Bubble Watch Games of the Night Tuesday 02/10/15

Instead of packing in the best bubble match ups for the week into one post I am going to do this segment nightly for a couple of weeks because this early in the season most teams still have work to do to seal up an NCAA Tournament berth.  As the season progresses and we head towards conference tournament time I will make this a weekly post as we have a clearer view of which teams are locks and which are on the bubble.  Some days will have very few games of note but in particular any Saturday will be chalked full of bubble action.  In fact right away Monday night has literally zero bubble implication games.  The only games of note all contain teams I would consider at this time safely in the NCAA tournament or completely out so I will skip ahead to Tuesday.  

Memphis @ East Carolina- The only reason this game is of any note is because if Memphis were to lose to East Carolina their NCAA hopes would probably be completely eliminated.  Their resume currently is very poor and they can not withstand another bad loss.  They need to win this game just to have a chance to make their few chances against quality opponents mean something.

Prediction: Memphis wins to stay on the far edge of the bubble.  

Notre Dame @ Clemson- Clemson's resume is similar to Memphis in that it leaves a lot to be desired and is not particularly good at this point.  The difference is while Memphis has to win to not fall completely off the big board Clemson has a chance to greatly improve their resume.  Clemson desperately needs a quality win and they are close enough that if they were to win a game of this caliber it may propel them into the first four out or next four out categories.  Clemson is 9-1 at home this season but their best win has came against Arkansas who is not quite at Notre Dame's level.  Nonetheless Clemson will stay fairly relevant win or lose because even if they were to lose a loss to Notre Dame does not kill their middling resume.  

Prediction: Notre Dame wins but Clemson lives on the bubble for at least another week.  

Michigan St. @ Northwestern- It does not take long to understand why this is an important game for Michigan State if you read my post below.  Michigan State's profile is very mediocre at this point and they can not afford a terrible loss to lowely Northwestern.  While this win would not particularly help Michigan State it would keep them on the right side of the bubble and give them another road win which are always valuable no matter where they come.  

Prediction: Michigan State rebounds from their home loss to Illinois and finds a way against a Northwestern team that despite their conference record has been very difficult to beat.  

Kentucky @ LSU- LSU has by far the biggest opportunity to jump off of the bubble of any team on Tuesday.  If they were to find a way to beat Kentucky unless they were to completely collapse it would be almost impossible for them to miss the NCAA tournament.  As it sits not they are one of the last 4 teams in the tournament in my predictions and if they were to lose to Kentucky that would not be likely to change unless the teams below them gained quality wins that allowed them to pass them.  Either way this is LSU's biggest opportunity of the season to in one game solidify their profile.

Prediction: Kentucky stays undefeated but LSU gives them one of their biggest challenges of the season in Baton Rouge expect this game to be very close.  

Cincinnati @ Temple- This is our first game of the night that contains two teams who are both fairly safely in the field at this time.  The importance of this game is not that either team would fall from the field if they were to lose but rather at the end of the year these kind of games are often a deciding factor between common teams if they both were to finish on the bubble.  Regardless of who wins though both teams will most likely remain in the predicted field for the time being.  

Prediction: Temple continues their strong run and beats Cincinnati at home.  

Other games of note: 

Xavier @ Marquette 

 Dayton @ St. Louis 

These both are the exact same scenario as Memphis and Michigan State are in.  Both teams are in the field at the moment but neither team can afford a bad loss.  I think Dayton will be fine because St. Louis this season has looked pretty much completely inept.  Xavier on the other hand faces a Marquette team that can be dangerous at home and Xavier has played very inconsistent at times over the season.  

Prediction: Dayton wins easily at St. Louis and remains in the field.

                   Marquette wins over an up and down Xavier team and Xavier falls from the field for the time being.  

                  

Tournament Notes/Concerns

4/5 Seed travel 
If your team falls on the 4 seed or 5 seed line it may not be a good thing.  With the Midwest and Eastern United States compiling the vast majority of the 1-4 seeds(all but Arizona and San Diego St. at this point) that means that location will be a big issue for the 4 and 5 seed East Coast teams in particular.  With Arizona obviously going to play in San Diego and San Diego St. most likely playing in Spokane that leaves each of those sites sitting there when the 4 seed line come around.  What this means is more than likely some East coast team, if not two, is going to have to be shipped all the way to the West coast to play in the first couple of rounds of the tournament.  The top 4 seed lines are location protected, which means they play as close to home as possible, but with the majority of the West coast teams being in the middle of the bracket the 4 and 5 seed lines are not a fun place to be.

BYU
They may have the hardest resume of anyone in the country to figure out.  BYU has a tidy RPI of 35 and wins over Stanford, Texas, and Gonzaga but they also have the worst losses of any bubble team.  They have lost to Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, and Pacific which all can be characterized as bad losses.  Even worse Loyola, Pepperdine, and Portland are all outside of the top 150 which means BYU has stunningly lost to 3 really bad teams but that seems to be overlooked.  I think the determining factor is that not only does BYU have the worst losses of any bubble team but their three best wins are not extraordinary by any means.  I may stand alone in this thought but I think BYU needs to win the WCC tournament to get into the big dance.

Arkansas
The national pundits have been glowing about Arkansas as of late and  they have good reason to because they have been playing tremendous.  Arkansas has beaten 8 of it's last 9 opponents and that 1 loss came to Missouri by one.  The problem with the national media is they often do not remember to take into account the entire season and instead focus on the here and now when they claim that teams are now "locks for the tournament."  I would like to say I do have Arkansas in the field as of now but only as an 11 in the play-in game.  If they keep winning they will certainly receive a bid but at this point they most certainly need to keep winning because they may not be as close to a lock as some suggest.