Tuesday nights bubble watch did not fail to live up to the hype. We saw LSU take Kentucky to the wire, Clemson almost add a signature win to their resume, Temple pick up a huge home win to solidify their profile and Memphis completely eliminate itself from at large contention. Overall the theme of the night was the top ranked teams escaping with wins over teams that desperately needed signature wins. In similar fashion Wednesday night is chalked full of opportunities for bubble teams.
Bubble Watch Games of the Night:
Miami @ Wake Forest- Miami faces a similar situation as many other bubble teams in that they need to win this game to avoid a bubble popping loss. While this would not completely kill their profile they have sustained several very poor losses this season and really can't afford another one at Wake Forest. This win wouldn't add a whole lot to their profile but any road win counts for something so it does have some value
Prediction: Miami slips by Wake Forest to remain in the field of 68 for now. I would not be surprised though if they were to lose given their struggles against inferior opponents.
Georgia @ Texas A&M- This is the ideal sort of game for a bubble watch where two teams who are squarely on the edge of the field face off. While neither would have their NCAA hopes dashed in this game whoever wins will a nice boost to their profile in particular because it is over a team either may be fighting against for one of the last spots in the field.
Prediction: I believe Georgia is actually better than their record indicated and will win this game on the road adding a very solid road win to their profile which will help them close in on securing a NCAA berth.
Virginia @ N.C. State- North Carolina State will be given the same challenge that LSU and Clemson received tonight. If they are able to capitalize and beat Virginia it will be the kind of quality win that not many teams are able to secure let alone teams on the bubble. It will be interesting to see how they fair because if they were to win they would have wins over Duke and Virginia and with two wins of that caliber it would be very difficult for them to miss the tournament.
Prediction: A beat up Virginia team wins on the road in another low scoring slugfest that they love so much. I imagine they will barely reach 50 but that's fine because it may be a struggle for N.C. St. to reach 40.
Wyoming @ San Diego St.- This may not appear to be as big of a bubble matchup as you may expect but I believe San Diego State's profile is actually considerably weaker than others. Also Wyoming has to win a number of games like this in order to have a real chance at an at-large berth despite their sterling overall record. Regardless we may begin to figure out more about the Mountain West after this game
Prediction: San Diego St. holds serve at home and and adds another top 100 RPI win that I believe they really need to begin to solidify their at-large profile.
Other Games of Note:
Massachusetts @ St. Bonaventure
Pittsburgh @ Louisville
Oregon St. @ UCLA
While none of these games have huge implications on the bubble they could help place teams closer to their goal of being relevant. In the case of Pittsburgh this would put them extremely close, but it was not worthy of it's own page because the probability of them winning @Louisville is very low. If Pitt was at home like N.C. State it would be worth more consideration. Nonetheless if they were somehow to win it would be a huge win for their bubble status.
Showing posts with label SEC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SEC. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Sunday, February 8, 2015
Bubble Watch Games of the Night Tuesday 02/10/15
Instead of packing in the best bubble match ups for the week into one post I am going to do this segment nightly for a couple of weeks because this early in the season most teams still have work to do to seal up an NCAA Tournament berth. As the season progresses and we head towards conference tournament time I will make this a weekly post as we have a clearer view of which teams are locks and which are on the bubble. Some days will have very few games of note but in particular any Saturday will be chalked full of bubble action. In fact right away Monday night has literally zero bubble implication games. The only games of note all contain teams I would consider at this time safely in the NCAA tournament or completely out so I will skip ahead to Tuesday.
Memphis @ East Carolina- The only reason this game is of any note is because if Memphis were to lose to East Carolina their NCAA hopes would probably be completely eliminated. Their resume currently is very poor and they can not withstand another bad loss. They need to win this game just to have a chance to make their few chances against quality opponents mean something.
Prediction: Memphis wins to stay on the far edge of the bubble.
Notre Dame @ Clemson- Clemson's resume is similar to Memphis in that it leaves a lot to be desired and is not particularly good at this point. The difference is while Memphis has to win to not fall completely off the big board Clemson has a chance to greatly improve their resume. Clemson desperately needs a quality win and they are close enough that if they were to win a game of this caliber it may propel them into the first four out or next four out categories. Clemson is 9-1 at home this season but their best win has came against Arkansas who is not quite at Notre Dame's level. Nonetheless Clemson will stay fairly relevant win or lose because even if they were to lose a loss to Notre Dame does not kill their middling resume.
Prediction: Notre Dame wins but Clemson lives on the bubble for at least another week.
Michigan St. @ Northwestern- It does not take long to understand why this is an important game for Michigan State if you read my post below. Michigan State's profile is very mediocre at this point and they can not afford a terrible loss to lowely Northwestern. While this win would not particularly help Michigan State it would keep them on the right side of the bubble and give them another road win which are always valuable no matter where they come.
Prediction: Michigan State rebounds from their home loss to Illinois and finds a way against a Northwestern team that despite their conference record has been very difficult to beat.
Kentucky @ LSU- LSU has by far the biggest opportunity to jump off of the bubble of any team on Tuesday. If they were to find a way to beat Kentucky unless they were to completely collapse it would be almost impossible for them to miss the NCAA tournament. As it sits not they are one of the last 4 teams in the tournament in my predictions and if they were to lose to Kentucky that would not be likely to change unless the teams below them gained quality wins that allowed them to pass them. Either way this is LSU's biggest opportunity of the season to in one game solidify their profile.
Prediction: Kentucky stays undefeated but LSU gives them one of their biggest challenges of the season in Baton Rouge expect this game to be very close.
Cincinnati @ Temple- This is our first game of the night that contains two teams who are both fairly safely in the field at this time. The importance of this game is not that either team would fall from the field if they were to lose but rather at the end of the year these kind of games are often a deciding factor between common teams if they both were to finish on the bubble. Regardless of who wins though both teams will most likely remain in the predicted field for the time being.
Prediction: Temple continues their strong run and beats Cincinnati at home.
Other games of note:
Xavier @ Marquette
Dayton @ St. Louis
These both are the exact same scenario as Memphis and Michigan State are in. Both teams are in the field at the moment but neither team can afford a bad loss. I think Dayton will be fine because St. Louis this season has looked pretty much completely inept. Xavier on the other hand faces a Marquette team that can be dangerous at home and Xavier has played very inconsistent at times over the season.
Prediction: Dayton wins easily at St. Louis and remains in the field.
Marquette wins over an up and down Xavier team and Xavier falls from the field for the time being.
Friday, March 7, 2014
Tournament Notes/Concerns
4/5 Seed travel
If your team falls on the 4 seed or 5 seed line it may not be a good thing. With the Midwest and Eastern United States compiling the vast majority of the 1-4 seeds(all but Arizona and San Diego St. at this point) that means that location will be a big issue for the 4 and 5 seed East Coast teams in particular. With Arizona obviously going to play in San Diego and San Diego St. most likely playing in Spokane that leaves each of those sites sitting there when the 4 seed line come around. What this means is more than likely some East coast team, if not two, is going to have to be shipped all the way to the West coast to play in the first couple of rounds of the tournament. The top 4 seed lines are location protected, which means they play as close to home as possible, but with the majority of the West coast teams being in the middle of the bracket the 4 and 5 seed lines are not a fun place to be.
BYU
They may have the hardest resume of anyone in the country to figure out. BYU has a tidy RPI of 35 and wins over Stanford, Texas, and Gonzaga but they also have the worst losses of any bubble team. They have lost to Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, and Pacific which all can be characterized as bad losses. Even worse Loyola, Pepperdine, and Portland are all outside of the top 150 which means BYU has stunningly lost to 3 really bad teams but that seems to be overlooked. I think the determining factor is that not only does BYU have the worst losses of any bubble team but their three best wins are not extraordinary by any means. I may stand alone in this thought but I think BYU needs to win the WCC tournament to get into the big dance.
Arkansas
The national pundits have been glowing about Arkansas as of late and they have good reason to because they have been playing tremendous. Arkansas has beaten 8 of it's last 9 opponents and that 1 loss came to Missouri by one. The problem with the national media is they often do not remember to take into account the entire season and instead focus on the here and now when they claim that teams are now "locks for the tournament." I would like to say I do have Arkansas in the field as of now but only as an 11 in the play-in game. If they keep winning they will certainly receive a bid but at this point they most certainly need to keep winning because they may not be as close to a lock as some suggest.
If your team falls on the 4 seed or 5 seed line it may not be a good thing. With the Midwest and Eastern United States compiling the vast majority of the 1-4 seeds(all but Arizona and San Diego St. at this point) that means that location will be a big issue for the 4 and 5 seed East Coast teams in particular. With Arizona obviously going to play in San Diego and San Diego St. most likely playing in Spokane that leaves each of those sites sitting there when the 4 seed line come around. What this means is more than likely some East coast team, if not two, is going to have to be shipped all the way to the West coast to play in the first couple of rounds of the tournament. The top 4 seed lines are location protected, which means they play as close to home as possible, but with the majority of the West coast teams being in the middle of the bracket the 4 and 5 seed lines are not a fun place to be.
BYU
They may have the hardest resume of anyone in the country to figure out. BYU has a tidy RPI of 35 and wins over Stanford, Texas, and Gonzaga but they also have the worst losses of any bubble team. They have lost to Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, and Pacific which all can be characterized as bad losses. Even worse Loyola, Pepperdine, and Portland are all outside of the top 150 which means BYU has stunningly lost to 3 really bad teams but that seems to be overlooked. I think the determining factor is that not only does BYU have the worst losses of any bubble team but their three best wins are not extraordinary by any means. I may stand alone in this thought but I think BYU needs to win the WCC tournament to get into the big dance.
Arkansas
The national pundits have been glowing about Arkansas as of late and they have good reason to because they have been playing tremendous. Arkansas has beaten 8 of it's last 9 opponents and that 1 loss came to Missouri by one. The problem with the national media is they often do not remember to take into account the entire season and instead focus on the here and now when they claim that teams are now "locks for the tournament." I would like to say I do have Arkansas in the field as of now but only as an 11 in the play-in game. If they keep winning they will certainly receive a bid but at this point they most certainly need to keep winning because they may not be as close to a lock as some suggest.
Monday, March 3, 2014
Bubble Watch Games of the Week (3/3-3/9)
Marquette @ Providence
Tuesday March 3, 9:00 P.M. ET
This is a massive game for both teams as they head into the final week of the season. Providence after a good week last week sits in the Last Four In category of yesterdays bracket while Marquette continues to hang around just outside of the bracket. With these two teams tied at 9-7 in Big East play on Selection Sunday the loser could look to this game as the reason they were left out while their counterpart was just inside the tournament. It will be interesting to see if Providence can keep up their rise into the bracket or if Marquette can finally get over the hump and put themselves on the right side of the bubble.
Prediction: Providence wins at home and begins to completely solidify their bid while Marquette misses out on another opportunity to push themselves into the dance.
Nebraska @ Indiana
Wednesday March 4, 7:00 P.M. ET
The winner of this game will move closer to the field but more importantly whomever loses this game will most likely be eliminated from any chance at an at large birth. That makes this matchup really intriguing because you have to imagine both teams will know how much is at stake. Both teams have been trending up as of late. Indiana has seemingly came out of no where to get into contention for a bid, but they can not afford another loss during the regular season. Nebraska sits in slightly better shape(Next Four Out Category) but with the bubble shrinking every loss could be a death blow.
Prediction: Indiana holds serve at home once again and comes within reach of a bid with an extremely difficult game @Michigan that would give them a bid. Nebraska with this loss falls to the point where they may need to win the BTT to receive a bid especially with their potential 2-9 road record.
Utah @ California
Wednesday March 4, 11:00 P.M. ET
California slowly but surely has been slipping in the field and they appear to be now floating right around the play-in game or just above. With that said Utah appears to finally be rising up the ranks into at least the conversation for a bid if they can keep winning. This point may be null and void because Utah may have to win their conference tournament in order to get in but their resume does have some meat on it.
Prediction: California holds serve at home and pretty much eliminates Utah from an at large berth. It is particularly hard to see Utah winning this game because they are just 1-7 on the road with that win coming at lowly USC. If Utah does not win this game they have no chance at all because the committee values road wins very highly.
Missouri @ Tennessee
Saturday March 8, 4:00 P.M. ET
This matchup will basically decide if and who will be the fourth team from the SEC. As long as Arkansas does not collapse it appears that they will find themselves in the field but the question all along was will there be a fourth SEC team? Well this matchup came at a perfect time to leave an impression in the committees mind between two teams that essentially have the same resume. Missouri in my projections is slightly ahead of Tennessee but without a doubt the winner of this game would jump the other.
Prediction: Missouri comes into Tennessee and finally secures the SEC 4 bids in the dance. Tennessee whose profile is slightly weaker than Missouri's falls well back with this loss and more than likely needs an SEC tournament title to make the field.
Tuesday March 3, 9:00 P.M. ET
This is a massive game for both teams as they head into the final week of the season. Providence after a good week last week sits in the Last Four In category of yesterdays bracket while Marquette continues to hang around just outside of the bracket. With these two teams tied at 9-7 in Big East play on Selection Sunday the loser could look to this game as the reason they were left out while their counterpart was just inside the tournament. It will be interesting to see if Providence can keep up their rise into the bracket or if Marquette can finally get over the hump and put themselves on the right side of the bubble.
Prediction: Providence wins at home and begins to completely solidify their bid while Marquette misses out on another opportunity to push themselves into the dance.
Nebraska @ Indiana
Wednesday March 4, 7:00 P.M. ET
The winner of this game will move closer to the field but more importantly whomever loses this game will most likely be eliminated from any chance at an at large birth. That makes this matchup really intriguing because you have to imagine both teams will know how much is at stake. Both teams have been trending up as of late. Indiana has seemingly came out of no where to get into contention for a bid, but they can not afford another loss during the regular season. Nebraska sits in slightly better shape(Next Four Out Category) but with the bubble shrinking every loss could be a death blow.
Prediction: Indiana holds serve at home once again and comes within reach of a bid with an extremely difficult game @Michigan that would give them a bid. Nebraska with this loss falls to the point where they may need to win the BTT to receive a bid especially with their potential 2-9 road record.
Utah @ California
Wednesday March 4, 11:00 P.M. ET
California slowly but surely has been slipping in the field and they appear to be now floating right around the play-in game or just above. With that said Utah appears to finally be rising up the ranks into at least the conversation for a bid if they can keep winning. This point may be null and void because Utah may have to win their conference tournament in order to get in but their resume does have some meat on it.
Prediction: California holds serve at home and pretty much eliminates Utah from an at large berth. It is particularly hard to see Utah winning this game because they are just 1-7 on the road with that win coming at lowly USC. If Utah does not win this game they have no chance at all because the committee values road wins very highly.
Missouri @ Tennessee
Saturday March 8, 4:00 P.M. ET
This matchup will basically decide if and who will be the fourth team from the SEC. As long as Arkansas does not collapse it appears that they will find themselves in the field but the question all along was will there be a fourth SEC team? Well this matchup came at a perfect time to leave an impression in the committees mind between two teams that essentially have the same resume. Missouri in my projections is slightly ahead of Tennessee but without a doubt the winner of this game would jump the other.
Prediction: Missouri comes into Tennessee and finally secures the SEC 4 bids in the dance. Tennessee whose profile is slightly weaker than Missouri's falls well back with this loss and more than likely needs an SEC tournament title to make the field.
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Bubble Movers (Through Sunday March 2
This is a new piece I am trying to help explain why I have certain teams in or out and to help describe why I moved teams in the bracket.
Biggest Risers
Xavier- With their home win over Creighton on Saturday they basically solidified their spot in the field unless something drastic happens. Before the weekend they were a part of the last four in category, but now are safely in as a 10 seed.
Oregon- Oregon was able to pick up two road wins @UCLA and @USC this week. The UCLA game was a wild one that went to double OT when it never should have gotten that far. We almost saw Oregon crush their own bubble hopes against a UCLA team that had it's top 2 players suspended but instead they were able to pull out a road win that still counts big on their resume. Besides that while USC is a very poor team it does add another road win to their resume. They went from the first four out category to one of the last four byes.
Dayton- They may have been the biggest winner of the week. After their blowout loss @St. Joseph's earlier in the week it appeared as if Dayton's tourney hopes were falling fast. Instead they recorded a huge win over a very good Massachusetts team that moved them from the Next four out category all the way into the play-in game in tonight's projected bracket.
Arkansas- If Dayton was not the biggest winner Arkansas certainly was. They almost appeared out of nowhere in an SEC that seemingly appeared to only want 2 bids. With their wins @Kentucky and at home to Georgia this week they jumped from off the radar to in the play-in game.
Indiana- With three games this week due to the rescheduling of the Iowa game the Hoosiers were able to get themselves into a situation where their final two regular season games(v.s. Nebraska @Michigan) could get them close to a bid. Indiana was able to record two good wins against Iowa and Ohio State at home that got them into this situation.
Illinois- This may seem as a stretch to some of you but stick with me here as I explain. Obviously like Indiana, Illinois has a lot of work to do but they have put themselves in a situation now where that seems possible. Just 2 weeks ago Illinois was 3-10 in the Big Ten and completely out of even the NIT picture. After wins @ Minnesota, Nebraska, and @ Michigan St. Illinois has now put themselves in a position where they can make a move quickly. Their last two games are v.s. Michigan and @Iowa. If they were to win those games their resume would be surprisingly strong.
Biggest Fallers
Kentucky- While they are obviously still well in the field it is hard not to bring up the epic fall of the Wildcats that were once thought by "experts" to have a chance at going undefeated. This week they lost at home to Arkansas and stunningly @ South Carolina to take them all the way from a 5 seed to the dreaded 8/9 game where a #1 seed would be in waiting. They still have a chance in the SEC tournament to right the ship but they are falling fast.
Richmond- Richmond shows how fast a team can destroy their tournament profile. Just last week Richmond was projected in the field as an 11 seed and even ranked high enough in the field to avoid the play- in game. Now after losses @ George Mason and @Rhode Island, two RPI sub 150 teams, they are well outside of the field. It is important to note though that their chances are not completely dead yet because their final two games are v.s. VCU and @ Dayton which are two teams projected in the field. With how much damage they did though last week they would probably need both to get back into serious consideration.
North Carolina St.- For some time N.C. St. sat just outside of the field but after this week they have completely ruined any at large chance they dreamed of unless they go on a big run in the ACC tournament. Early in the weak they had a huge opportunity v.s. North Carolina to boost their profile and move into the field. Despite that they lost to North Carolina their profile remained in tact until they were inexplicably beat at home by Miami. The combination of the two losses puts them on the dark side of the bubble.
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
The #1 Seed Debate
As we move farther along in the season in most years the one seeds separate themselves. While I think Arizona and Wichita St. at this moment are safely in as one seeds if any one of them of the choices were to lose that could quickly change. Syracuse and Florida on my big board remain as #1 seed currently but my bracket math is starting to make that fourth #1 seed image murky. The team that is competing for that last spot is Kansas. Now if you look at the bare essentials generally everyone believes that Kansas will be left out of that picture because they have six losses while Arizona, Syracuse, and Florida each have two and Wichita St. has none. That is the only factor that would keep Kansas from being a #1 seed and I will explain why.
Kansas has arguably played the toughest schedule in at least a decade. Not only do they play in the Big 12, the best conference in the country this year, but they also had the #1 Non-Conference Strength of schedule. What does this all add up to? It means they played an astronomical amount of top 100 opponents so lets break each of the #1 seed candidates by the math.
Kansas v.s. RPI top 25 7-5 Arizona v.s. RPI top 25 4-0
v.s. RPI top 50 12-6 v.s. RPI top 50 9-1
v.s. RPI top 100 17-6 v.s. RPI top 100 14-2
Florida v.s. RPI top 25 2-1 Syracuse v.s. RPI top 25 3-1
v.s. RPI top 50 5-2 v.s. RPI top 50 7-1
v.s. RPI top 100 13-2 v.s. RPI top 100 15-1
Wichita St. v.s. RPI top 25 1-0
v.s. RPI top 50 2-0
v.s. RPI top 100 6-0
While the numbers obviously show that Wichita St. clearly has an extremely weak resume I just can't imagine a scenario where the Selection Committee would put an undefeated potential 34-0 Wichita St. team anywhere except a #1 seed. It is important to note though if Wichita St. were to lose it's last regular season game or in the Missouri Valley Tournament they would most certainly not be a #1. Quite literally the 0 in their loss column is the only thing holding them on the top line.
Now with the Wichita St. scenario laid out lets move onto Arizona. I believe they have by far the strongest profile of any of the teams and for that reason they remain my top overall seed. While they lack the amount of games Kansas has played against the top 25, 50, and 100 their overall quality far surpasses Kansas. They have won 90% of the games they played against the Top 50 which is mind blowing while Kansas has won 50%. Their win percentage along with the strength of the PAC 12 leads me to believe that Arizona will be a #1 seed regardless of what happens down the line.
Comparing the other 3 teams is where things get interesting. While Florida and Syracuse have sterling records against the top 100 Kansas far surpasses both in top 25 and top 50 wins. They more than triple Florida in top 25 wins and double up Syracuse in the same category. The question then comes back to where started in this article do the 6 losses matter? I would argue in most cases having 4 more losses than either team is important but 5 of the 6 losses by Kansas were to top 25 RPI teams. The other was to RPI 36 Kansas State. Let me recap that the worst team that Kansas lost to is RPI 36 on the road. If we dig a little bit deeper out of 31 games against division 1 opponents this season Kansas will have played 3 teams ranked outside of the RPI 150.
v.s. RPI sub 150
Kansas 3-0
Florida 9-0
Syracuse 8-1
That number may be the most astonishing of all. We often say every game is a grind for power conference teams but every schedule in the nation pales in comparison to Kansas. They quite literally decided to play every good team they possibly could and we penalize them with a #2 seed because they lost 6 games when they played top 25 teams 9 more times than Florida and 8 more times than Syracuse?
There is still a lot to play out but figuratively if Kansas is to win out and win the Big 12 tournament with the addition of the quality wins it would most certainly take to do so regardless of what Syracuse or Florida do Kansas would have to be a #1 seed. There could also be an argument made that if Syracuse or Florida were to lose, with fewer opportunities to improve their resumes that Kansas could achieve a #1 seed that way as well. Overall we still have more time to evaluate each team but everyday Kansas appears to be making it harder to leave them off of the 1 line.
Kansas has arguably played the toughest schedule in at least a decade. Not only do they play in the Big 12, the best conference in the country this year, but they also had the #1 Non-Conference Strength of schedule. What does this all add up to? It means they played an astronomical amount of top 100 opponents so lets break each of the #1 seed candidates by the math.
Kansas v.s. RPI top 25 7-5 Arizona v.s. RPI top 25 4-0
v.s. RPI top 50 12-6 v.s. RPI top 50 9-1
v.s. RPI top 100 17-6 v.s. RPI top 100 14-2
Florida v.s. RPI top 25 2-1 Syracuse v.s. RPI top 25 3-1
v.s. RPI top 50 5-2 v.s. RPI top 50 7-1
v.s. RPI top 100 13-2 v.s. RPI top 100 15-1
Wichita St. v.s. RPI top 25 1-0
v.s. RPI top 50 2-0
v.s. RPI top 100 6-0
While the numbers obviously show that Wichita St. clearly has an extremely weak resume I just can't imagine a scenario where the Selection Committee would put an undefeated potential 34-0 Wichita St. team anywhere except a #1 seed. It is important to note though if Wichita St. were to lose it's last regular season game or in the Missouri Valley Tournament they would most certainly not be a #1. Quite literally the 0 in their loss column is the only thing holding them on the top line.
Now with the Wichita St. scenario laid out lets move onto Arizona. I believe they have by far the strongest profile of any of the teams and for that reason they remain my top overall seed. While they lack the amount of games Kansas has played against the top 25, 50, and 100 their overall quality far surpasses Kansas. They have won 90% of the games they played against the Top 50 which is mind blowing while Kansas has won 50%. Their win percentage along with the strength of the PAC 12 leads me to believe that Arizona will be a #1 seed regardless of what happens down the line.
Comparing the other 3 teams is where things get interesting. While Florida and Syracuse have sterling records against the top 100 Kansas far surpasses both in top 25 and top 50 wins. They more than triple Florida in top 25 wins and double up Syracuse in the same category. The question then comes back to where started in this article do the 6 losses matter? I would argue in most cases having 4 more losses than either team is important but 5 of the 6 losses by Kansas were to top 25 RPI teams. The other was to RPI 36 Kansas State. Let me recap that the worst team that Kansas lost to is RPI 36 on the road. If we dig a little bit deeper out of 31 games against division 1 opponents this season Kansas will have played 3 teams ranked outside of the RPI 150.
v.s. RPI sub 150
Kansas 3-0
Florida 9-0
Syracuse 8-1
That number may be the most astonishing of all. We often say every game is a grind for power conference teams but every schedule in the nation pales in comparison to Kansas. They quite literally decided to play every good team they possibly could and we penalize them with a #2 seed because they lost 6 games when they played top 25 teams 9 more times than Florida and 8 more times than Syracuse?
There is still a lot to play out but figuratively if Kansas is to win out and win the Big 12 tournament with the addition of the quality wins it would most certainly take to do so regardless of what Syracuse or Florida do Kansas would have to be a #1 seed. There could also be an argument made that if Syracuse or Florida were to lose, with fewer opportunities to improve their resumes that Kansas could achieve a #1 seed that way as well. Overall we still have more time to evaluate each team but everyday Kansas appears to be making it harder to leave them off of the 1 line.
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Wednesday Night Recap(2/19)
Boston College 62 Syracuse 59 OT
Syracuse lost a mind boggling game to 7-19 Boston College. It was apparent that this was coming with how they have been playing but it was hard to imagine it would be at home to Boston College. Nonetheless, despite probably the biggest upset of the season, Syracuse remains a #1 seed.
Outcome: Syracuse remains a #1 seed but Arizona takes over as the #1 overall.
Creighton 85 Marquette 70
This game is mostly about what Marquette didn't get done as much as the win for Creighton. This is just another example of a bubble team on the outside looking in not getting it done against a good opponent. This does not hurt Marquette but eventually one of the many bubble teams will get a huge win and everyone else will not have much to complain about given everyones opportunities.
Outcome:Creighton continues to move up the bracket and solidify their place as a 3-4 seed.
Marquette remains outside of the bracket, but within a stones throw.
West Coast Madness
The night's biggest movers and shakers certainly were going to occur out West with a slew of big matchups.
Arizona 67 Utah 63 OT
Arizona faced a scare against a solid Utah team on the road but was able to survive and maintain their place in the bracket. Utah missed a huge chance to get back into the discussion for a bid.
UCLA 86 California 66
UCLA improved their resume in a rout at Cal and will most certainly move up in the bracket after collecting a top 50 win on the road. Cal remains the same due to the quality of UCLA.
Oregon 78 Washington 71
Oregon collected a top 100 win at home and all of the sudden the ducks are back to 5-8 in conference play along with their stellar non-conference schedule they are back in the discussion for a bid.
Colorado 61 Arizona St. 52
In a matchup of two teams that appear to be in the 6-10 range of the tournament picture Colorado collected another big win at home. Colorado has proven that they are still a solid team without Dinwiddie going 6-4 in their 10 games without him. Both teams appear to be in good shape for tournament bids.
New Mexico 68 UNLV 56
New Mexico continued to build their already solid tournament resume tonight at UNLV. This game didn't help them as much as it would have hurt them but nonetheless on a day where many failed to help themselves New Mexico continues to press forward.
Other Games of Note:
Florida 71 Auburn 66; St. Louis 89 George Mason 85 OT
On a night when the #1 team went down to an inferior opponent credit has to be given to Florida and St. Louis for holding on and not suffering a similar loss as Syracuse. Both were given a scare but were able to find a way to win.
Illinois 62 Minnesota 49
Minnesota took a big hit at home losing to an Illinois team that had lost 10 of 11 coming into the game. Illinois was an rpi top 100 team so the loss is not as devastating as some believe but with such a huge mash up of teams at the end of the bracket that are deserving it is a body blow. Minneosta now has a three game stretch of @Ohio St., Iowa, and @Michigan that will make or break their season.
A new bracket prediction will be released tomorrow so until then last nights can hold you over. There should be a decent amount of change given the volume and importance of games that were played today and that will be played tomorrow.
Syracuse lost a mind boggling game to 7-19 Boston College. It was apparent that this was coming with how they have been playing but it was hard to imagine it would be at home to Boston College. Nonetheless, despite probably the biggest upset of the season, Syracuse remains a #1 seed.
Outcome: Syracuse remains a #1 seed but Arizona takes over as the #1 overall.
Creighton 85 Marquette 70
This game is mostly about what Marquette didn't get done as much as the win for Creighton. This is just another example of a bubble team on the outside looking in not getting it done against a good opponent. This does not hurt Marquette but eventually one of the many bubble teams will get a huge win and everyone else will not have much to complain about given everyones opportunities.
Outcome:Creighton continues to move up the bracket and solidify their place as a 3-4 seed.
Marquette remains outside of the bracket, but within a stones throw.
West Coast Madness
The night's biggest movers and shakers certainly were going to occur out West with a slew of big matchups.
Arizona 67 Utah 63 OT
Arizona faced a scare against a solid Utah team on the road but was able to survive and maintain their place in the bracket. Utah missed a huge chance to get back into the discussion for a bid.
UCLA 86 California 66
UCLA improved their resume in a rout at Cal and will most certainly move up in the bracket after collecting a top 50 win on the road. Cal remains the same due to the quality of UCLA.
Oregon 78 Washington 71
Oregon collected a top 100 win at home and all of the sudden the ducks are back to 5-8 in conference play along with their stellar non-conference schedule they are back in the discussion for a bid.
Colorado 61 Arizona St. 52
In a matchup of two teams that appear to be in the 6-10 range of the tournament picture Colorado collected another big win at home. Colorado has proven that they are still a solid team without Dinwiddie going 6-4 in their 10 games without him. Both teams appear to be in good shape for tournament bids.
New Mexico 68 UNLV 56
New Mexico continued to build their already solid tournament resume tonight at UNLV. This game didn't help them as much as it would have hurt them but nonetheless on a day where many failed to help themselves New Mexico continues to press forward.
Other Games of Note:
Florida 71 Auburn 66; St. Louis 89 George Mason 85 OT
On a night when the #1 team went down to an inferior opponent credit has to be given to Florida and St. Louis for holding on and not suffering a similar loss as Syracuse. Both were given a scare but were able to find a way to win.
Illinois 62 Minnesota 49
Minnesota took a big hit at home losing to an Illinois team that had lost 10 of 11 coming into the game. Illinois was an rpi top 100 team so the loss is not as devastating as some believe but with such a huge mash up of teams at the end of the bracket that are deserving it is a body blow. Minneosta now has a three game stretch of @Ohio St., Iowa, and @Michigan that will make or break their season.
A new bracket prediction will be released tomorrow so until then last nights can hold you over. There should be a decent amount of change given the volume and importance of games that were played today and that will be played tomorrow.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Tuesday Night Recap(2/18)
Clemson 73 North Carolina St. 56
Clemson ended up beating North Carolina St. by 17 moving them farther outside of the bubble. This was a game that would have helped North Carolina St. more than Clemson because a road win against a fellow bubble team would have really helped to bolster their profile. Instead they both appear to be in limbo and will have an uphill climb to make the field.
Outcome: North Carolina St. will most likely fall out of the first four out category.
Clemson receives a minor bump but still remains well outside of the field and still behind N.C. St.
George Washington 73 Richmond 65
George Washington receives a huge road win in the Atlantic 10 tonight. Their resume was already very strong but now they have an opportunity, if they finish strong, to potentially move as far as a 6-7 seed if they keep winning. The goal for them will be to win enough quality games down the stretch to hopefully avoid the 1-2 seed lines in the second round. Richmond on the other hand, while losing a huge opportunity at home to bolster their profile, does not take a big hit with this loss due to the quality of George Washington.
Outcome: George Washington receives a bump and will probably appear a seed line higher.
Richmond remains in the field for now but lost a great chance to improve their resume.
Other Games of Note:
Kentucky 84 Ole Miss 70
- Kentucky effectively ended Mississippi's small hope for an at large bid. Mississippi needed several quality wins at this point to reach the field and at this point that seems unlikely with few opportunities remaining.
Iowa St. 85 Texas 76
Iowa St. held serve at home in this one and will receive a small bump but regardless both teams remain in great shape for a 3-5 seed. The reason Iowa St. only receives a small bump is because the few teams in front of them all still have overall better resumes.
Villanova 82 Providence 79 2OT
Providence missed a huge opportunity to get a defining win that would have put them well into the field at this point. Instead Villanova survived and records a quality road win.
There are no major games being played in the 9ET time period. The only potential news will be if one of the top ranked teams(Duke, Virginia, Kansas, and San Diego St.) were to lose to the lesser opponent they play tonight. Also if Tennessee beats Georgia they will receive a very small bump but with how close they are to the field it may be enough to get them in we will have to see. Lastly the bracket seeds update will happen tonight after the San Diego St. game.
Clemson ended up beating North Carolina St. by 17 moving them farther outside of the bubble. This was a game that would have helped North Carolina St. more than Clemson because a road win against a fellow bubble team would have really helped to bolster their profile. Instead they both appear to be in limbo and will have an uphill climb to make the field.
Outcome: North Carolina St. will most likely fall out of the first four out category.
Clemson receives a minor bump but still remains well outside of the field and still behind N.C. St.
George Washington 73 Richmond 65
George Washington receives a huge road win in the Atlantic 10 tonight. Their resume was already very strong but now they have an opportunity, if they finish strong, to potentially move as far as a 6-7 seed if they keep winning. The goal for them will be to win enough quality games down the stretch to hopefully avoid the 1-2 seed lines in the second round. Richmond on the other hand, while losing a huge opportunity at home to bolster their profile, does not take a big hit with this loss due to the quality of George Washington.
Outcome: George Washington receives a bump and will probably appear a seed line higher.
Richmond remains in the field for now but lost a great chance to improve their resume.
Other Games of Note:
Kentucky 84 Ole Miss 70
- Kentucky effectively ended Mississippi's small hope for an at large bid. Mississippi needed several quality wins at this point to reach the field and at this point that seems unlikely with few opportunities remaining.
Iowa St. 85 Texas 76
Iowa St. held serve at home in this one and will receive a small bump but regardless both teams remain in great shape for a 3-5 seed. The reason Iowa St. only receives a small bump is because the few teams in front of them all still have overall better resumes.
Villanova 82 Providence 79 2OT
Providence missed a huge opportunity to get a defining win that would have put them well into the field at this point. Instead Villanova survived and records a quality road win.
There are no major games being played in the 9ET time period. The only potential news will be if one of the top ranked teams(Duke, Virginia, Kansas, and San Diego St.) were to lose to the lesser opponent they play tonight. Also if Tennessee beats Georgia they will receive a very small bump but with how close they are to the field it may be enough to get them in we will have to see. Lastly the bracket seeds update will happen tonight after the San Diego St. game.
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