Bubble Watch Games of the Night Tuesday 02/10/15

Instead of packing in the best bubble match ups for the week into one post I am going to do this segment nightly for a couple of weeks because this early in the season most teams still have work to do to seal up an NCAA Tournament berth.  As the season progresses and we head towards conference tournament time I will make this a weekly post as we have a clearer view of which teams are locks and which are on the bubble.  Some days will have very few games of note but in particular any Saturday will be chalked full of bubble action.  In fact right away Monday night has literally zero bubble implication games.  The only games of note all contain teams I would consider at this time safely in the NCAA tournament or completely out so I will skip ahead to Tuesday.  

Memphis @ East Carolina- The only reason this game is of any note is because if Memphis were to lose to East Carolina their NCAA hopes would probably be completely eliminated.  Their resume currently is very poor and they can not withstand another bad loss.  They need to win this game just to have a chance to make their few chances against quality opponents mean something.

Prediction: Memphis wins to stay on the far edge of the bubble.  

Notre Dame @ Clemson- Clemson's resume is similar to Memphis in that it leaves a lot to be desired and is not particularly good at this point.  The difference is while Memphis has to win to not fall completely off the big board Clemson has a chance to greatly improve their resume.  Clemson desperately needs a quality win and they are close enough that if they were to win a game of this caliber it may propel them into the first four out or next four out categories.  Clemson is 9-1 at home this season but their best win has came against Arkansas who is not quite at Notre Dame's level.  Nonetheless Clemson will stay fairly relevant win or lose because even if they were to lose a loss to Notre Dame does not kill their middling resume.  

Prediction: Notre Dame wins but Clemson lives on the bubble for at least another week.  

Michigan St. @ Northwestern- It does not take long to understand why this is an important game for Michigan State if you read my post below.  Michigan State's profile is very mediocre at this point and they can not afford a terrible loss to lowely Northwestern.  While this win would not particularly help Michigan State it would keep them on the right side of the bubble and give them another road win which are always valuable no matter where they come.  

Prediction: Michigan State rebounds from their home loss to Illinois and finds a way against a Northwestern team that despite their conference record has been very difficult to beat.  

Kentucky @ LSU- LSU has by far the biggest opportunity to jump off of the bubble of any team on Tuesday.  If they were to find a way to beat Kentucky unless they were to completely collapse it would be almost impossible for them to miss the NCAA tournament.  As it sits not they are one of the last 4 teams in the tournament in my predictions and if they were to lose to Kentucky that would not be likely to change unless the teams below them gained quality wins that allowed them to pass them.  Either way this is LSU's biggest opportunity of the season to in one game solidify their profile.

Prediction: Kentucky stays undefeated but LSU gives them one of their biggest challenges of the season in Baton Rouge expect this game to be very close.  

Cincinnati @ Temple- This is our first game of the night that contains two teams who are both fairly safely in the field at this time.  The importance of this game is not that either team would fall from the field if they were to lose but rather at the end of the year these kind of games are often a deciding factor between common teams if they both were to finish on the bubble.  Regardless of who wins though both teams will most likely remain in the predicted field for the time being.  

Prediction: Temple continues their strong run and beats Cincinnati at home.  

Other games of note: 

Xavier @ Marquette 

 Dayton @ St. Louis 

These both are the exact same scenario as Memphis and Michigan State are in.  Both teams are in the field at the moment but neither team can afford a bad loss.  I think Dayton will be fine because St. Louis this season has looked pretty much completely inept.  Xavier on the other hand faces a Marquette team that can be dangerous at home and Xavier has played very inconsistent at times over the season.  

Prediction: Dayton wins easily at St. Louis and remains in the field.

                   Marquette wins over an up and down Xavier team and Xavier falls from the field for the time being.  

                  

Tuesday Night Recap(2/18)

Clemson 73 North Carolina St. 56
Clemson ended up beating North Carolina St. by 17 moving them farther outside of the bubble.  This was a game that would have helped North Carolina St. more than Clemson because a road win against a fellow bubble team would have really helped to bolster their profile.  Instead they both appear to be in limbo and will have an uphill climb to make the field.

Outcome:  North Carolina St. will most likely fall out of the first four out category.
                 Clemson receives a minor bump but still remains well outside of the field and still behind N.C. St.

George Washington 73 Richmond 65 
George Washington receives a huge road win in the Atlantic 10 tonight.  Their resume was already very strong but now they have an opportunity, if they finish strong, to potentially move as far as a 6-7 seed if they keep winning.  The goal for them will be to win enough quality games down the stretch to hopefully avoid the 1-2 seed lines in the second round.  Richmond on the other hand, while losing a huge opportunity at home to bolster their profile, does not take a big hit with this loss due to the quality of George Washington.

Outcome:  George Washington receives a bump and will probably appear a seed line higher.
                  Richmond remains in the field for now but lost a great chance to improve their resume.


Other Games of Note:
Kentucky 84  Ole Miss 70
- Kentucky effectively ended Mississippi's small hope for an at large bid.  Mississippi needed several quality wins at this point to reach the field and at this point that seems unlikely with few opportunities remaining.

Iowa St. 85 Texas 76
Iowa St. held serve at home in this one and will receive a small bump but regardless both teams remain in great shape for a 3-5 seed.  The reason Iowa St. only receives a small bump is because the few teams in front of them all still have overall better resumes.

Villanova 82  Providence 79 2OT
Providence missed a huge opportunity to get a defining win that would have put them well into the field at this point.  Instead Villanova survived and records a quality road win.

There are no major games being played in the 9ET time period.  The only potential news will be if one of the top ranked teams(Duke, Virginia, Kansas, and San Diego St.) were to lose to the lesser opponent they play tonight.  Also if Tennessee beats Georgia they will receive a very small bump but with how close they are to the field it may be enough to get them in we will have to see.  Lastly the bracket seeds update will  happen tonight after the San Diego St. game.



               

Bubble Watch: Games of the Week

There are no more important games for bubble teams than those in which they have to play other teams who are searching for the same final spots in the tournament.   These are the kind of games where a team often looks back and can point to  as the reason they made the tournament or missed the tournament.  As we know there is often little separation at the end of the bubble.  These are three games(of many) that will put two teams fighting it out to make the tournament against each other.


North Carolina St. @ Clemson
Tuesday, February 18 at 7:00 P.M. ET

This matchup pits two teams who seem to be on the outside of the field looking in and in Clemson's case several waves back from the field.  It is a huge opportunity for both but maybe no more than N.C. St., who truly appears to be right on the edge, to gain a big road win to send them over the edge.  Clemson has much more work to do but this could completely pop their bubble if they were to lose at home to another bubble team.


Xavier @ Georgetown
Saturday, February 22 at 11:30 A.M. ET

While at this point Xavier appears to be well in the field the jumble that is the middle of the Big East will eventually undoubtedly leave someone at home come March.  Georgetown at this point appears to be the team that is closest to the bubble that is just on the outside looking in.  This is a huge opportunity for Georgetown to knock another middle Big East team down a notch and to propel themselves back into next weeks field.  The stakes are no less for Xavier though as a win on the road at Georgetown would most likely solidify their bid with their stable resume.


Baylor @ West Virginia 
Saturday, February 22 at 1:30 P.M. ET

Baylor and West Virginia are rising quickly back up into contention for bids after rocky stretches in the Big 12.  The winner of this game will have a tremendous opportunity to appear in next weeks bracket.  In their cases their resumes seem eerily similar and this may be a tilting point for one.  While Baylor after their three wins in a row are currently projected into the field they are sitting in the Last 4 in category, a place where no one feels safe.  West Virginia two weeks ago was barely even in the conversation for a bid and now the streaking mountaineers could appear in the projected field for the first time if they win in Morgantown.