Bubble Watch Games of the Week (3/3-3/9)

Marquette @ Providence
Tuesday March 3, 9:00 P.M. ET
This is a massive game for both teams as they head into the final week of the season.  Providence after a good week last week sits in the Last Four In category of yesterdays bracket while Marquette continues to hang around just outside of the bracket.  With these two teams tied at 9-7 in Big East play on Selection Sunday the loser could look to this game as the reason they were left out while their counterpart was just inside the tournament.  It will be interesting to see if Providence can keep up their rise into the bracket or if Marquette can finally get over the hump and put themselves on the right side of the bubble. 
Prediction: Providence wins at home and begins to completely solidify their bid while Marquette misses out on another opportunity to push themselves into the dance. 

Nebraska @ Indiana
Wednesday March 4, 7:00 P.M. ET
The winner of this game will move closer to the field but more importantly whomever loses this game will most likely be eliminated from any chance at an at large birth.  That makes this matchup really intriguing because you have to imagine both teams will know how much is at stake.  Both teams have been trending up as of late.  Indiana has seemingly came out of no where to get into contention for a bid, but they can not afford another loss during the regular season.  Nebraska sits in slightly better shape(Next Four Out Category) but with the bubble shrinking every loss could be a death blow.
Prediction: Indiana holds serve at home once again and comes within reach of a bid with an extremely difficult game @Michigan that would give them a bid.  Nebraska with this loss falls to the point where they may need to win the BTT to receive a bid especially with their potential 2-9 road record. 

Utah @ California
Wednesday March 4, 11:00 P.M. ET
California slowly but surely has been slipping in the field and they appear to be now floating right around the play-in game or just above.  With that said Utah appears to finally be rising up the ranks into at least the conversation for a bid if they can keep winning.  This point may be null and void because Utah may have to win their conference tournament in order to get in but their resume does have some meat on it. 
Prediction: California holds serve at home and pretty much eliminates Utah from an at large berth.  It is particularly hard to see Utah winning this game because they are just 1-7 on the road with that win coming at lowly USC.  If Utah does not win this game they have no chance at all because the committee values road wins very highly. 

Missouri @ Tennessee
Saturday March 8, 4:00 P.M. ET
This matchup will basically decide if and who will be the fourth team from the SEC.  As long as Arkansas does not collapse it appears that they will find themselves in the field but the question all along was will there be a fourth SEC team?  Well this matchup came at a perfect time to leave an impression in the committees mind between two teams that essentially have the same resume.   Missouri in my projections is slightly ahead of Tennessee but without a doubt the winner of this game would jump the other. 
Prediction: Missouri comes into Tennessee and finally secures the SEC 4 bids in the dance.  Tennessee whose profile is slightly weaker than Missouri's falls well back with this loss and more than likely needs an SEC tournament title to make the field. 

Bubble Movers (Through Sunday March 2

This is a new piece I am trying to help explain why I have certain teams in or out and to help describe why I moved teams in the bracket.

Biggest Risers 

Xavier-   With their home win over Creighton on Saturday they basically solidified their spot in the field unless something drastic happens.  Before the weekend they were a part of the last four in category, but now are safely in as a 10 seed.

Oregon-  Oregon was able to pick up two road wins @UCLA and @USC this week. The UCLA game was a wild one that went to double OT when it never should have gotten that far.  We almost saw Oregon crush their own bubble hopes against a UCLA team that had it's top 2 players suspended but instead they were able to pull out a road win that still counts big on their resume.  Besides that while USC is a very poor team it does add another road win to their resume.  They went from the first four out category to one of the last four byes.

Dayton-  They may have been the biggest winner of the week.  After their blowout loss @St. Joseph's earlier in the week it appeared as if Dayton's tourney hopes were falling fast.  Instead they recorded a huge win over a very good Massachusetts team that moved them from the Next four out category all the way into the play-in game in tonight's projected bracket.  

Arkansas- If Dayton was not the biggest winner Arkansas certainly was.  They almost appeared out of nowhere in an SEC that seemingly appeared to only want 2 bids.  With their wins @Kentucky and at home to Georgia this week they jumped from off the radar to in the play-in game.

Indiana- With three games this week due to the rescheduling of the Iowa game the Hoosiers were able to get themselves into a situation where their final two regular season games(v.s. Nebraska @Michigan) could get them close to a bid.  Indiana was able to record two good wins against Iowa and Ohio State at home that got them into this situation.

Illinois- This may seem as a stretch to some of you but stick with me here as I explain.  Obviously like Indiana, Illinois has a lot of work to do but they have put themselves in a situation now where that seems possible.  Just 2 weeks ago Illinois was 3-10 in the Big Ten and completely out of even the NIT picture.  After wins @ Minnesota, Nebraska, and @ Michigan St.  Illinois has now put themselves in a position where they can make a move quickly.   Their last two games are v.s. Michigan and @Iowa.  If they were to win those games their resume would be surprisingly strong.


Biggest Fallers 

Kentucky-  While they are obviously still well in the field it is hard not to bring up the epic fall of the Wildcats that were once thought by "experts" to have a chance at going undefeated.  This week they lost at home to Arkansas and stunningly @ South Carolina to take them all the way from a 5 seed to the dreaded 8/9 game where a #1 seed would be in waiting.  They still have a chance in the SEC tournament to right the ship but they are falling fast.

Richmond- Richmond shows how fast a team can destroy their tournament profile.  Just last week Richmond was projected in the field as an 11 seed and even ranked high enough in the field to avoid the play- in game.  Now after losses @ George Mason and @Rhode Island, two RPI sub 150 teams, they are well outside of the field.  It is important to note though that their chances are not completely dead yet because their final two games are v.s. VCU and @ Dayton which are two teams projected in the field.   With how much damage they did though last week they would probably need both to get back into serious consideration.

North Carolina St.- For some time N.C. St. sat just outside of the field but after this week they have completely ruined any at large chance they dreamed of unless they go on a big run in the ACC tournament.  Early in the weak they had a huge opportunity v.s. North Carolina to boost their profile and move into the field.  Despite that they lost to North Carolina their profile remained in tact until they were inexplicably beat at home by Miami.  The combination of the two losses puts them on the dark side of the bubble.

The #1 Seed Debate

   As we move farther along in the season in most years the one seeds separate themselves.  While  I think Arizona and Wichita St. at this moment are safely in as one seeds if any one of them of the choices were to lose that could quickly change.  Syracuse and Florida on my big board remain as #1 seed currently but my bracket math is starting to make that fourth #1 seed image murky. The team that is competing for that last spot is Kansas.  Now if you look at the bare essentials generally everyone believes that Kansas will be left out of that picture because they have six losses while Arizona, Syracuse, and Florida each have two and Wichita St. has none. That is the only factor that would keep Kansas from being a #1 seed and I will explain why. 

Kansas has arguably played the toughest schedule in at least a decade.  Not only do they play in the Big 12, the best conference in the country this year, but they also had the #1 Non-Conference Strength of schedule.  What does this all add up to?  It means they played an astronomical amount of top 100 opponents so lets break each of the #1 seed candidates by the math. 

                 Kansas   v.s. RPI top 25 7-5                        Arizona   v.s. RPI top 25 4-0             
                                v.s. RPI top 50 12-6                                     v.s. RPI top 50 9-1
                                v.s. RPI top 100 17-6                                   v.s. RPI top 100 14-2

                 Florida     v.s. RPI top 25 2-1                      Syracuse v.s. RPI top 25 3-1
                                 v.s. RPI top 50 5-2                                      v.s. RPI top 50 7-1
                                 v.s. RPI top 100 13-2                                  v.s. RPI top 100 15-1

            Wichita St.    v.s. RPI top 25 1-0
                                 v.s. RPI top 50 2-0
                                 v.s. RPI top 100 6-0

While the numbers obviously show that Wichita St. clearly has an extremely weak resume I just can't imagine a scenario where the Selection Committee would put an undefeated potential 34-0 Wichita St. team anywhere except a #1 seed.  It is important to note though if Wichita St. were to lose it's last regular season game or in the Missouri Valley Tournament they would most certainly not be a #1.  Quite literally the 0 in their loss column is the only thing holding them on the top line. 

Now with the Wichita St. scenario laid out lets move onto Arizona.  I believe they have by far the strongest profile of any of the teams and for that reason they remain my top overall seed.  While they lack the amount of games Kansas has played against the top 25, 50, and 100 their overall quality far surpasses Kansas.  They have won 90% of the games they played against the Top 50 which is mind blowing while Kansas has won 50%.   Their win percentage along with the strength of the PAC 12 leads me to believe that Arizona will be a #1 seed regardless of what happens down the line.

Comparing the other 3 teams is where things get interesting.  While Florida and Syracuse have sterling records against the top 100 Kansas far surpasses both in top 25 and top 50 wins.  They more than triple Florida in top 25 wins and double up Syracuse in the same category.  The question then comes back to where started in this article do the 6 losses matter?  I would argue in most cases having 4 more losses than either team is important but 5 of the 6 losses by Kansas were to top 25 RPI teams.  The other was to RPI 36 Kansas State.  Let me recap that the worst team that Kansas lost to is RPI 36 on the road. If we dig a little bit deeper out of 31 games against division 1 opponents this season Kansas will have played 3 teams ranked outside of the RPI 150.

                                                             v.s. RPI sub 150
                                                             Kansas  3-0
                                                              Florida  9-0
                                                            Syracuse 8-1

  That number may be the most astonishing of all.  We often say every game is a grind for power conference teams but every schedule in the nation pales in comparison to Kansas.  They quite literally decided to play every good team they possibly could and we penalize them with a #2 seed because they lost 6 games when they played top 25 teams 9 more times than Florida and 8 more times than Syracuse?

There is still a lot to play out but figuratively if Kansas is to win out and win the Big 12 tournament with the addition of the quality wins it would most certainly take to do so regardless of what Syracuse or Florida do Kansas would have to be a #1 seed.  There could also be an argument made that if Syracuse or Florida were to lose, with fewer opportunities to improve their resumes that Kansas could achieve a #1 seed that way as well.  Overall we still have more time to evaluate each team but everyday Kansas appears to be making it harder to leave them off of the 1 line. 

Wednesday Night Recap(2/19)

Boston College 62 Syracuse 59 OT
Syracuse lost a mind boggling game to 7-19 Boston College.  It was apparent that this was coming with how they have been playing but it was hard to imagine it would be at home to Boston College.  Nonetheless, despite probably the biggest upset of the season, Syracuse remains a #1 seed.

Outcome:  Syracuse remains a #1 seed but Arizona takes over as the #1 overall.

Creighton 85 Marquette 70
This game is mostly about what Marquette didn't get done as much as the win for Creighton.  This is just another example of a bubble team on the outside looking in not getting it done against a good opponent.  This does not hurt Marquette but eventually one of the many bubble teams will get a huge win and everyone else will not have much to complain about given everyones opportunities.

Outcome:Creighton continues to move up the bracket and solidify their place as a 3-4 seed.
                Marquette remains outside of the bracket, but within a stones throw.

West Coast Madness
The night's biggest movers and shakers certainly were going to occur out West with a slew of big matchups.

Arizona 67 Utah 63 OT
Arizona faced a scare against a solid Utah team on the road but was able to survive and maintain their place in the bracket.  Utah missed a huge chance to get back into the discussion for a bid.

UCLA 86 California 66
UCLA improved their resume in a rout at Cal and will most certainly move up in the bracket after collecting a top 50 win on the road.  Cal remains the same due to the quality of UCLA.

Oregon 78 Washington 71
Oregon collected a top 100 win at home and all of the sudden the ducks are back to 5-8 in conference play along with their stellar non-conference schedule they are back in the discussion for a bid.

Colorado 61 Arizona St. 52 
In a matchup of two teams that appear to be in the 6-10 range of the tournament picture Colorado collected another big win at home.  Colorado has proven that they are still a solid team without Dinwiddie going 6-4 in their 10 games without him.  Both teams appear to be in good shape for tournament bids.

New Mexico 68  UNLV 56
New Mexico continued to build their already solid tournament resume tonight at UNLV.  This game didn't help them as much as it would have hurt them but nonetheless on a day where many failed to help themselves New Mexico continues to press forward.

Other Games of Note:
Florida 71 Auburn 66;   St. Louis 89 George Mason 85 OT
On a night when the #1 team went down to an inferior opponent credit has to be given to Florida and St. Louis for holding on and not suffering a similar loss as Syracuse.  Both were given a scare but were able to find a way to win.

Illinois 62  Minnesota 49
Minnesota took a big hit at home losing to an Illinois team that had lost 10 of 11 coming into the game. Illinois was an rpi top 100 team so the loss is not as devastating as some believe but with such a huge mash up of teams at the end of the bracket that are deserving it is a body blow.  Minneosta now has a three game stretch of @Ohio St., Iowa, and @Michigan that will make or break their season.

A new bracket prediction will be released tomorrow so until then last nights can hold you over.  There should be a decent amount of change given the volume and importance of games that were played today and that will be played tomorrow.

The Baylor and Oregon Dilemma

   As we approach the end of the conference season and tournament time hundreds of people are trying to get inside of the selection committee's heads and figure out who will ultimately be selected for the tournament.  While the tournament itself is austere the selection process is difficult to grasp because of the continuous changing of the guard within the committee.  In particular this season we may be stuck with two teams, in Baylor and Oregon, who have sub .500 conference records but a strong case for the tournament.  Currently each sit at 4-8 in their respective conferences but lets imagine a couple of scenarios for each team.  First of all the reason both, at this point in the mock selection process, receive strong consideration for the tournament is because of their outstanding non-conference strength.  In Baylor's case they have three strong wins against Kentucky(Rpi 13), Colorado(Rpi 27), and Dayton (Rpi 59).  As an added bonus for Baylor all three of those wins were recorded in neutral sites.  In Oregon's case they recorded wins over Georgetown(Rpi 58), @Mississippi(Rpi 68),  and BYU (Rpi 40).  They also added lesser, but still contributing, non-conference wins over Illinois, San Francisco, Pacific, and UC Irvine.   I will skip a scenario where they go 8-10 in conference and receive a bid because that is not hard to imagine especially with teams like Illinois and Minnesota last year receiving bids with 8-10 conference records and similar strong non-conference records.  The question is could either receive a bid with a 7-11 conference record?  It's all fairly relative to who they beat down the stretch, what bids are stolen, and how the rest of the field pans out but could they do it?  The biggest issue I struggle with is will the committee truly only pay attention to the entire body of work or will a teams overall conference record have a determining factor?   While I can't say if a 7-11 conference record could provide the body of work necessary for a tournament bid I just have a hard time imagining despite what the resume may say that the committee would leave out a team from another power conference who went 10-8 with a lesser non-conference resume.  Ultimately despite the selection committee's rules I believe the overall body of work, on selection Sunday, would only go far if you ultimately don't finish at least near .500 in conference no matter what the entire body of work says.  We will see how this plays out in the coming weeks.