama St., Coastal Carolina/Wright St.
Last four byes: Dayton, Stanford, California, Nebraska
Last four in: Providence, Xavier, SMU, Tennessee
First four out: Florida St., St. John's, Arkansas, Minnesota
Next four out: West Virginia, Illinois, Georgetown, Missouri
Living on a prayer: Marquette, Utah, BYU, Indiana, Maryland, North Carolina St., LSU
I will post the entire bracket later on today. It takes quite awhile to format it correctly with the blogger interface so I will probably post it sometime Monday afternoon.
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Villanova
2 Seeds- Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Syracuse, Iowa St., Michigan St., San Diego St.
4 Seeds- Duke, Louisville, St. Louis, Virginia
5 Seeds- Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Texas, Massachusetts
6 Seeds- North Carolina, Baylor, Ohio St., Connecticut
7 Seeds- Oregon, VCU, New Mexico, George Washington
8 Seeds- Oklahoma St., Iowa, Kentucky, UCLA
9 Seeds- Kansas St., St. Joseph's, Colorado, Memphis
10 Seeds- Pittsburgh, Arizona St., Dayton, Stanford
11 Seeds- California, Nebraska, Providence/Tennessee, Gonzaga
12 Seeds- Xavier/SMU, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, Toledo
13 Seeds- Southern Mississippi, North Dakota St., North Carolina Central, Delaware
14 Seeds- Iona, Boston U, Georgia St., Eastern Kentucky
15 Seeds- UC Irvine, Mercer, Stony Brook, Robert Morris
16 Seeds- Wofford, Utah Valley, Weber St./Alabama St., Coastal Carolina/Wright St.
Last four byes: Dayton, Stanford, California, Nebraska
Last four in: Providence, Xavier, SMU, Tennessee
First four out: Florida St., St. John's, Arkansas, Minnesota
Next four out: West Virginia, Illinois, Georgetown, Missouri
Living on a prayer: Marquette, Utah, BYU, Indiana, Maryland, North Carolina St., LSU
I will post the entire bracket later on today. It takes quite awhile to format it correctly with the blogger interface so I will probably post it sometime Monday afternoon.
Sunday, March 9, 2014
March 9, 2014 Bracket
SOUTH-Memphis WEST-Anaheim
Orlando San Diego
1 Florida 1 Arizona
16 Robert Morris 16 Utah Valley
8 Iowa 8 Kentucky
9 Kansas St. 9 Memphis
Spokane Orlando
5 North Carolina 5 Texas
12 Stephen F. Austin 12 Toledo
4 Cincinnati 4 Duke
13 North Dakota St. 13 North Carolina Central
Raleigh Spokane
6 St. Louis 6 Baylor
11 Providence 11 Harvard
3 Michigan St. 3 San Diego St.
14 Boston U 14 Georgia St.
St. Louis San Antonio
7 Oregon 7 George Washington
10 Pittsburgh 10 Arizona St.
2 Kansas 2 Creighton
15 UC Irvine 15 Mercer
EAST-New York MIDWEST-Indianapolis
Buffalo St. Louis
1 Villanova 1 Wichita St.
16 Weber St./Alabama St. 16 Coastal Carolina/Wright St.
8 St. Joseph's 8 Ohio St.
9 Colorado 9 UCLA
San Diego Raleigh
5 Oklahoma 5 Massachusetts
12 Gonzaga 12 Xavier/SMU
4 Louisville 4 Virginia
13 Southern Mississippi 13 Delaware
Buffalo San Antonio
6 Connecticut 6 New Mexico
11 California 11 Tennessee/Florida St.
3 Syracuse 3 Iowa St.
14 Iona 14 Vermont
Milwaukee Milwaukee
7 Oklahoma St. 7 VCU
10 Dayton 10 Stanford
2 Michigan 2 Wisconsin
15 Davidson 15 Eastern Kentucky
Orlando San Diego
1 Florida 1 Arizona
16 Robert Morris 16 Utah Valley
8 Iowa 8 Kentucky
9 Kansas St. 9 Memphis
Spokane Orlando
5 North Carolina 5 Texas
12 Stephen F. Austin 12 Toledo
4 Cincinnati 4 Duke
13 North Dakota St. 13 North Carolina Central
Raleigh Spokane
6 St. Louis 6 Baylor
11 Providence 11 Harvard
3 Michigan St. 3 San Diego St.
14 Boston U 14 Georgia St.
St. Louis San Antonio
7 Oregon 7 George Washington
10 Pittsburgh 10 Arizona St.
2 Kansas 2 Creighton
15 UC Irvine 15 Mercer
EAST-New York MIDWEST-Indianapolis
Buffalo St. Louis
1 Villanova 1 Wichita St.
16 Weber St./Alabama St. 16 Coastal Carolina/Wright St.
8 St. Joseph's 8 Ohio St.
9 Colorado 9 UCLA
San Diego Raleigh
5 Oklahoma 5 Massachusetts
12 Gonzaga 12 Xavier/SMU
4 Louisville 4 Virginia
13 Southern Mississippi 13 Delaware
Buffalo San Antonio
6 Connecticut 6 New Mexico
11 California 11 Tennessee/Florida St.
3 Syracuse 3 Iowa St.
14 Iona 14 Vermont
Milwaukee Milwaukee
7 Oklahoma St. 7 VCU
10 Dayton 10 Stanford
2 Michigan 2 Wisconsin
15 Davidson 15 Eastern Kentucky
Saturday, March 8, 2014
March 9, 2014 Bracketology
These seeds reflect true seed order and only the last play-in game(12 seeds SMU/Providence) had to be moved from the 11 seed line due to inability to fit them into the bracket. This bracket contains results through Saturday March 8. Yellow denotes an autobid that has been officially locked up.
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Villanova
2 Seeds- Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Michigan St., Iowa St., Syracuse, San Diego St.
4 Seeds- Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Cincinnati
5 Seeds- Oklahoma, Texas, Massachusetts, North Carolina
6 Seeds- Baylor, St. Louis, Connecticut, New Mexico
7 Seeds- Oregon, George Washington, VCU, Oklahoma St.
8 Seeds- Saint Joseph's, Ohio St., Kentucky, Iowa
9 Seeds- UCLA, Kansas St., Colorado, Memphis
10 Seeds- Pittsburgh, Arizona St., Dayton, Stanford
11 Seeds- California, Providence, Florida St./Tennessee, Harvard
12 Seeds- SMU/Xavier, Gonzaga, Stephen F. Austin, Toledo
13 Seeds- Southern Mississippi, North Dakota St., NCCU, Delaware
14 Seeds- Iona, Boston U, Georgia St, Vermont
15 Seeds- Eastern Kentucky, Davidson, UC Irvine, Mercer
16 Seeds- Robert Morris, Utah Valley, Weber St./Alabama St., Coastal Carolina/Wright St.
Last four byes: Dayton, Stanford, California, Providence
Last four in: SMU, Florida St., Xavier, Tennessee
First four out: St. John's, Arkansas, Nebraska, Minnesota
Next four out: West Virginia, Illinois, Georgetown, Missouri
Living on a prayer: Marquette, Utah, BYU, Indiana, North Carolina St., LSU, Richmond, Clemson
1 Seeds- Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Villanova
2 Seeds- Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Creighton
3 Seeds- Michigan St., Iowa St., Syracuse, San Diego St.
4 Seeds- Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Cincinnati
5 Seeds- Oklahoma, Texas, Massachusetts, North Carolina
6 Seeds- Baylor, St. Louis, Connecticut, New Mexico
7 Seeds- Oregon, George Washington, VCU, Oklahoma St.
8 Seeds- Saint Joseph's, Ohio St., Kentucky, Iowa
9 Seeds- UCLA, Kansas St., Colorado, Memphis
10 Seeds- Pittsburgh, Arizona St., Dayton, Stanford
11 Seeds- California, Providence, Florida St./Tennessee, Harvard
12 Seeds- SMU/Xavier, Gonzaga, Stephen F. Austin, Toledo
13 Seeds- Southern Mississippi, North Dakota St., NCCU, Delaware
14 Seeds- Iona, Boston U, Georgia St, Vermont
15 Seeds- Eastern Kentucky, Davidson, UC Irvine, Mercer
16 Seeds- Robert Morris, Utah Valley, Weber St./Alabama St., Coastal Carolina/Wright St.
Last four byes: Dayton, Stanford, California, Providence
Last four in: SMU, Florida St., Xavier, Tennessee
First four out: St. John's, Arkansas, Nebraska, Minnesota
Next four out: West Virginia, Illinois, Georgetown, Missouri
Living on a prayer: Marquette, Utah, BYU, Indiana, North Carolina St., LSU, Richmond, Clemson
Friday, March 7, 2014
Tournament Notes/Concerns
4/5 Seed travel
If your team falls on the 4 seed or 5 seed line it may not be a good thing. With the Midwest and Eastern United States compiling the vast majority of the 1-4 seeds(all but Arizona and San Diego St. at this point) that means that location will be a big issue for the 4 and 5 seed East Coast teams in particular. With Arizona obviously going to play in San Diego and San Diego St. most likely playing in Spokane that leaves each of those sites sitting there when the 4 seed line come around. What this means is more than likely some East coast team, if not two, is going to have to be shipped all the way to the West coast to play in the first couple of rounds of the tournament. The top 4 seed lines are location protected, which means they play as close to home as possible, but with the majority of the West coast teams being in the middle of the bracket the 4 and 5 seed lines are not a fun place to be.
BYU
They may have the hardest resume of anyone in the country to figure out. BYU has a tidy RPI of 35 and wins over Stanford, Texas, and Gonzaga but they also have the worst losses of any bubble team. They have lost to Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, and Pacific which all can be characterized as bad losses. Even worse Loyola, Pepperdine, and Portland are all outside of the top 150 which means BYU has stunningly lost to 3 really bad teams but that seems to be overlooked. I think the determining factor is that not only does BYU have the worst losses of any bubble team but their three best wins are not extraordinary by any means. I may stand alone in this thought but I think BYU needs to win the WCC tournament to get into the big dance.
Arkansas
The national pundits have been glowing about Arkansas as of late and they have good reason to because they have been playing tremendous. Arkansas has beaten 8 of it's last 9 opponents and that 1 loss came to Missouri by one. The problem with the national media is they often do not remember to take into account the entire season and instead focus on the here and now when they claim that teams are now "locks for the tournament." I would like to say I do have Arkansas in the field as of now but only as an 11 in the play-in game. If they keep winning they will certainly receive a bid but at this point they most certainly need to keep winning because they may not be as close to a lock as some suggest.
If your team falls on the 4 seed or 5 seed line it may not be a good thing. With the Midwest and Eastern United States compiling the vast majority of the 1-4 seeds(all but Arizona and San Diego St. at this point) that means that location will be a big issue for the 4 and 5 seed East Coast teams in particular. With Arizona obviously going to play in San Diego and San Diego St. most likely playing in Spokane that leaves each of those sites sitting there when the 4 seed line come around. What this means is more than likely some East coast team, if not two, is going to have to be shipped all the way to the West coast to play in the first couple of rounds of the tournament. The top 4 seed lines are location protected, which means they play as close to home as possible, but with the majority of the West coast teams being in the middle of the bracket the 4 and 5 seed lines are not a fun place to be.
BYU
They may have the hardest resume of anyone in the country to figure out. BYU has a tidy RPI of 35 and wins over Stanford, Texas, and Gonzaga but they also have the worst losses of any bubble team. They have lost to Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, and Pacific which all can be characterized as bad losses. Even worse Loyola, Pepperdine, and Portland are all outside of the top 150 which means BYU has stunningly lost to 3 really bad teams but that seems to be overlooked. I think the determining factor is that not only does BYU have the worst losses of any bubble team but their three best wins are not extraordinary by any means. I may stand alone in this thought but I think BYU needs to win the WCC tournament to get into the big dance.
Arkansas
The national pundits have been glowing about Arkansas as of late and they have good reason to because they have been playing tremendous. Arkansas has beaten 8 of it's last 9 opponents and that 1 loss came to Missouri by one. The problem with the national media is they often do not remember to take into account the entire season and instead focus on the here and now when they claim that teams are now "locks for the tournament." I would like to say I do have Arkansas in the field as of now but only as an 11 in the play-in game. If they keep winning they will certainly receive a bid but at this point they most certainly need to keep winning because they may not be as close to a lock as some suggest.
March 7, 2014 Bracket
WEST-Anaheim SOUTH-Memphis
San Diego Orlando
1 Arizona 1 Florida
16 UC Irvine 16 Robert Morris
8 Baylor 8 Ohio St.
9 Memphis 9 Arizona St.
Spokane Spokane
5 St. Louis 5 Massachusetts
12 Stephen F. Austin 12 Southern Mississippi
4 San Diego St. 4 Texas
13 North Dakota St. 13 UW Green Bay
San Antonio Raleigh
6 Connecticut 6 UCLA
11 Stanford 11 SMU
3 Iowa St. 3 Virginia
14 North Carolina Central 14 Delaware
Buffalo Milwaukee
7 Iowa 7 Oklahoma St.
10 Providence 10 Dayton
2 Syracuse 2 Michigan
15 Georgia St. 15 Vermont
EAST-New York MIDWEST-Indianapolis
St. Louis St. Louis
1 Kansas 1 Wichita St.
16 Utah Valley/Alabama St. 16 Weber St./High Point
8 Saint Joseph's 8 Kentucky
9 Oregon 9 Colorado
San Diego Orlando
5 Duke 5 Oklahoma
12 Harvard 12 Florida St./Xavier
4 Louisville 4 Cincinnati
13 Toledo 13 Belmont
Raleigh San Antonio
6 New Mexico 6 North Carolina
11 Arkansas/California 11 Gonzaga
3 Michigan St. 3 Creighton
14 Boston U 14 Iona
Buffalo Milwaukee
7 George Washington 7 VCU
10 Pittsburgh 10 Kansas St.
2 Villanova 2 Wisconsin
15 Mercer 15 Davidson
San Diego Orlando
1 Arizona 1 Florida
16 UC Irvine 16 Robert Morris
8 Baylor 8 Ohio St.
9 Memphis 9 Arizona St.
Spokane Spokane
5 St. Louis 5 Massachusetts
12 Stephen F. Austin 12 Southern Mississippi
4 San Diego St. 4 Texas
13 North Dakota St. 13 UW Green Bay
San Antonio Raleigh
6 Connecticut 6 UCLA
11 Stanford 11 SMU
3 Iowa St. 3 Virginia
14 North Carolina Central 14 Delaware
Buffalo Milwaukee
7 Iowa 7 Oklahoma St.
10 Providence 10 Dayton
2 Syracuse 2 Michigan
15 Georgia St. 15 Vermont
EAST-New York MIDWEST-Indianapolis
St. Louis St. Louis
1 Kansas 1 Wichita St.
16 Utah Valley/Alabama St. 16 Weber St./High Point
8 Saint Joseph's 8 Kentucky
9 Oregon 9 Colorado
San Diego Orlando
5 Duke 5 Oklahoma
12 Harvard 12 Florida St./Xavier
4 Louisville 4 Cincinnati
13 Toledo 13 Belmont
Raleigh San Antonio
6 New Mexico 6 North Carolina
11 Arkansas/California 11 Gonzaga
3 Michigan St. 3 Creighton
14 Boston U 14 Iona
Buffalo Milwaukee
7 George Washington 7 VCU
10 Pittsburgh 10 Kansas St.
2 Villanova 2 Wisconsin
15 Mercer 15 Davidson
March 7, 2014 Bracketology
All teams are in true seed order so essentially best 1 seed is listed first and worst is listed last etc.... The only team that had to move seeds was Kansas St. They could not fit into this particular bracket as a 9 due to a surplus of Big 12 teams in the top half of the bracket so they were bumped to a 10 for that reason and Memphis was brought up to a 9. Also I completely recreated my bracket math yesterday for the last time before the tournament. From here on out I will just add new results to my current bracket math.
1 Seeds- Arizona, Florida, Wichita St., Kansas
2 Seeds- Wisconsin, Villanova, Michigan, Syracuse
3 Seeds- Michigan St., Creighton, Iowa St., Virginia
4 Seeds- San Diego St., Texas, Cincinnati, Louisville
5 Seeds- Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Duke, St. Louis
6 Seeds- North Carolina, Connecticut, UCLA, New Mexico
7 Seeds- VCU, George Washington, Oklahoma St., Iowa
8 Seeds- Baylor, Saint Joseph's, Ohio St., Kentucky
9 Seeds- Colorado, Arizona St., Oregon, Memphis
10 Seeds- Kansas St., Dayton, Providence, Pittsburgh
11 Seeds- Stanford, SMU, Gonzaga, Arkansas/California
12 Seeds- Florida St./Xavier, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard, Southern Mississippi
13 Seeds- Toledo, UW Green Bay, North Dakota St., Belmont
14 Seeds- North Carolina Central, Delaware, Boston U, Iona
15 Seeds- Georgia St., Vermont, Davidson, Mercer
16 Seeds- UC Irvine, Robert Morris, Utah Valley/Alabama St., Weber St./High Point
Last four byes: Providence, Pittsburgh, Stanford, SMU
Last four in: Florida St., Xavier, Arkansas, California
First four out: Missouri, Nebraska, Georgetown, Minnesota
Next four out: Marquette, St. John's, Tennessee, Utah
Others considered: West Virginia, Louisiana Tech, BYU, Illinois, Indiana, LSU, Richmond, North Carolina St., Clemson
The reason I have BYU so far down is because their surplus of sub 150 losses really brought their overall value down in my bracket math. They have by far the worst caliber of losses of anyone near the bubble and have several of them on their resume. I don't know if the committee will eliminate those from their mind because of the strength of some of their wins but based on what the committee has done before I would guess they will be well out of the field as of now. I understand they have a strong RPI but in reality we are talking about a team that is (20-10) in a down WCC that just doesn't resound as stellar to me when teams from power conferences have similar caliber wins and less profile killing losses.
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
March 5, 2014 Bracketology
(In true seed order except for a SMU and Xavier who had to be moved down 1 seed line due to conflict with other teams in the bottom of the bracket.)
1 Seeds- Arizona, Florida, Wichita St., Kansas
2 Seeds- Wisconsin, Michigan, Villanova, Syracuse
3 Seeds- Creighton, Iowa St., Virginia, Duke
4 Seeds- Michigan St., North Carolina, San Diego St., St. Louis
5 Seeds- Texas, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Cincinnati
6 Seeds- UCLA, New Mexico, UCONN, Louisville
7 Seeds- Oklahoma St., Baylor, VCU, Iowa
8 Seeds- Kansas St., George Washington, Arizona St., Kentucky
9 Seeds- St. Joseph's, Ohio St., Colorado, Oregon
10 Seeds- Stanford, Pittsburgh, Memphis, Florida St.
11 Seeds- California, Providence, Dayton/Arkansas, Stephen F. Austin
12 Seeds- SMU/Xavier, Gonzaga, UW Green Bay, Harvard
13 Seeds- Toledo, Southern Mississippi, Belmont, North Carolina Central
14 Seeds- Delaware, North Dakota St., Iona, Boston U.
15 Seeds- Georgia St., Davidson, UC Irvine, Mercer
16 Seeds- Vermont, Robert Morris, Utah Valley/Alabama St., Weber St./High Point
Last four byes: Memphis, Florida St., California, Providence
Last four in: Xavier, SMU, Dayton, Arkansas
First four out: Minnesota, Missouri, Georgetown, BYU
Next four out: West Virginia, Marquette, Tennessee, Utah
Others Considered: North Carolina St., Nebraska, St. John, Indiana, Clemson, Illinois, and Richmond.
There is nothing really of note to add here this time. The bracket was very difficult to put together in places especially along the ten line because teams could literally only fit in one space so Memphis and Florida St. were put into potential Sweet 16 matchups with conference foes (which is allowed now under the NCAA committee's rules and regulations). Otherwise the bracket was very smooth and I will be posting the full bracket tomorrow sometime during the day.
1 Seeds- Arizona, Florida, Wichita St., Kansas
2 Seeds- Wisconsin, Michigan, Villanova, Syracuse
3 Seeds- Creighton, Iowa St., Virginia, Duke
4 Seeds- Michigan St., North Carolina, San Diego St., St. Louis
5 Seeds- Texas, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Cincinnati
6 Seeds- UCLA, New Mexico, UCONN, Louisville
7 Seeds- Oklahoma St., Baylor, VCU, Iowa
8 Seeds- Kansas St., George Washington, Arizona St., Kentucky
9 Seeds- St. Joseph's, Ohio St., Colorado, Oregon
10 Seeds- Stanford, Pittsburgh, Memphis, Florida St.
11 Seeds- California, Providence, Dayton/Arkansas, Stephen F. Austin
12 Seeds- SMU/Xavier, Gonzaga, UW Green Bay, Harvard
13 Seeds- Toledo, Southern Mississippi, Belmont, North Carolina Central
14 Seeds- Delaware, North Dakota St., Iona, Boston U.
15 Seeds- Georgia St., Davidson, UC Irvine, Mercer
16 Seeds- Vermont, Robert Morris, Utah Valley/Alabama St., Weber St./High Point
Last four byes: Memphis, Florida St., California, Providence
Last four in: Xavier, SMU, Dayton, Arkansas
First four out: Minnesota, Missouri, Georgetown, BYU
Next four out: West Virginia, Marquette, Tennessee, Utah
Others Considered: North Carolina St., Nebraska, St. John, Indiana, Clemson, Illinois, and Richmond.
There is nothing really of note to add here this time. The bracket was very difficult to put together in places especially along the ten line because teams could literally only fit in one space so Memphis and Florida St. were put into potential Sweet 16 matchups with conference foes (which is allowed now under the NCAA committee's rules and regulations). Otherwise the bracket was very smooth and I will be posting the full bracket tomorrow sometime during the day.
Monday, March 3, 2014
Bubble Watch Games of the Week (3/3-3/9)
Marquette @ Providence
Tuesday March 3, 9:00 P.M. ET
This is a massive game for both teams as they head into the final week of the season. Providence after a good week last week sits in the Last Four In category of yesterdays bracket while Marquette continues to hang around just outside of the bracket. With these two teams tied at 9-7 in Big East play on Selection Sunday the loser could look to this game as the reason they were left out while their counterpart was just inside the tournament. It will be interesting to see if Providence can keep up their rise into the bracket or if Marquette can finally get over the hump and put themselves on the right side of the bubble.
Prediction: Providence wins at home and begins to completely solidify their bid while Marquette misses out on another opportunity to push themselves into the dance.
Nebraska @ Indiana
Wednesday March 4, 7:00 P.M. ET
The winner of this game will move closer to the field but more importantly whomever loses this game will most likely be eliminated from any chance at an at large birth. That makes this matchup really intriguing because you have to imagine both teams will know how much is at stake. Both teams have been trending up as of late. Indiana has seemingly came out of no where to get into contention for a bid, but they can not afford another loss during the regular season. Nebraska sits in slightly better shape(Next Four Out Category) but with the bubble shrinking every loss could be a death blow.
Prediction: Indiana holds serve at home once again and comes within reach of a bid with an extremely difficult game @Michigan that would give them a bid. Nebraska with this loss falls to the point where they may need to win the BTT to receive a bid especially with their potential 2-9 road record.
Utah @ California
Wednesday March 4, 11:00 P.M. ET
California slowly but surely has been slipping in the field and they appear to be now floating right around the play-in game or just above. With that said Utah appears to finally be rising up the ranks into at least the conversation for a bid if they can keep winning. This point may be null and void because Utah may have to win their conference tournament in order to get in but their resume does have some meat on it.
Prediction: California holds serve at home and pretty much eliminates Utah from an at large berth. It is particularly hard to see Utah winning this game because they are just 1-7 on the road with that win coming at lowly USC. If Utah does not win this game they have no chance at all because the committee values road wins very highly.
Missouri @ Tennessee
Saturday March 8, 4:00 P.M. ET
This matchup will basically decide if and who will be the fourth team from the SEC. As long as Arkansas does not collapse it appears that they will find themselves in the field but the question all along was will there be a fourth SEC team? Well this matchup came at a perfect time to leave an impression in the committees mind between two teams that essentially have the same resume. Missouri in my projections is slightly ahead of Tennessee but without a doubt the winner of this game would jump the other.
Prediction: Missouri comes into Tennessee and finally secures the SEC 4 bids in the dance. Tennessee whose profile is slightly weaker than Missouri's falls well back with this loss and more than likely needs an SEC tournament title to make the field.
Tuesday March 3, 9:00 P.M. ET
This is a massive game for both teams as they head into the final week of the season. Providence after a good week last week sits in the Last Four In category of yesterdays bracket while Marquette continues to hang around just outside of the bracket. With these two teams tied at 9-7 in Big East play on Selection Sunday the loser could look to this game as the reason they were left out while their counterpart was just inside the tournament. It will be interesting to see if Providence can keep up their rise into the bracket or if Marquette can finally get over the hump and put themselves on the right side of the bubble.
Prediction: Providence wins at home and begins to completely solidify their bid while Marquette misses out on another opportunity to push themselves into the dance.
Nebraska @ Indiana
Wednesday March 4, 7:00 P.M. ET
The winner of this game will move closer to the field but more importantly whomever loses this game will most likely be eliminated from any chance at an at large birth. That makes this matchup really intriguing because you have to imagine both teams will know how much is at stake. Both teams have been trending up as of late. Indiana has seemingly came out of no where to get into contention for a bid, but they can not afford another loss during the regular season. Nebraska sits in slightly better shape(Next Four Out Category) but with the bubble shrinking every loss could be a death blow.
Prediction: Indiana holds serve at home once again and comes within reach of a bid with an extremely difficult game @Michigan that would give them a bid. Nebraska with this loss falls to the point where they may need to win the BTT to receive a bid especially with their potential 2-9 road record.
Utah @ California
Wednesday March 4, 11:00 P.M. ET
California slowly but surely has been slipping in the field and they appear to be now floating right around the play-in game or just above. With that said Utah appears to finally be rising up the ranks into at least the conversation for a bid if they can keep winning. This point may be null and void because Utah may have to win their conference tournament in order to get in but their resume does have some meat on it.
Prediction: California holds serve at home and pretty much eliminates Utah from an at large berth. It is particularly hard to see Utah winning this game because they are just 1-7 on the road with that win coming at lowly USC. If Utah does not win this game they have no chance at all because the committee values road wins very highly.
Missouri @ Tennessee
Saturday March 8, 4:00 P.M. ET
This matchup will basically decide if and who will be the fourth team from the SEC. As long as Arkansas does not collapse it appears that they will find themselves in the field but the question all along was will there be a fourth SEC team? Well this matchup came at a perfect time to leave an impression in the committees mind between two teams that essentially have the same resume. Missouri in my projections is slightly ahead of Tennessee but without a doubt the winner of this game would jump the other.
Prediction: Missouri comes into Tennessee and finally secures the SEC 4 bids in the dance. Tennessee whose profile is slightly weaker than Missouri's falls well back with this loss and more than likely needs an SEC tournament title to make the field.
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Bubble Movers (Through Sunday March 2
This is a new piece I am trying to help explain why I have certain teams in or out and to help describe why I moved teams in the bracket.
Biggest Risers
Xavier- With their home win over Creighton on Saturday they basically solidified their spot in the field unless something drastic happens. Before the weekend they were a part of the last four in category, but now are safely in as a 10 seed.
Oregon- Oregon was able to pick up two road wins @UCLA and @USC this week. The UCLA game was a wild one that went to double OT when it never should have gotten that far. We almost saw Oregon crush their own bubble hopes against a UCLA team that had it's top 2 players suspended but instead they were able to pull out a road win that still counts big on their resume. Besides that while USC is a very poor team it does add another road win to their resume. They went from the first four out category to one of the last four byes.
Dayton- They may have been the biggest winner of the week. After their blowout loss @St. Joseph's earlier in the week it appeared as if Dayton's tourney hopes were falling fast. Instead they recorded a huge win over a very good Massachusetts team that moved them from the Next four out category all the way into the play-in game in tonight's projected bracket.
Arkansas- If Dayton was not the biggest winner Arkansas certainly was. They almost appeared out of nowhere in an SEC that seemingly appeared to only want 2 bids. With their wins @Kentucky and at home to Georgia this week they jumped from off the radar to in the play-in game.
Indiana- With three games this week due to the rescheduling of the Iowa game the Hoosiers were able to get themselves into a situation where their final two regular season games(v.s. Nebraska @Michigan) could get them close to a bid. Indiana was able to record two good wins against Iowa and Ohio State at home that got them into this situation.
Illinois- This may seem as a stretch to some of you but stick with me here as I explain. Obviously like Indiana, Illinois has a lot of work to do but they have put themselves in a situation now where that seems possible. Just 2 weeks ago Illinois was 3-10 in the Big Ten and completely out of even the NIT picture. After wins @ Minnesota, Nebraska, and @ Michigan St. Illinois has now put themselves in a position where they can make a move quickly. Their last two games are v.s. Michigan and @Iowa. If they were to win those games their resume would be surprisingly strong.
Biggest Fallers
Kentucky- While they are obviously still well in the field it is hard not to bring up the epic fall of the Wildcats that were once thought by "experts" to have a chance at going undefeated. This week they lost at home to Arkansas and stunningly @ South Carolina to take them all the way from a 5 seed to the dreaded 8/9 game where a #1 seed would be in waiting. They still have a chance in the SEC tournament to right the ship but they are falling fast.
Richmond- Richmond shows how fast a team can destroy their tournament profile. Just last week Richmond was projected in the field as an 11 seed and even ranked high enough in the field to avoid the play- in game. Now after losses @ George Mason and @Rhode Island, two RPI sub 150 teams, they are well outside of the field. It is important to note though that their chances are not completely dead yet because their final two games are v.s. VCU and @ Dayton which are two teams projected in the field. With how much damage they did though last week they would probably need both to get back into serious consideration.
North Carolina St.- For some time N.C. St. sat just outside of the field but after this week they have completely ruined any at large chance they dreamed of unless they go on a big run in the ACC tournament. Early in the weak they had a huge opportunity v.s. North Carolina to boost their profile and move into the field. Despite that they lost to North Carolina their profile remained in tact until they were inexplicably beat at home by Miami. The combination of the two losses puts them on the dark side of the bubble.
March 3, 2014 Bracketology
1 Seeds- Arizona, Florida, Wichita St., Syracuse
2 Seeds- Kansas, Wisconsin, Villanova, Michigan
3 Seeds- Creighton, Iowa St., Virginia, Duke
4 Seeds- Michigan St., San Diego St., Texas, St. Louis
5 Seeds- North Carolina, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, UCLA
6 Seeds- New Mexico, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville
7 Seeds- Kansas St., VCU, Iowa, Arizona St.
8 Seeds- George Washington, St. Joseph's, Kentucky, Ohio St.
9 Seeds- Oklahoma St., Baylor, Colorado, Pittsburgh
10 Seeds- Stanford, Xavier, Memphis, Florida St.
11 Seeds- Oregon, California, Arkansas/Dayton, Stephen F. Austin
12 Seeds- Providence/SMU, Gonzaga, Green Bay, Harvard
13 Seeds- Toledo, Louisiana Tech, Belmont, North Carolina Central
14 Seeds- Delaware, North Dakota St., Iona, Boston U
15 Seeds- Georgia St., Davidson, UC Irvine, Mercer
16 Seeds- Vermont, Robert Morris, Utah Valley/Alabama St., Weber St./High Point
Last four byes: Memphis, Oregon, California, Florida St.
Last four in: SMU, Providence, Dayton, Arkansas
First four out: Minnesota, Missouri, Marquette, BYU
Next four out: Southern Miss, Utah, Tennessee, Nebraska
Hanging onto a prayer: St. John's, Indiana, Illinois, Richmond, Clemson, Georgetown
The seeds are listed in true seed order (i.e. Arizona(#1overall 1 seed) and Syracuse(#4 overall 1 seed) throughout. With that said there were a number of teams who either moved a seed for their convenience or had to be moved so that they could fit into the bracket and they will be listed below.
North Carolina- They were moved from a 4 seed on the S-Curve to a 5 seed so they could play in Buffalo instead of having to travel to Spokane. That moved St. Louis to a 4.
Oregon- Oregon fell from a 10 to an 11 seed because another PAC 12 team could not fit into the bottom of the bracket. Florida St. was moved up because they were the next seed in the seed order who could fit (California was ahead of them but obviously could not fit as well.) So Florida St. was the last team with a bye but they had to move up a seed line in this particular bracket.
Providence/SMU- SMU due to all four brackets having an AAC team in the bottom half of the bracket could not be an 11 so they and Providence were bumped to a 12 for their play-in game. Note that they were both in ahead of Dayton and Arkansas but had to be bumped a seed line accordingly.
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