Do or Die: First Round Conference Tournament Match-ups

With bubble teams galore meeting up in the first round of all of the major conference tournaments some will have their fates sealed while others will begin magical runs through March.  In this post I intend to outline the biggest first round match-ups in which the loser will fall permanently on the outside of the bubble.

Maryland v.s. Florida St. 
Thursday @ 12:00 P.M. ET
While Maryland would clearly need to win the ACC tournament to make it into the field Florida St. still has an opportunity to get an at large bid with 2 wins in the ACC tournament.  This is the case because the winner of this game will play 1 seed Virginia in the next round.  The combination of wins over a top 100 Maryland and a top 15 RPI Virginia would give Florida St. a very good chance to make the field.
Prediction: Florida St. will hold off Maryland in the first game in what I expect to be a low scoring very tight game.  That will set up an opportunity for Florida St. to control their own fate against Virginia.



St. John's v.s. Providence 
Thursday @ 2:30 P.M. ET
We could not ask for a better first round Big East matchup than this.  With these two teams both so near a bid this game should have an incredible amount of tension.  One thing we know for sure  is the loser will most certainly be completely eliminated from contention for an at large bid.  The winner will have a massive opportunity though v.s. Villanova in the next round to solidify a bid.  This game is a must watch.
Prediction: Providence, who sits ahead of St. John's on the bid board, wins knocking St. John's out of contention.  If this scenario plays out there is still an outside shot that if they lost to Villanova that they could receive an at large bid if several bids are not stolen.


Marquette v.s. Xavier 
Thursday @ 9:30 P.M. ET
If the tension in the first Big East matchup is not enough this one certainly will fill the void.  While Marquette is well outside of the field at the moment either team could potentially work their way into an at large bid without winning the conference tournament if they were to advance far enough.  Xavier, as of this moment sits in the projected play-in game so just as before the loser of this game will be eliminated from bubble contention.  If you have not figured it out yet Thursday will start to give the bubble picture a lot more clarity.
Prediction: Xavier slips by Marquette keeping them in the projected field and giving them a potential bid sealing chance against Creighton(if they can get by Georgetown first).


Illinois v.s. Indiana
Thursday @ 12:00 A.M. ET
Indiana will most likely have to win the Big Ten tournament to get a bid but Illinois with a couple of wins stunningly may be able to steal a bid.  Illinois' has been tremendous down the stretch winning four of their last five games.  Illinois' resume is much stronger than most people realize because they get caught up in the 7-11 conference record(which the committee does not use as a factor).  The stat that may help Illinois the most is that they have 5 true road wins and 3 neutral site wins including wins @Michigan St., @Minnesota, @Iowa, and a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Missouri.  We know how much the committee cherishes road and neutral site wins so they may not be as far out as some expect if they were to win at least 2 in the Big Ten tournament.
Prediction: Illinois' defensive resurgence over the last month will provide them just enough to slip by Indiana.  After that the theme continues as they will have a chance to play #1 seed Michigan potentially for an at large birth.

One quick side not as well is that the Big 12 and Pac 12 tournaments will set up some huge games in the second round among bubble contenders but we will have to wait and see how the first round pans out in those tournaments before we know what is at stake.

Bubble Watch Games of the Week (3/3-3/9)

Marquette @ Providence
Tuesday March 3, 9:00 P.M. ET
This is a massive game for both teams as they head into the final week of the season.  Providence after a good week last week sits in the Last Four In category of yesterdays bracket while Marquette continues to hang around just outside of the bracket.  With these two teams tied at 9-7 in Big East play on Selection Sunday the loser could look to this game as the reason they were left out while their counterpart was just inside the tournament.  It will be interesting to see if Providence can keep up their rise into the bracket or if Marquette can finally get over the hump and put themselves on the right side of the bubble. 
Prediction: Providence wins at home and begins to completely solidify their bid while Marquette misses out on another opportunity to push themselves into the dance. 

Nebraska @ Indiana
Wednesday March 4, 7:00 P.M. ET
The winner of this game will move closer to the field but more importantly whomever loses this game will most likely be eliminated from any chance at an at large birth.  That makes this matchup really intriguing because you have to imagine both teams will know how much is at stake.  Both teams have been trending up as of late.  Indiana has seemingly came out of no where to get into contention for a bid, but they can not afford another loss during the regular season.  Nebraska sits in slightly better shape(Next Four Out Category) but with the bubble shrinking every loss could be a death blow.
Prediction: Indiana holds serve at home once again and comes within reach of a bid with an extremely difficult game @Michigan that would give them a bid.  Nebraska with this loss falls to the point where they may need to win the BTT to receive a bid especially with their potential 2-9 road record. 

Utah @ California
Wednesday March 4, 11:00 P.M. ET
California slowly but surely has been slipping in the field and they appear to be now floating right around the play-in game or just above.  With that said Utah appears to finally be rising up the ranks into at least the conversation for a bid if they can keep winning.  This point may be null and void because Utah may have to win their conference tournament in order to get in but their resume does have some meat on it. 
Prediction: California holds serve at home and pretty much eliminates Utah from an at large berth.  It is particularly hard to see Utah winning this game because they are just 1-7 on the road with that win coming at lowly USC.  If Utah does not win this game they have no chance at all because the committee values road wins very highly. 

Missouri @ Tennessee
Saturday March 8, 4:00 P.M. ET
This matchup will basically decide if and who will be the fourth team from the SEC.  As long as Arkansas does not collapse it appears that they will find themselves in the field but the question all along was will there be a fourth SEC team?  Well this matchup came at a perfect time to leave an impression in the committees mind between two teams that essentially have the same resume.   Missouri in my projections is slightly ahead of Tennessee but without a doubt the winner of this game would jump the other. 
Prediction: Missouri comes into Tennessee and finally secures the SEC 4 bids in the dance.  Tennessee whose profile is slightly weaker than Missouri's falls well back with this loss and more than likely needs an SEC tournament title to make the field. 

Bubble Movers (Through Sunday March 2

This is a new piece I am trying to help explain why I have certain teams in or out and to help describe why I moved teams in the bracket.

Biggest Risers 

Xavier-   With their home win over Creighton on Saturday they basically solidified their spot in the field unless something drastic happens.  Before the weekend they were a part of the last four in category, but now are safely in as a 10 seed.

Oregon-  Oregon was able to pick up two road wins @UCLA and @USC this week. The UCLA game was a wild one that went to double OT when it never should have gotten that far.  We almost saw Oregon crush their own bubble hopes against a UCLA team that had it's top 2 players suspended but instead they were able to pull out a road win that still counts big on their resume.  Besides that while USC is a very poor team it does add another road win to their resume.  They went from the first four out category to one of the last four byes.

Dayton-  They may have been the biggest winner of the week.  After their blowout loss @St. Joseph's earlier in the week it appeared as if Dayton's tourney hopes were falling fast.  Instead they recorded a huge win over a very good Massachusetts team that moved them from the Next four out category all the way into the play-in game in tonight's projected bracket.  

Arkansas- If Dayton was not the biggest winner Arkansas certainly was.  They almost appeared out of nowhere in an SEC that seemingly appeared to only want 2 bids.  With their wins @Kentucky and at home to Georgia this week they jumped from off the radar to in the play-in game.

Indiana- With three games this week due to the rescheduling of the Iowa game the Hoosiers were able to get themselves into a situation where their final two regular season games(v.s. Nebraska @Michigan) could get them close to a bid.  Indiana was able to record two good wins against Iowa and Ohio State at home that got them into this situation.

Illinois- This may seem as a stretch to some of you but stick with me here as I explain.  Obviously like Indiana, Illinois has a lot of work to do but they have put themselves in a situation now where that seems possible.  Just 2 weeks ago Illinois was 3-10 in the Big Ten and completely out of even the NIT picture.  After wins @ Minnesota, Nebraska, and @ Michigan St.  Illinois has now put themselves in a position where they can make a move quickly.   Their last two games are v.s. Michigan and @Iowa.  If they were to win those games their resume would be surprisingly strong.


Biggest Fallers 

Kentucky-  While they are obviously still well in the field it is hard not to bring up the epic fall of the Wildcats that were once thought by "experts" to have a chance at going undefeated.  This week they lost at home to Arkansas and stunningly @ South Carolina to take them all the way from a 5 seed to the dreaded 8/9 game where a #1 seed would be in waiting.  They still have a chance in the SEC tournament to right the ship but they are falling fast.

Richmond- Richmond shows how fast a team can destroy their tournament profile.  Just last week Richmond was projected in the field as an 11 seed and even ranked high enough in the field to avoid the play- in game.  Now after losses @ George Mason and @Rhode Island, two RPI sub 150 teams, they are well outside of the field.  It is important to note though that their chances are not completely dead yet because their final two games are v.s. VCU and @ Dayton which are two teams projected in the field.   With how much damage they did though last week they would probably need both to get back into serious consideration.

North Carolina St.- For some time N.C. St. sat just outside of the field but after this week they have completely ruined any at large chance they dreamed of unless they go on a big run in the ACC tournament.  Early in the weak they had a huge opportunity v.s. North Carolina to boost their profile and move into the field.  Despite that they lost to North Carolina their profile remained in tact until they were inexplicably beat at home by Miami.  The combination of the two losses puts them on the dark side of the bubble.