Bubble Movers (Through Sunday March 2

This is a new piece I am trying to help explain why I have certain teams in or out and to help describe why I moved teams in the bracket.

Biggest Risers 

Xavier-   With their home win over Creighton on Saturday they basically solidified their spot in the field unless something drastic happens.  Before the weekend they were a part of the last four in category, but now are safely in as a 10 seed.

Oregon-  Oregon was able to pick up two road wins @UCLA and @USC this week. The UCLA game was a wild one that went to double OT when it never should have gotten that far.  We almost saw Oregon crush their own bubble hopes against a UCLA team that had it's top 2 players suspended but instead they were able to pull out a road win that still counts big on their resume.  Besides that while USC is a very poor team it does add another road win to their resume.  They went from the first four out category to one of the last four byes.

Dayton-  They may have been the biggest winner of the week.  After their blowout loss @St. Joseph's earlier in the week it appeared as if Dayton's tourney hopes were falling fast.  Instead they recorded a huge win over a very good Massachusetts team that moved them from the Next four out category all the way into the play-in game in tonight's projected bracket.  

Arkansas- If Dayton was not the biggest winner Arkansas certainly was.  They almost appeared out of nowhere in an SEC that seemingly appeared to only want 2 bids.  With their wins @Kentucky and at home to Georgia this week they jumped from off the radar to in the play-in game.

Indiana- With three games this week due to the rescheduling of the Iowa game the Hoosiers were able to get themselves into a situation where their final two regular season games(v.s. Nebraska @Michigan) could get them close to a bid.  Indiana was able to record two good wins against Iowa and Ohio State at home that got them into this situation.

Illinois- This may seem as a stretch to some of you but stick with me here as I explain.  Obviously like Indiana, Illinois has a lot of work to do but they have put themselves in a situation now where that seems possible.  Just 2 weeks ago Illinois was 3-10 in the Big Ten and completely out of even the NIT picture.  After wins @ Minnesota, Nebraska, and @ Michigan St.  Illinois has now put themselves in a position where they can make a move quickly.   Their last two games are v.s. Michigan and @Iowa.  If they were to win those games their resume would be surprisingly strong.


Biggest Fallers 

Kentucky-  While they are obviously still well in the field it is hard not to bring up the epic fall of the Wildcats that were once thought by "experts" to have a chance at going undefeated.  This week they lost at home to Arkansas and stunningly @ South Carolina to take them all the way from a 5 seed to the dreaded 8/9 game where a #1 seed would be in waiting.  They still have a chance in the SEC tournament to right the ship but they are falling fast.

Richmond- Richmond shows how fast a team can destroy their tournament profile.  Just last week Richmond was projected in the field as an 11 seed and even ranked high enough in the field to avoid the play- in game.  Now after losses @ George Mason and @Rhode Island, two RPI sub 150 teams, they are well outside of the field.  It is important to note though that their chances are not completely dead yet because their final two games are v.s. VCU and @ Dayton which are two teams projected in the field.   With how much damage they did though last week they would probably need both to get back into serious consideration.

North Carolina St.- For some time N.C. St. sat just outside of the field but after this week they have completely ruined any at large chance they dreamed of unless they go on a big run in the ACC tournament.  Early in the weak they had a huge opportunity v.s. North Carolina to boost their profile and move into the field.  Despite that they lost to North Carolina their profile remained in tact until they were inexplicably beat at home by Miami.  The combination of the two losses puts them on the dark side of the bubble.

Wednesday Night Recap(2/19)

Boston College 62 Syracuse 59 OT
Syracuse lost a mind boggling game to 7-19 Boston College.  It was apparent that this was coming with how they have been playing but it was hard to imagine it would be at home to Boston College.  Nonetheless, despite probably the biggest upset of the season, Syracuse remains a #1 seed.

Outcome:  Syracuse remains a #1 seed but Arizona takes over as the #1 overall.

Creighton 85 Marquette 70
This game is mostly about what Marquette didn't get done as much as the win for Creighton.  This is just another example of a bubble team on the outside looking in not getting it done against a good opponent.  This does not hurt Marquette but eventually one of the many bubble teams will get a huge win and everyone else will not have much to complain about given everyones opportunities.

Outcome:Creighton continues to move up the bracket and solidify their place as a 3-4 seed.
                Marquette remains outside of the bracket, but within a stones throw.

West Coast Madness
The night's biggest movers and shakers certainly were going to occur out West with a slew of big matchups.

Arizona 67 Utah 63 OT
Arizona faced a scare against a solid Utah team on the road but was able to survive and maintain their place in the bracket.  Utah missed a huge chance to get back into the discussion for a bid.

UCLA 86 California 66
UCLA improved their resume in a rout at Cal and will most certainly move up in the bracket after collecting a top 50 win on the road.  Cal remains the same due to the quality of UCLA.

Oregon 78 Washington 71
Oregon collected a top 100 win at home and all of the sudden the ducks are back to 5-8 in conference play along with their stellar non-conference schedule they are back in the discussion for a bid.

Colorado 61 Arizona St. 52 
In a matchup of two teams that appear to be in the 6-10 range of the tournament picture Colorado collected another big win at home.  Colorado has proven that they are still a solid team without Dinwiddie going 6-4 in their 10 games without him.  Both teams appear to be in good shape for tournament bids.

New Mexico 68  UNLV 56
New Mexico continued to build their already solid tournament resume tonight at UNLV.  This game didn't help them as much as it would have hurt them but nonetheless on a day where many failed to help themselves New Mexico continues to press forward.

Other Games of Note:
Florida 71 Auburn 66;   St. Louis 89 George Mason 85 OT
On a night when the #1 team went down to an inferior opponent credit has to be given to Florida and St. Louis for holding on and not suffering a similar loss as Syracuse.  Both were given a scare but were able to find a way to win.

Illinois 62  Minnesota 49
Minnesota took a big hit at home losing to an Illinois team that had lost 10 of 11 coming into the game. Illinois was an rpi top 100 team so the loss is not as devastating as some believe but with such a huge mash up of teams at the end of the bracket that are deserving it is a body blow.  Minneosta now has a three game stretch of @Ohio St., Iowa, and @Michigan that will make or break their season.

A new bracket prediction will be released tomorrow so until then last nights can hold you over.  There should be a decent amount of change given the volume and importance of games that were played today and that will be played tomorrow.

The Baylor and Oregon Dilemma

   As we approach the end of the conference season and tournament time hundreds of people are trying to get inside of the selection committee's heads and figure out who will ultimately be selected for the tournament.  While the tournament itself is austere the selection process is difficult to grasp because of the continuous changing of the guard within the committee.  In particular this season we may be stuck with two teams, in Baylor and Oregon, who have sub .500 conference records but a strong case for the tournament.  Currently each sit at 4-8 in their respective conferences but lets imagine a couple of scenarios for each team.  First of all the reason both, at this point in the mock selection process, receive strong consideration for the tournament is because of their outstanding non-conference strength.  In Baylor's case they have three strong wins against Kentucky(Rpi 13), Colorado(Rpi 27), and Dayton (Rpi 59).  As an added bonus for Baylor all three of those wins were recorded in neutral sites.  In Oregon's case they recorded wins over Georgetown(Rpi 58), @Mississippi(Rpi 68),  and BYU (Rpi 40).  They also added lesser, but still contributing, non-conference wins over Illinois, San Francisco, Pacific, and UC Irvine.   I will skip a scenario where they go 8-10 in conference and receive a bid because that is not hard to imagine especially with teams like Illinois and Minnesota last year receiving bids with 8-10 conference records and similar strong non-conference records.  The question is could either receive a bid with a 7-11 conference record?  It's all fairly relative to who they beat down the stretch, what bids are stolen, and how the rest of the field pans out but could they do it?  The biggest issue I struggle with is will the committee truly only pay attention to the entire body of work or will a teams overall conference record have a determining factor?   While I can't say if a 7-11 conference record could provide the body of work necessary for a tournament bid I just have a hard time imagining despite what the resume may say that the committee would leave out a team from another power conference who went 10-8 with a lesser non-conference resume.  Ultimately despite the selection committee's rules I believe the overall body of work, on selection Sunday, would only go far if you ultimately don't finish at least near .500 in conference no matter what the entire body of work says.  We will see how this plays out in the coming weeks.