As we move farther along in the season in most years the one seeds separate themselves. While I think Arizona and Wichita St. at this moment are safely in as one seeds if any one of them of the choices were to lose that could quickly change. Syracuse and Florida on my big board remain as #1 seed currently but my bracket math is starting to make that fourth #1 seed image murky. The team that is competing for that last spot is Kansas. Now if you look at the bare essentials generally everyone believes that Kansas will be left out of that picture because they have six losses while Arizona, Syracuse, and Florida each have two and Wichita St. has none. That is the only factor that would keep Kansas from being a #1 seed and I will explain why.
Kansas has arguably played the toughest schedule in at least a decade. Not only do they play in the Big 12, the best conference in the country this year, but they also had the #1 Non-Conference Strength of schedule. What does this all add up to? It means they played an astronomical amount of top 100 opponents so lets break each of the #1 seed candidates by the math.
Kansas v.s. RPI top 25 7-5 Arizona v.s. RPI top 25 4-0
v.s. RPI top 50 12-6 v.s. RPI top 50 9-1
v.s. RPI top 100 17-6 v.s. RPI top 100 14-2
Florida v.s. RPI top 25 2-1 Syracuse v.s. RPI top 25 3-1
v.s. RPI top 50 5-2 v.s. RPI top 50 7-1
v.s. RPI top 100 13-2 v.s. RPI top 100 15-1
Wichita St. v.s. RPI top 25 1-0
v.s. RPI top 50 2-0
v.s. RPI top 100 6-0
While the numbers obviously show that Wichita St. clearly has an extremely weak resume I just can't imagine a scenario where the Selection Committee would put an undefeated potential 34-0 Wichita St. team anywhere except a #1 seed. It is important to note though if Wichita St. were to lose it's last regular season game or in the Missouri Valley Tournament they would most certainly not be a #1. Quite literally the 0 in their loss column is the only thing holding them on the top line.
Now with the Wichita St. scenario laid out lets move onto Arizona. I believe they have by far the strongest profile of any of the teams and for that reason they remain my top overall seed. While they lack the amount of games Kansas has played against the top 25, 50, and 100 their overall quality far surpasses Kansas. They have won 90% of the games they played against the Top 50 which is mind blowing while Kansas has won 50%. Their win percentage along with the strength of the PAC 12 leads me to believe that Arizona will be a #1 seed regardless of what happens down the line.
Comparing the other 3 teams is where things get interesting. While Florida and Syracuse have sterling records against the top 100 Kansas far surpasses both in top 25 and top 50 wins. They more than triple Florida in top 25 wins and double up Syracuse in the same category. The question then comes back to where started in this article do the 6 losses matter? I would argue in most cases having 4 more losses than either team is important but 5 of the 6 losses by Kansas were to top 25 RPI teams. The other was to RPI 36 Kansas State. Let me recap that the worst team that Kansas lost to is RPI 36 on the road. If we dig a little bit deeper out of 31 games against division 1 opponents this season Kansas will have played 3 teams ranked outside of the RPI 150.
v.s. RPI sub 150
Kansas 3-0
Florida 9-0
Syracuse 8-1
That number may be the most astonishing of all. We often say every game is a grind for power conference teams but every schedule in the nation pales in comparison to Kansas. They quite literally decided to play every good team they possibly could and we penalize them with a #2 seed because they lost 6 games when they played top 25 teams 9 more times than Florida and 8 more times than Syracuse?
There is still a lot to play out but figuratively if Kansas is to win out and win the Big 12 tournament with the addition of the quality wins it would most certainly take to do so regardless of what Syracuse or Florida do Kansas would have to be a #1 seed. There could also be an argument made that if Syracuse or Florida were to lose, with fewer opportunities to improve their resumes that Kansas could achieve a #1 seed that way as well. Overall we still have more time to evaluate each team but everyday Kansas appears to be making it harder to leave them off of the 1 line.
Showing posts with label Syracuse. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syracuse. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Wednesday Night Recap(2/19)
Boston College 62 Syracuse 59 OT
Syracuse lost a mind boggling game to 7-19 Boston College. It was apparent that this was coming with how they have been playing but it was hard to imagine it would be at home to Boston College. Nonetheless, despite probably the biggest upset of the season, Syracuse remains a #1 seed.
Outcome: Syracuse remains a #1 seed but Arizona takes over as the #1 overall.
Creighton 85 Marquette 70
This game is mostly about what Marquette didn't get done as much as the win for Creighton. This is just another example of a bubble team on the outside looking in not getting it done against a good opponent. This does not hurt Marquette but eventually one of the many bubble teams will get a huge win and everyone else will not have much to complain about given everyones opportunities.
Outcome:Creighton continues to move up the bracket and solidify their place as a 3-4 seed.
Marquette remains outside of the bracket, but within a stones throw.
West Coast Madness
The night's biggest movers and shakers certainly were going to occur out West with a slew of big matchups.
Arizona 67 Utah 63 OT
Arizona faced a scare against a solid Utah team on the road but was able to survive and maintain their place in the bracket. Utah missed a huge chance to get back into the discussion for a bid.
UCLA 86 California 66
UCLA improved their resume in a rout at Cal and will most certainly move up in the bracket after collecting a top 50 win on the road. Cal remains the same due to the quality of UCLA.
Oregon 78 Washington 71
Oregon collected a top 100 win at home and all of the sudden the ducks are back to 5-8 in conference play along with their stellar non-conference schedule they are back in the discussion for a bid.
Colorado 61 Arizona St. 52
In a matchup of two teams that appear to be in the 6-10 range of the tournament picture Colorado collected another big win at home. Colorado has proven that they are still a solid team without Dinwiddie going 6-4 in their 10 games without him. Both teams appear to be in good shape for tournament bids.
New Mexico 68 UNLV 56
New Mexico continued to build their already solid tournament resume tonight at UNLV. This game didn't help them as much as it would have hurt them but nonetheless on a day where many failed to help themselves New Mexico continues to press forward.
Other Games of Note:
Florida 71 Auburn 66; St. Louis 89 George Mason 85 OT
On a night when the #1 team went down to an inferior opponent credit has to be given to Florida and St. Louis for holding on and not suffering a similar loss as Syracuse. Both were given a scare but were able to find a way to win.
Illinois 62 Minnesota 49
Minnesota took a big hit at home losing to an Illinois team that had lost 10 of 11 coming into the game. Illinois was an rpi top 100 team so the loss is not as devastating as some believe but with such a huge mash up of teams at the end of the bracket that are deserving it is a body blow. Minneosta now has a three game stretch of @Ohio St., Iowa, and @Michigan that will make or break their season.
A new bracket prediction will be released tomorrow so until then last nights can hold you over. There should be a decent amount of change given the volume and importance of games that were played today and that will be played tomorrow.
Syracuse lost a mind boggling game to 7-19 Boston College. It was apparent that this was coming with how they have been playing but it was hard to imagine it would be at home to Boston College. Nonetheless, despite probably the biggest upset of the season, Syracuse remains a #1 seed.
Outcome: Syracuse remains a #1 seed but Arizona takes over as the #1 overall.
Creighton 85 Marquette 70
This game is mostly about what Marquette didn't get done as much as the win for Creighton. This is just another example of a bubble team on the outside looking in not getting it done against a good opponent. This does not hurt Marquette but eventually one of the many bubble teams will get a huge win and everyone else will not have much to complain about given everyones opportunities.
Outcome:Creighton continues to move up the bracket and solidify their place as a 3-4 seed.
Marquette remains outside of the bracket, but within a stones throw.
West Coast Madness
The night's biggest movers and shakers certainly were going to occur out West with a slew of big matchups.
Arizona 67 Utah 63 OT
Arizona faced a scare against a solid Utah team on the road but was able to survive and maintain their place in the bracket. Utah missed a huge chance to get back into the discussion for a bid.
UCLA 86 California 66
UCLA improved their resume in a rout at Cal and will most certainly move up in the bracket after collecting a top 50 win on the road. Cal remains the same due to the quality of UCLA.
Oregon 78 Washington 71
Oregon collected a top 100 win at home and all of the sudden the ducks are back to 5-8 in conference play along with their stellar non-conference schedule they are back in the discussion for a bid.
Colorado 61 Arizona St. 52
In a matchup of two teams that appear to be in the 6-10 range of the tournament picture Colorado collected another big win at home. Colorado has proven that they are still a solid team without Dinwiddie going 6-4 in their 10 games without him. Both teams appear to be in good shape for tournament bids.
New Mexico 68 UNLV 56
New Mexico continued to build their already solid tournament resume tonight at UNLV. This game didn't help them as much as it would have hurt them but nonetheless on a day where many failed to help themselves New Mexico continues to press forward.
Other Games of Note:
Florida 71 Auburn 66; St. Louis 89 George Mason 85 OT
On a night when the #1 team went down to an inferior opponent credit has to be given to Florida and St. Louis for holding on and not suffering a similar loss as Syracuse. Both were given a scare but were able to find a way to win.
Illinois 62 Minnesota 49
Minnesota took a big hit at home losing to an Illinois team that had lost 10 of 11 coming into the game. Illinois was an rpi top 100 team so the loss is not as devastating as some believe but with such a huge mash up of teams at the end of the bracket that are deserving it is a body blow. Minneosta now has a three game stretch of @Ohio St., Iowa, and @Michigan that will make or break their season.
A new bracket prediction will be released tomorrow so until then last nights can hold you over. There should be a decent amount of change given the volume and importance of games that were played today and that will be played tomorrow.
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