With bubble teams galore meeting up in the first round of all of the major conference tournaments some will have their fates sealed while others will begin magical runs through March. In this post I intend to outline the biggest first round match-ups in which the loser will fall permanently on the outside of the bubble.
Maryland v.s. Florida St.
Thursday @ 12:00 P.M. ET
While Maryland would clearly need to win the ACC tournament to make it into the field Florida St. still has an opportunity to get an at large bid with 2 wins in the ACC tournament. This is the case because the winner of this game will play 1 seed Virginia in the next round. The combination of wins over a top 100 Maryland and a top 15 RPI Virginia would give Florida St. a very good chance to make the field.
Prediction: Florida St. will hold off Maryland in the first game in what I expect to be a low scoring very tight game. That will set up an opportunity for Florida St. to control their own fate against Virginia.
St. John's v.s. Providence
Thursday @ 2:30 P.M. ET
We could not ask for a better first round Big East matchup than this. With these two teams both so near a bid this game should have an incredible amount of tension. One thing we know for sure is the loser will most certainly be completely eliminated from contention for an at large bid. The winner will have a massive opportunity though v.s. Villanova in the next round to solidify a bid. This game is a must watch.
Prediction: Providence, who sits ahead of St. John's on the bid board, wins knocking St. John's out of contention. If this scenario plays out there is still an outside shot that if they lost to Villanova that they could receive an at large bid if several bids are not stolen.
Marquette v.s. Xavier
Thursday @ 9:30 P.M. ET
If the tension in the first Big East matchup is not enough this one certainly will fill the void. While Marquette is well outside of the field at the moment either team could potentially work their way into an at large bid without winning the conference tournament if they were to advance far enough. Xavier, as of this moment sits in the projected play-in game so just as before the loser of this game will be eliminated from bubble contention. If you have not figured it out yet Thursday will start to give the bubble picture a lot more clarity.
Prediction: Xavier slips by Marquette keeping them in the projected field and giving them a potential bid sealing chance against Creighton(if they can get by Georgetown first).
Illinois v.s. Indiana
Thursday @ 12:00 A.M. ET
Indiana will most likely have to win the Big Ten tournament to get a bid but Illinois with a couple of wins stunningly may be able to steal a bid. Illinois' has been tremendous down the stretch winning four of their last five games. Illinois' resume is much stronger than most people realize because they get caught up in the 7-11 conference record(which the committee does not use as a factor). The stat that may help Illinois the most is that they have 5 true road wins and 3 neutral site wins including wins @Michigan St., @Minnesota, @Iowa, and a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Missouri. We know how much the committee cherishes road and neutral site wins so they may not be as far out as some expect if they were to win at least 2 in the Big Ten tournament.
Prediction: Illinois' defensive resurgence over the last month will provide them just enough to slip by Indiana. After that the theme continues as they will have a chance to play #1 seed Michigan potentially for an at large birth.
One quick side not as well is that the Big 12 and Pac 12 tournaments will set up some huge games in the second round among bubble contenders but we will have to wait and see how the first round pans out in those tournaments before we know what is at stake.
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