Bubble Movers (Through Sunday March 2

This is a new piece I am trying to help explain why I have certain teams in or out and to help describe why I moved teams in the bracket.

Biggest Risers 

Xavier-   With their home win over Creighton on Saturday they basically solidified their spot in the field unless something drastic happens.  Before the weekend they were a part of the last four in category, but now are safely in as a 10 seed.

Oregon-  Oregon was able to pick up two road wins @UCLA and @USC this week. The UCLA game was a wild one that went to double OT when it never should have gotten that far.  We almost saw Oregon crush their own bubble hopes against a UCLA team that had it's top 2 players suspended but instead they were able to pull out a road win that still counts big on their resume.  Besides that while USC is a very poor team it does add another road win to their resume.  They went from the first four out category to one of the last four byes.

Dayton-  They may have been the biggest winner of the week.  After their blowout loss @St. Joseph's earlier in the week it appeared as if Dayton's tourney hopes were falling fast.  Instead they recorded a huge win over a very good Massachusetts team that moved them from the Next four out category all the way into the play-in game in tonight's projected bracket.  

Arkansas- If Dayton was not the biggest winner Arkansas certainly was.  They almost appeared out of nowhere in an SEC that seemingly appeared to only want 2 bids.  With their wins @Kentucky and at home to Georgia this week they jumped from off the radar to in the play-in game.

Indiana- With three games this week due to the rescheduling of the Iowa game the Hoosiers were able to get themselves into a situation where their final two regular season games(v.s. Nebraska @Michigan) could get them close to a bid.  Indiana was able to record two good wins against Iowa and Ohio State at home that got them into this situation.

Illinois- This may seem as a stretch to some of you but stick with me here as I explain.  Obviously like Indiana, Illinois has a lot of work to do but they have put themselves in a situation now where that seems possible.  Just 2 weeks ago Illinois was 3-10 in the Big Ten and completely out of even the NIT picture.  After wins @ Minnesota, Nebraska, and @ Michigan St.  Illinois has now put themselves in a position where they can make a move quickly.   Their last two games are v.s. Michigan and @Iowa.  If they were to win those games their resume would be surprisingly strong.


Biggest Fallers 

Kentucky-  While they are obviously still well in the field it is hard not to bring up the epic fall of the Wildcats that were once thought by "experts" to have a chance at going undefeated.  This week they lost at home to Arkansas and stunningly @ South Carolina to take them all the way from a 5 seed to the dreaded 8/9 game where a #1 seed would be in waiting.  They still have a chance in the SEC tournament to right the ship but they are falling fast.

Richmond- Richmond shows how fast a team can destroy their tournament profile.  Just last week Richmond was projected in the field as an 11 seed and even ranked high enough in the field to avoid the play- in game.  Now after losses @ George Mason and @Rhode Island, two RPI sub 150 teams, they are well outside of the field.  It is important to note though that their chances are not completely dead yet because their final two games are v.s. VCU and @ Dayton which are two teams projected in the field.   With how much damage they did though last week they would probably need both to get back into serious consideration.

North Carolina St.- For some time N.C. St. sat just outside of the field but after this week they have completely ruined any at large chance they dreamed of unless they go on a big run in the ACC tournament.  Early in the weak they had a huge opportunity v.s. North Carolina to boost their profile and move into the field.  Despite that they lost to North Carolina their profile remained in tact until they were inexplicably beat at home by Miami.  The combination of the two losses puts them on the dark side of the bubble.

Tuesday Night Recap(2/18)

Clemson 73 North Carolina St. 56
Clemson ended up beating North Carolina St. by 17 moving them farther outside of the bubble.  This was a game that would have helped North Carolina St. more than Clemson because a road win against a fellow bubble team would have really helped to bolster their profile.  Instead they both appear to be in limbo and will have an uphill climb to make the field.

Outcome:  North Carolina St. will most likely fall out of the first four out category.
                 Clemson receives a minor bump but still remains well outside of the field and still behind N.C. St.

George Washington 73 Richmond 65 
George Washington receives a huge road win in the Atlantic 10 tonight.  Their resume was already very strong but now they have an opportunity, if they finish strong, to potentially move as far as a 6-7 seed if they keep winning.  The goal for them will be to win enough quality games down the stretch to hopefully avoid the 1-2 seed lines in the second round.  Richmond on the other hand, while losing a huge opportunity at home to bolster their profile, does not take a big hit with this loss due to the quality of George Washington.

Outcome:  George Washington receives a bump and will probably appear a seed line higher.
                  Richmond remains in the field for now but lost a great chance to improve their resume.


Other Games of Note:
Kentucky 84  Ole Miss 70
- Kentucky effectively ended Mississippi's small hope for an at large bid.  Mississippi needed several quality wins at this point to reach the field and at this point that seems unlikely with few opportunities remaining.

Iowa St. 85 Texas 76
Iowa St. held serve at home in this one and will receive a small bump but regardless both teams remain in great shape for a 3-5 seed.  The reason Iowa St. only receives a small bump is because the few teams in front of them all still have overall better resumes.

Villanova 82  Providence 79 2OT
Providence missed a huge opportunity to get a defining win that would have put them well into the field at this point.  Instead Villanova survived and records a quality road win.

There are no major games being played in the 9ET time period.  The only potential news will be if one of the top ranked teams(Duke, Virginia, Kansas, and San Diego St.) were to lose to the lesser opponent they play tonight.  Also if Tennessee beats Georgia they will receive a very small bump but with how close they are to the field it may be enough to get them in we will have to see.  Lastly the bracket seeds update will  happen tonight after the San Diego St. game.