Bubble Watch Games of the Night Tuesday 02/10/15

Instead of packing in the best bubble match ups for the week into one post I am going to do this segment nightly for a couple of weeks because this early in the season most teams still have work to do to seal up an NCAA Tournament berth.  As the season progresses and we head towards conference tournament time I will make this a weekly post as we have a clearer view of which teams are locks and which are on the bubble.  Some days will have very few games of note but in particular any Saturday will be chalked full of bubble action.  In fact right away Monday night has literally zero bubble implication games.  The only games of note all contain teams I would consider at this time safely in the NCAA tournament or completely out so I will skip ahead to Tuesday.  

Memphis @ East Carolina- The only reason this game is of any note is because if Memphis were to lose to East Carolina their NCAA hopes would probably be completely eliminated.  Their resume currently is very poor and they can not withstand another bad loss.  They need to win this game just to have a chance to make their few chances against quality opponents mean something.

Prediction: Memphis wins to stay on the far edge of the bubble.  

Notre Dame @ Clemson- Clemson's resume is similar to Memphis in that it leaves a lot to be desired and is not particularly good at this point.  The difference is while Memphis has to win to not fall completely off the big board Clemson has a chance to greatly improve their resume.  Clemson desperately needs a quality win and they are close enough that if they were to win a game of this caliber it may propel them into the first four out or next four out categories.  Clemson is 9-1 at home this season but their best win has came against Arkansas who is not quite at Notre Dame's level.  Nonetheless Clemson will stay fairly relevant win or lose because even if they were to lose a loss to Notre Dame does not kill their middling resume.  

Prediction: Notre Dame wins but Clemson lives on the bubble for at least another week.  

Michigan St. @ Northwestern- It does not take long to understand why this is an important game for Michigan State if you read my post below.  Michigan State's profile is very mediocre at this point and they can not afford a terrible loss to lowely Northwestern.  While this win would not particularly help Michigan State it would keep them on the right side of the bubble and give them another road win which are always valuable no matter where they come.  

Prediction: Michigan State rebounds from their home loss to Illinois and finds a way against a Northwestern team that despite their conference record has been very difficult to beat.  

Kentucky @ LSU- LSU has by far the biggest opportunity to jump off of the bubble of any team on Tuesday.  If they were to find a way to beat Kentucky unless they were to completely collapse it would be almost impossible for them to miss the NCAA tournament.  As it sits not they are one of the last 4 teams in the tournament in my predictions and if they were to lose to Kentucky that would not be likely to change unless the teams below them gained quality wins that allowed them to pass them.  Either way this is LSU's biggest opportunity of the season to in one game solidify their profile.

Prediction: Kentucky stays undefeated but LSU gives them one of their biggest challenges of the season in Baton Rouge expect this game to be very close.  

Cincinnati @ Temple- This is our first game of the night that contains two teams who are both fairly safely in the field at this time.  The importance of this game is not that either team would fall from the field if they were to lose but rather at the end of the year these kind of games are often a deciding factor between common teams if they both were to finish on the bubble.  Regardless of who wins though both teams will most likely remain in the predicted field for the time being.  

Prediction: Temple continues their strong run and beats Cincinnati at home.  

Other games of note: 

Xavier @ Marquette 

 Dayton @ St. Louis 

These both are the exact same scenario as Memphis and Michigan State are in.  Both teams are in the field at the moment but neither team can afford a bad loss.  I think Dayton will be fine because St. Louis this season has looked pretty much completely inept.  Xavier on the other hand faces a Marquette team that can be dangerous at home and Xavier has played very inconsistent at times over the season.  

Prediction: Dayton wins easily at St. Louis and remains in the field.

                   Marquette wins over an up and down Xavier team and Xavier falls from the field for the time being.  

                  

Do or Die: First Round Conference Tournament Match-ups

With bubble teams galore meeting up in the first round of all of the major conference tournaments some will have their fates sealed while others will begin magical runs through March.  In this post I intend to outline the biggest first round match-ups in which the loser will fall permanently on the outside of the bubble.

Maryland v.s. Florida St. 
Thursday @ 12:00 P.M. ET
While Maryland would clearly need to win the ACC tournament to make it into the field Florida St. still has an opportunity to get an at large bid with 2 wins in the ACC tournament.  This is the case because the winner of this game will play 1 seed Virginia in the next round.  The combination of wins over a top 100 Maryland and a top 15 RPI Virginia would give Florida St. a very good chance to make the field.
Prediction: Florida St. will hold off Maryland in the first game in what I expect to be a low scoring very tight game.  That will set up an opportunity for Florida St. to control their own fate against Virginia.



St. John's v.s. Providence 
Thursday @ 2:30 P.M. ET
We could not ask for a better first round Big East matchup than this.  With these two teams both so near a bid this game should have an incredible amount of tension.  One thing we know for sure  is the loser will most certainly be completely eliminated from contention for an at large bid.  The winner will have a massive opportunity though v.s. Villanova in the next round to solidify a bid.  This game is a must watch.
Prediction: Providence, who sits ahead of St. John's on the bid board, wins knocking St. John's out of contention.  If this scenario plays out there is still an outside shot that if they lost to Villanova that they could receive an at large bid if several bids are not stolen.


Marquette v.s. Xavier 
Thursday @ 9:30 P.M. ET
If the tension in the first Big East matchup is not enough this one certainly will fill the void.  While Marquette is well outside of the field at the moment either team could potentially work their way into an at large bid without winning the conference tournament if they were to advance far enough.  Xavier, as of this moment sits in the projected play-in game so just as before the loser of this game will be eliminated from bubble contention.  If you have not figured it out yet Thursday will start to give the bubble picture a lot more clarity.
Prediction: Xavier slips by Marquette keeping them in the projected field and giving them a potential bid sealing chance against Creighton(if they can get by Georgetown first).


Illinois v.s. Indiana
Thursday @ 12:00 A.M. ET
Indiana will most likely have to win the Big Ten tournament to get a bid but Illinois with a couple of wins stunningly may be able to steal a bid.  Illinois' has been tremendous down the stretch winning four of their last five games.  Illinois' resume is much stronger than most people realize because they get caught up in the 7-11 conference record(which the committee does not use as a factor).  The stat that may help Illinois the most is that they have 5 true road wins and 3 neutral site wins including wins @Michigan St., @Minnesota, @Iowa, and a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Missouri.  We know how much the committee cherishes road and neutral site wins so they may not be as far out as some expect if they were to win at least 2 in the Big Ten tournament.
Prediction: Illinois' defensive resurgence over the last month will provide them just enough to slip by Indiana.  After that the theme continues as they will have a chance to play #1 seed Michigan potentially for an at large birth.

One quick side not as well is that the Big 12 and Pac 12 tournaments will set up some huge games in the second round among bubble contenders but we will have to wait and see how the first round pans out in those tournaments before we know what is at stake.

Bubble Movers (Through Sunday March 2

This is a new piece I am trying to help explain why I have certain teams in or out and to help describe why I moved teams in the bracket.

Biggest Risers 

Xavier-   With their home win over Creighton on Saturday they basically solidified their spot in the field unless something drastic happens.  Before the weekend they were a part of the last four in category, but now are safely in as a 10 seed.

Oregon-  Oregon was able to pick up two road wins @UCLA and @USC this week. The UCLA game was a wild one that went to double OT when it never should have gotten that far.  We almost saw Oregon crush their own bubble hopes against a UCLA team that had it's top 2 players suspended but instead they were able to pull out a road win that still counts big on their resume.  Besides that while USC is a very poor team it does add another road win to their resume.  They went from the first four out category to one of the last four byes.

Dayton-  They may have been the biggest winner of the week.  After their blowout loss @St. Joseph's earlier in the week it appeared as if Dayton's tourney hopes were falling fast.  Instead they recorded a huge win over a very good Massachusetts team that moved them from the Next four out category all the way into the play-in game in tonight's projected bracket.  

Arkansas- If Dayton was not the biggest winner Arkansas certainly was.  They almost appeared out of nowhere in an SEC that seemingly appeared to only want 2 bids.  With their wins @Kentucky and at home to Georgia this week they jumped from off the radar to in the play-in game.

Indiana- With three games this week due to the rescheduling of the Iowa game the Hoosiers were able to get themselves into a situation where their final two regular season games(v.s. Nebraska @Michigan) could get them close to a bid.  Indiana was able to record two good wins against Iowa and Ohio State at home that got them into this situation.

Illinois- This may seem as a stretch to some of you but stick with me here as I explain.  Obviously like Indiana, Illinois has a lot of work to do but they have put themselves in a situation now where that seems possible.  Just 2 weeks ago Illinois was 3-10 in the Big Ten and completely out of even the NIT picture.  After wins @ Minnesota, Nebraska, and @ Michigan St.  Illinois has now put themselves in a position where they can make a move quickly.   Their last two games are v.s. Michigan and @Iowa.  If they were to win those games their resume would be surprisingly strong.


Biggest Fallers 

Kentucky-  While they are obviously still well in the field it is hard not to bring up the epic fall of the Wildcats that were once thought by "experts" to have a chance at going undefeated.  This week they lost at home to Arkansas and stunningly @ South Carolina to take them all the way from a 5 seed to the dreaded 8/9 game where a #1 seed would be in waiting.  They still have a chance in the SEC tournament to right the ship but they are falling fast.

Richmond- Richmond shows how fast a team can destroy their tournament profile.  Just last week Richmond was projected in the field as an 11 seed and even ranked high enough in the field to avoid the play- in game.  Now after losses @ George Mason and @Rhode Island, two RPI sub 150 teams, they are well outside of the field.  It is important to note though that their chances are not completely dead yet because their final two games are v.s. VCU and @ Dayton which are two teams projected in the field.   With how much damage they did though last week they would probably need both to get back into serious consideration.

North Carolina St.- For some time N.C. St. sat just outside of the field but after this week they have completely ruined any at large chance they dreamed of unless they go on a big run in the ACC tournament.  Early in the weak they had a huge opportunity v.s. North Carolina to boost their profile and move into the field.  Despite that they lost to North Carolina their profile remained in tact until they were inexplicably beat at home by Miami.  The combination of the two losses puts them on the dark side of the bubble.

Bubble Watch Games of the Week(2/24-3/2)

Xavier @ St. John's 
      Tuesday 7 P.M. ET
With St. John's just outside of the projected field and Xavier sitting in the last four in this is an imperative matchup for both teams.  While Xavier sits in the field currently it is highly unlikely they would stay in the field the rest of this week with a loss here.  On the other hand St. Johns has an opportunity to push themselves most likely back into the field if they can win at home in this top 50 RPI  matchup.  Either way it is most likely that the losing team in this matchup will be on the outside looking in.
Prediction:  Xavier hangs on to pick up a top 50 road win and will get themselves out of the First Four round in Dayton.  St. Johns will slip farther back and need a huge surge to receive an at large bid.

Dayton @ St. Josephs
         Tuesday 7 P.M. ET
At the same time and date as the Xavier/St. John's game another pivotal matchup takes place for these two A10 foes.  While St. Josephs currently sits comfortably in the field and Dayton sits in the last four in the line between the 9-11 seeds is very small and every game down the stretch is imperative.  As the A10 plays out it is hard to imagine 7 A10 teams will ultimately make the field of 68 as I have projected now.  This game is particularly important for Dayton for that reason because as of now they are the last A10 team into the field.  It is important to note that Richmond sits just ahead of Dayton in the field so it could play out that these two may be playing for the 6th and final bid for the conference.

Prediction:  St. Joseph's holds serve at home and we begin to the see the final fall of Dayton that will ultimately keep the A10 from receiving an astounding 7 bids. It is important to note though that even if Dayton can't get the road win they have a huge opportunity at home versus Massachusetts on Saturday.

Georgetown @ Marquette 
        Thursday 9 P.M. ET
With the Big East having a huge log jam in the middle of the league nearly every game that pits these teams is a big opportunity for someone.  With only two locked up bids and Xavier hanging on it seems as if another team will eventually emerge and snatch up a bid.   Marquette as of now sits as the last team in the field and Georgetown sits just a stones throw away from the field.  The most certain thing to come from this game is that the loser will be out of the next projected field.  This should be an interesting matchup because both teams have seen a surge in the second half of the season.

Prediction: Marquette will win at home and begin to solidify their bid while Georgetown falls out of contention to 7-9 in a league that only has two sure fire bids.


     

Bubble Watch: Games of the Week

There are no more important games for bubble teams than those in which they have to play other teams who are searching for the same final spots in the tournament.   These are the kind of games where a team often looks back and can point to  as the reason they made the tournament or missed the tournament.  As we know there is often little separation at the end of the bubble.  These are three games(of many) that will put two teams fighting it out to make the tournament against each other.


North Carolina St. @ Clemson
Tuesday, February 18 at 7:00 P.M. ET

This matchup pits two teams who seem to be on the outside of the field looking in and in Clemson's case several waves back from the field.  It is a huge opportunity for both but maybe no more than N.C. St., who truly appears to be right on the edge, to gain a big road win to send them over the edge.  Clemson has much more work to do but this could completely pop their bubble if they were to lose at home to another bubble team.


Xavier @ Georgetown
Saturday, February 22 at 11:30 A.M. ET

While at this point Xavier appears to be well in the field the jumble that is the middle of the Big East will eventually undoubtedly leave someone at home come March.  Georgetown at this point appears to be the team that is closest to the bubble that is just on the outside looking in.  This is a huge opportunity for Georgetown to knock another middle Big East team down a notch and to propel themselves back into next weeks field.  The stakes are no less for Xavier though as a win on the road at Georgetown would most likely solidify their bid with their stable resume.


Baylor @ West Virginia 
Saturday, February 22 at 1:30 P.M. ET

Baylor and West Virginia are rising quickly back up into contention for bids after rocky stretches in the Big 12.  The winner of this game will have a tremendous opportunity to appear in next weeks bracket.  In their cases their resumes seem eerily similar and this may be a tilting point for one.  While Baylor after their three wins in a row are currently projected into the field they are sitting in the Last 4 in category, a place where no one feels safe.  West Virginia two weeks ago was barely even in the conversation for a bid and now the streaking mountaineers could appear in the projected field for the first time if they win in Morgantown.