With bubble teams galore meeting up in the first round of all of the major conference tournaments some will have their fates sealed while others will begin magical runs through March. In this post I intend to outline the biggest first round match-ups in which the loser will fall permanently on the outside of the bubble.
Maryland v.s. Florida St.
Thursday @ 12:00 P.M. ET
While Maryland would clearly need to win the ACC tournament to make it into the field Florida St. still has an opportunity to get an at large bid with 2 wins in the ACC tournament. This is the case because the winner of this game will play 1 seed Virginia in the next round. The combination of wins over a top 100 Maryland and a top 15 RPI Virginia would give Florida St. a very good chance to make the field.
Prediction: Florida St. will hold off Maryland in the first game in what I expect to be a low scoring very tight game. That will set up an opportunity for Florida St. to control their own fate against Virginia.
St. John's v.s. Providence
Thursday @ 2:30 P.M. ET
We could not ask for a better first round Big East matchup than this. With these two teams both so near a bid this game should have an incredible amount of tension. One thing we know for sure is the loser will most certainly be completely eliminated from contention for an at large bid. The winner will have a massive opportunity though v.s. Villanova in the next round to solidify a bid. This game is a must watch.
Prediction: Providence, who sits ahead of St. John's on the bid board, wins knocking St. John's out of contention. If this scenario plays out there is still an outside shot that if they lost to Villanova that they could receive an at large bid if several bids are not stolen.
Marquette v.s. Xavier
Thursday @ 9:30 P.M. ET
If the tension in the first Big East matchup is not enough this one certainly will fill the void. While Marquette is well outside of the field at the moment either team could potentially work their way into an at large bid without winning the conference tournament if they were to advance far enough. Xavier, as of this moment sits in the projected play-in game so just as before the loser of this game will be eliminated from bubble contention. If you have not figured it out yet Thursday will start to give the bubble picture a lot more clarity.
Prediction: Xavier slips by Marquette keeping them in the projected field and giving them a potential bid sealing chance against Creighton(if they can get by Georgetown first).
Illinois v.s. Indiana
Thursday @ 12:00 A.M. ET
Indiana will most likely have to win the Big Ten tournament to get a bid but Illinois with a couple of wins stunningly may be able to steal a bid. Illinois' has been tremendous down the stretch winning four of their last five games. Illinois' resume is much stronger than most people realize because they get caught up in the 7-11 conference record(which the committee does not use as a factor). The stat that may help Illinois the most is that they have 5 true road wins and 3 neutral site wins including wins @Michigan St., @Minnesota, @Iowa, and a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Missouri. We know how much the committee cherishes road and neutral site wins so they may not be as far out as some expect if they were to win at least 2 in the Big Ten tournament.
Prediction: Illinois' defensive resurgence over the last month will provide them just enough to slip by Indiana. After that the theme continues as they will have a chance to play #1 seed Michigan potentially for an at large birth.
One quick side not as well is that the Big 12 and Pac 12 tournaments will set up some huge games in the second round among bubble contenders but we will have to wait and see how the first round pans out in those tournaments before we know what is at stake.
Showing posts with label Providence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Providence. Show all posts
Monday, March 10, 2014
Monday, March 3, 2014
Bubble Watch Games of the Week (3/3-3/9)
Marquette @ Providence
Tuesday March 3, 9:00 P.M. ET
This is a massive game for both teams as they head into the final week of the season. Providence after a good week last week sits in the Last Four In category of yesterdays bracket while Marquette continues to hang around just outside of the bracket. With these two teams tied at 9-7 in Big East play on Selection Sunday the loser could look to this game as the reason they were left out while their counterpart was just inside the tournament. It will be interesting to see if Providence can keep up their rise into the bracket or if Marquette can finally get over the hump and put themselves on the right side of the bubble.
Prediction: Providence wins at home and begins to completely solidify their bid while Marquette misses out on another opportunity to push themselves into the dance.
Nebraska @ Indiana
Wednesday March 4, 7:00 P.M. ET
The winner of this game will move closer to the field but more importantly whomever loses this game will most likely be eliminated from any chance at an at large birth. That makes this matchup really intriguing because you have to imagine both teams will know how much is at stake. Both teams have been trending up as of late. Indiana has seemingly came out of no where to get into contention for a bid, but they can not afford another loss during the regular season. Nebraska sits in slightly better shape(Next Four Out Category) but with the bubble shrinking every loss could be a death blow.
Prediction: Indiana holds serve at home once again and comes within reach of a bid with an extremely difficult game @Michigan that would give them a bid. Nebraska with this loss falls to the point where they may need to win the BTT to receive a bid especially with their potential 2-9 road record.
Utah @ California
Wednesday March 4, 11:00 P.M. ET
California slowly but surely has been slipping in the field and they appear to be now floating right around the play-in game or just above. With that said Utah appears to finally be rising up the ranks into at least the conversation for a bid if they can keep winning. This point may be null and void because Utah may have to win their conference tournament in order to get in but their resume does have some meat on it.
Prediction: California holds serve at home and pretty much eliminates Utah from an at large berth. It is particularly hard to see Utah winning this game because they are just 1-7 on the road with that win coming at lowly USC. If Utah does not win this game they have no chance at all because the committee values road wins very highly.
Missouri @ Tennessee
Saturday March 8, 4:00 P.M. ET
This matchup will basically decide if and who will be the fourth team from the SEC. As long as Arkansas does not collapse it appears that they will find themselves in the field but the question all along was will there be a fourth SEC team? Well this matchup came at a perfect time to leave an impression in the committees mind between two teams that essentially have the same resume. Missouri in my projections is slightly ahead of Tennessee but without a doubt the winner of this game would jump the other.
Prediction: Missouri comes into Tennessee and finally secures the SEC 4 bids in the dance. Tennessee whose profile is slightly weaker than Missouri's falls well back with this loss and more than likely needs an SEC tournament title to make the field.
Tuesday March 3, 9:00 P.M. ET
This is a massive game for both teams as they head into the final week of the season. Providence after a good week last week sits in the Last Four In category of yesterdays bracket while Marquette continues to hang around just outside of the bracket. With these two teams tied at 9-7 in Big East play on Selection Sunday the loser could look to this game as the reason they were left out while their counterpart was just inside the tournament. It will be interesting to see if Providence can keep up their rise into the bracket or if Marquette can finally get over the hump and put themselves on the right side of the bubble.
Prediction: Providence wins at home and begins to completely solidify their bid while Marquette misses out on another opportunity to push themselves into the dance.
Nebraska @ Indiana
Wednesday March 4, 7:00 P.M. ET
The winner of this game will move closer to the field but more importantly whomever loses this game will most likely be eliminated from any chance at an at large birth. That makes this matchup really intriguing because you have to imagine both teams will know how much is at stake. Both teams have been trending up as of late. Indiana has seemingly came out of no where to get into contention for a bid, but they can not afford another loss during the regular season. Nebraska sits in slightly better shape(Next Four Out Category) but with the bubble shrinking every loss could be a death blow.
Prediction: Indiana holds serve at home once again and comes within reach of a bid with an extremely difficult game @Michigan that would give them a bid. Nebraska with this loss falls to the point where they may need to win the BTT to receive a bid especially with their potential 2-9 road record.
Utah @ California
Wednesday March 4, 11:00 P.M. ET
California slowly but surely has been slipping in the field and they appear to be now floating right around the play-in game or just above. With that said Utah appears to finally be rising up the ranks into at least the conversation for a bid if they can keep winning. This point may be null and void because Utah may have to win their conference tournament in order to get in but their resume does have some meat on it.
Prediction: California holds serve at home and pretty much eliminates Utah from an at large berth. It is particularly hard to see Utah winning this game because they are just 1-7 on the road with that win coming at lowly USC. If Utah does not win this game they have no chance at all because the committee values road wins very highly.
Missouri @ Tennessee
Saturday March 8, 4:00 P.M. ET
This matchup will basically decide if and who will be the fourth team from the SEC. As long as Arkansas does not collapse it appears that they will find themselves in the field but the question all along was will there be a fourth SEC team? Well this matchup came at a perfect time to leave an impression in the committees mind between two teams that essentially have the same resume. Missouri in my projections is slightly ahead of Tennessee but without a doubt the winner of this game would jump the other.
Prediction: Missouri comes into Tennessee and finally secures the SEC 4 bids in the dance. Tennessee whose profile is slightly weaker than Missouri's falls well back with this loss and more than likely needs an SEC tournament title to make the field.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Tuesday Night Recap(2/18)
Clemson 73 North Carolina St. 56
Clemson ended up beating North Carolina St. by 17 moving them farther outside of the bubble. This was a game that would have helped North Carolina St. more than Clemson because a road win against a fellow bubble team would have really helped to bolster their profile. Instead they both appear to be in limbo and will have an uphill climb to make the field.
Outcome: North Carolina St. will most likely fall out of the first four out category.
Clemson receives a minor bump but still remains well outside of the field and still behind N.C. St.
George Washington 73 Richmond 65
George Washington receives a huge road win in the Atlantic 10 tonight. Their resume was already very strong but now they have an opportunity, if they finish strong, to potentially move as far as a 6-7 seed if they keep winning. The goal for them will be to win enough quality games down the stretch to hopefully avoid the 1-2 seed lines in the second round. Richmond on the other hand, while losing a huge opportunity at home to bolster their profile, does not take a big hit with this loss due to the quality of George Washington.
Outcome: George Washington receives a bump and will probably appear a seed line higher.
Richmond remains in the field for now but lost a great chance to improve their resume.
Other Games of Note:
Kentucky 84 Ole Miss 70
- Kentucky effectively ended Mississippi's small hope for an at large bid. Mississippi needed several quality wins at this point to reach the field and at this point that seems unlikely with few opportunities remaining.
Iowa St. 85 Texas 76
Iowa St. held serve at home in this one and will receive a small bump but regardless both teams remain in great shape for a 3-5 seed. The reason Iowa St. only receives a small bump is because the few teams in front of them all still have overall better resumes.
Villanova 82 Providence 79 2OT
Providence missed a huge opportunity to get a defining win that would have put them well into the field at this point. Instead Villanova survived and records a quality road win.
There are no major games being played in the 9ET time period. The only potential news will be if one of the top ranked teams(Duke, Virginia, Kansas, and San Diego St.) were to lose to the lesser opponent they play tonight. Also if Tennessee beats Georgia they will receive a very small bump but with how close they are to the field it may be enough to get them in we will have to see. Lastly the bracket seeds update will happen tonight after the San Diego St. game.
Clemson ended up beating North Carolina St. by 17 moving them farther outside of the bubble. This was a game that would have helped North Carolina St. more than Clemson because a road win against a fellow bubble team would have really helped to bolster their profile. Instead they both appear to be in limbo and will have an uphill climb to make the field.
Outcome: North Carolina St. will most likely fall out of the first four out category.
Clemson receives a minor bump but still remains well outside of the field and still behind N.C. St.
George Washington 73 Richmond 65
George Washington receives a huge road win in the Atlantic 10 tonight. Their resume was already very strong but now they have an opportunity, if they finish strong, to potentially move as far as a 6-7 seed if they keep winning. The goal for them will be to win enough quality games down the stretch to hopefully avoid the 1-2 seed lines in the second round. Richmond on the other hand, while losing a huge opportunity at home to bolster their profile, does not take a big hit with this loss due to the quality of George Washington.
Outcome: George Washington receives a bump and will probably appear a seed line higher.
Richmond remains in the field for now but lost a great chance to improve their resume.
Other Games of Note:
Kentucky 84 Ole Miss 70
- Kentucky effectively ended Mississippi's small hope for an at large bid. Mississippi needed several quality wins at this point to reach the field and at this point that seems unlikely with few opportunities remaining.
Iowa St. 85 Texas 76
Iowa St. held serve at home in this one and will receive a small bump but regardless both teams remain in great shape for a 3-5 seed. The reason Iowa St. only receives a small bump is because the few teams in front of them all still have overall better resumes.
Villanova 82 Providence 79 2OT
Providence missed a huge opportunity to get a defining win that would have put them well into the field at this point. Instead Villanova survived and records a quality road win.
There are no major games being played in the 9ET time period. The only potential news will be if one of the top ranked teams(Duke, Virginia, Kansas, and San Diego St.) were to lose to the lesser opponent they play tonight. Also if Tennessee beats Georgia they will receive a very small bump but with how close they are to the field it may be enough to get them in we will have to see. Lastly the bracket seeds update will happen tonight after the San Diego St. game.
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