Tournament Notes/Concerns

4/5 Seed travel 
If your team falls on the 4 seed or 5 seed line it may not be a good thing.  With the Midwest and Eastern United States compiling the vast majority of the 1-4 seeds(all but Arizona and San Diego St. at this point) that means that location will be a big issue for the 4 and 5 seed East Coast teams in particular.  With Arizona obviously going to play in San Diego and San Diego St. most likely playing in Spokane that leaves each of those sites sitting there when the 4 seed line come around.  What this means is more than likely some East coast team, if not two, is going to have to be shipped all the way to the West coast to play in the first couple of rounds of the tournament.  The top 4 seed lines are location protected, which means they play as close to home as possible, but with the majority of the West coast teams being in the middle of the bracket the 4 and 5 seed lines are not a fun place to be.

BYU
They may have the hardest resume of anyone in the country to figure out.  BYU has a tidy RPI of 35 and wins over Stanford, Texas, and Gonzaga but they also have the worst losses of any bubble team.  They have lost to Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, and Pacific which all can be characterized as bad losses.  Even worse Loyola, Pepperdine, and Portland are all outside of the top 150 which means BYU has stunningly lost to 3 really bad teams but that seems to be overlooked.  I think the determining factor is that not only does BYU have the worst losses of any bubble team but their three best wins are not extraordinary by any means.  I may stand alone in this thought but I think BYU needs to win the WCC tournament to get into the big dance.

Arkansas
The national pundits have been glowing about Arkansas as of late and  they have good reason to because they have been playing tremendous.  Arkansas has beaten 8 of it's last 9 opponents and that 1 loss came to Missouri by one.  The problem with the national media is they often do not remember to take into account the entire season and instead focus on the here and now when they claim that teams are now "locks for the tournament."  I would like to say I do have Arkansas in the field as of now but only as an 11 in the play-in game.  If they keep winning they will certainly receive a bid but at this point they most certainly need to keep winning because they may not be as close to a lock as some suggest.

Tuesday Night Recap(2/18)

Clemson 73 North Carolina St. 56
Clemson ended up beating North Carolina St. by 17 moving them farther outside of the bubble.  This was a game that would have helped North Carolina St. more than Clemson because a road win against a fellow bubble team would have really helped to bolster their profile.  Instead they both appear to be in limbo and will have an uphill climb to make the field.

Outcome:  North Carolina St. will most likely fall out of the first four out category.
                 Clemson receives a minor bump but still remains well outside of the field and still behind N.C. St.

George Washington 73 Richmond 65 
George Washington receives a huge road win in the Atlantic 10 tonight.  Their resume was already very strong but now they have an opportunity, if they finish strong, to potentially move as far as a 6-7 seed if they keep winning.  The goal for them will be to win enough quality games down the stretch to hopefully avoid the 1-2 seed lines in the second round.  Richmond on the other hand, while losing a huge opportunity at home to bolster their profile, does not take a big hit with this loss due to the quality of George Washington.

Outcome:  George Washington receives a bump and will probably appear a seed line higher.
                  Richmond remains in the field for now but lost a great chance to improve their resume.


Other Games of Note:
Kentucky 84  Ole Miss 70
- Kentucky effectively ended Mississippi's small hope for an at large bid.  Mississippi needed several quality wins at this point to reach the field and at this point that seems unlikely with few opportunities remaining.

Iowa St. 85 Texas 76
Iowa St. held serve at home in this one and will receive a small bump but regardless both teams remain in great shape for a 3-5 seed.  The reason Iowa St. only receives a small bump is because the few teams in front of them all still have overall better resumes.

Villanova 82  Providence 79 2OT
Providence missed a huge opportunity to get a defining win that would have put them well into the field at this point.  Instead Villanova survived and records a quality road win.

There are no major games being played in the 9ET time period.  The only potential news will be if one of the top ranked teams(Duke, Virginia, Kansas, and San Diego St.) were to lose to the lesser opponent they play tonight.  Also if Tennessee beats Georgia they will receive a very small bump but with how close they are to the field it may be enough to get them in we will have to see.  Lastly the bracket seeds update will  happen tonight after the San Diego St. game.



               

Bubble Watch: Games of the Week

There are no more important games for bubble teams than those in which they have to play other teams who are searching for the same final spots in the tournament.   These are the kind of games where a team often looks back and can point to  as the reason they made the tournament or missed the tournament.  As we know there is often little separation at the end of the bubble.  These are three games(of many) that will put two teams fighting it out to make the tournament against each other.


North Carolina St. @ Clemson
Tuesday, February 18 at 7:00 P.M. ET

This matchup pits two teams who seem to be on the outside of the field looking in and in Clemson's case several waves back from the field.  It is a huge opportunity for both but maybe no more than N.C. St., who truly appears to be right on the edge, to gain a big road win to send them over the edge.  Clemson has much more work to do but this could completely pop their bubble if they were to lose at home to another bubble team.


Xavier @ Georgetown
Saturday, February 22 at 11:30 A.M. ET

While at this point Xavier appears to be well in the field the jumble that is the middle of the Big East will eventually undoubtedly leave someone at home come March.  Georgetown at this point appears to be the team that is closest to the bubble that is just on the outside looking in.  This is a huge opportunity for Georgetown to knock another middle Big East team down a notch and to propel themselves back into next weeks field.  The stakes are no less for Xavier though as a win on the road at Georgetown would most likely solidify their bid with their stable resume.


Baylor @ West Virginia 
Saturday, February 22 at 1:30 P.M. ET

Baylor and West Virginia are rising quickly back up into contention for bids after rocky stretches in the Big 12.  The winner of this game will have a tremendous opportunity to appear in next weeks bracket.  In their cases their resumes seem eerily similar and this may be a tilting point for one.  While Baylor after their three wins in a row are currently projected into the field they are sitting in the Last 4 in category, a place where no one feels safe.  West Virginia two weeks ago was barely even in the conversation for a bid and now the streaking mountaineers could appear in the projected field for the first time if they win in Morgantown.

Monday Night Recap(2/17)

From here on out until the tournament begins I will do a small recap of the most important games that occur each night and their affects on each teams tournament resume.

North Carolina @ Florida St. 

Probably the most important game to date for the Seminoles who are squarely on the bubble.  They had an opportunity to pick up a quality win and a chance to move safely into the field for the moment.  Instead North Carolina went to Tallahassee and not only knocked off Florida St. but added a quality road win to their resume in pursuit of avoiding the treacherous 7-10 seed range.  The important thing to remember is a loss to North Carolina does not hurt Florida State's resume but rather allows other teams behind them this week to jump the Seminoles if they are able to obtain quality wins.  The big problem for Florida State, and all teams on the edge of the bubble, is that there are a surplus of bubble teams bunched up this year that have very similar resumes.  

Outcome:   Florida St. most likely moves out of the bracket for now.

                   North Carolina stays about the same.  

Oklahoma St. @ Baylor

In a game that was imperative for both teams Baylor continued their recent winning streak and won their third in a row.  Oklahoma St. forced overtime on a last second three after stealing the inbounds pass but fell in overtime and lost their seventh straight.  Baylor continues to climb back into the tournament picture as they have survived their rough stretch in the best conference in the country.  It is important to remember though despite the fact that Oklahoma State is now 4-9 in the Big 12 their overall body of work still remains strong and their losses in the last seven game stretch have been largely to quality opponents who do not hurt their resume (except Texas Tech and Baylor).  As stated above with Florida St. though despite that this loss will not vastly hurt their resume other teams continue to climb above them by beating quality opponents.  On a side note it will be interesting to see if the Selection Committee will weigh this stretch of games without Marcus Smart differently as we have seen in the past.

Outcome:  Baylor moves farther into the bracket and potentially past the play-in game.

                 Oklahoma St. continues to slide but remains in the field for now.  

Delaware @ Towson

A small note here Delaware lost their first conference game tonight at Towson.  Towson sits in second place in the Colonial Athletic Association behind Delaware and is proving that there is a second quality team in the CAA.  The conference tournament should be interesting.

Outcome:  Delaware currently remains the projected CAA auto-bid.  

There will be no updated list of seeds tonight due to the low volume of games.  The seeds will be updated tomorrow night after the games.  

The Baylor and Oregon Dilemma

   As we approach the end of the conference season and tournament time hundreds of people are trying to get inside of the selection committee's heads and figure out who will ultimately be selected for the tournament.  While the tournament itself is austere the selection process is difficult to grasp because of the continuous changing of the guard within the committee.  In particular this season we may be stuck with two teams, in Baylor and Oregon, who have sub .500 conference records but a strong case for the tournament.  Currently each sit at 4-8 in their respective conferences but lets imagine a couple of scenarios for each team.  First of all the reason both, at this point in the mock selection process, receive strong consideration for the tournament is because of their outstanding non-conference strength.  In Baylor's case they have three strong wins against Kentucky(Rpi 13), Colorado(Rpi 27), and Dayton (Rpi 59).  As an added bonus for Baylor all three of those wins were recorded in neutral sites.  In Oregon's case they recorded wins over Georgetown(Rpi 58), @Mississippi(Rpi 68),  and BYU (Rpi 40).  They also added lesser, but still contributing, non-conference wins over Illinois, San Francisco, Pacific, and UC Irvine.   I will skip a scenario where they go 8-10 in conference and receive a bid because that is not hard to imagine especially with teams like Illinois and Minnesota last year receiving bids with 8-10 conference records and similar strong non-conference records.  The question is could either receive a bid with a 7-11 conference record?  It's all fairly relative to who they beat down the stretch, what bids are stolen, and how the rest of the field pans out but could they do it?  The biggest issue I struggle with is will the committee truly only pay attention to the entire body of work or will a teams overall conference record have a determining factor?   While I can't say if a 7-11 conference record could provide the body of work necessary for a tournament bid I just have a hard time imagining despite what the resume may say that the committee would leave out a team from another power conference who went 10-8 with a lesser non-conference resume.  Ultimately despite the selection committee's rules I believe the overall body of work, on selection Sunday, would only go far if you ultimately don't finish at least near .500 in conference no matter what the entire body of work says.  We will see how this plays out in the coming weeks.